Bills vs Bengals Best Bets | Sunday Night Football Picks, Player Props

The NFL Week 9 Sunday slate concludes with an AFC playoff rematch, and our betting analysts are all over it with Bills vs Bengals best bets — Sunday Night Football picks, player props and more.

Bills vs Bengals odds have Buffalo as 1.5-point underdogs on the spread with a game total over/under of 50.5.

Action Network's experts are all over Bills player props, with two bets on Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid overs. Chris Raybon is also emphatically fading Bengals tight end Irv Smith Jr., with unders on receptions and receiving yards. We also have a pick for the over/under and a long-shot bet on potential overtime.

Needless to say, our staff of NFL analysts have it all in this Sunday Night Football betting preview. Our Bills vs Bengals best bets are below, and be sure to check out our additional SNF coverage.

Bills vs Bengals Best Bets | Sunday Night Football Picks, Player Props

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Nick Giffen

This game has the best overtime potential of any game this year so far. All the ingredients are here for a potential overtime shootout.

First, these are two potent offenses that have the ability to come back from multiple scores down and make up oddball score differences like eight, 11 or 15 points. That’s reflected in the game total of 50.5 points. However, there may not be as much of a need to come back from an oddball score thanks to these teams’ tendencies.

The Bengals have yet to attempt a 2-point conversion this season since kicker Evan McPherson is a perfect 14-for-14 on his extra-point attempts. McPherson's three-year extra-point percentage is right around league average being the biggest drawback to an overtime argument just shows how well everything is lining up in this one.

On the Bills' side, they have one of the best extra-point kickers in the NFL in Tyler Bass, who should get plenty of usage because Buffalo has gone for the 2 twice on 27 touchdowns. Both of those times were when the Bills were trying to turn a five-point game into a three-point game, making overtime more likely.

The Bills are also the unlucky team in our NFL Luck Rankings and as the road team with the second-largest Luck Gap of the week, they fit a trend that covers the spread at a 67% clip over a 102-game sample size over the last six years. That means this game could play even closer than the point spread suggests.

Since I like to keep at least a 10% expected return on investment, this is playable down to +1275.

Pick: Will There Be Overtime — Yes (+1360)

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By Matt Trebby

In eight games this season, Diggs has had seven or more receptions six times. He’s had eight or more receptions five times, including in three of the Bills’ last four games.

Two of the three times he didn’t get at least eight were blowout Bills wins over the Raiders (Week 2) and Dolphins (Week 4). The other game was in London, although Diggs still saw 12 targets in that one.

The Bengals have been good against opposing WR1s this season, and they held Diggs to just four catches for 35 yards in their impressive playoff win over Buffalo back in January.

In that game, though, Diggs saw 10 targets. I’d expect him to haul in seven catches more times than not when he gets that kind of volume. In fact, since the start of last season, Diggs has gotten double-digit targets 14 times. He failed to catch at least seven passes in just two of those games.

I love this bet at 6.5, even if we have to drink some juice on it, and I still kind of like it at 7.5 at FanDuel since it’s a plus number. Sean Koerner’s projections have Diggs pegged for 7.2 receptions, while Chris Raybon’s have him at 7.8.

Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (-130)

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By Ricky Henne

I’m going back to the well for the second straight week.

In fact, I’m backing the exact same bet, that Dalton Kincaid will exceed 3.5 catches despite significant juice. The rookie looked fantastic in Buffalo’s Thursday night win in Week 8 against the Buccaneers, hauling in five passes for 65 yards and a touchdown.

This much-hyped game could very well be a shootout, and I like Kincaid’s chances to get a ton of targets against a Bengals defense giving up the fifth-most catches per game to tight ends (5.86).

I’m actually backing Kincaid in other ways, as well. I’m taking the over on his yards (39.5 at -110) since the Bengals give up the fourth-most yards per game to the position (64.3). I’m also on an Anytime Touchdown Scorer at +225 odds since Cincinnati allows the second-most TDs per game to tight ends.

So, while my best bet is Kincaid catching at least four passes, feel free to tail either of the others if you prefer an option that doesn’t carry nearly as much juice.

Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)

By Stuckey

Ultimately, I expect fireworks on Sunday night, so I like the over up to 50.5 despite primetime unders apparently being free money these days (60-29 over the past two seasons).

With Burrow finally appearing 100% back to full health, both offenses have distinct advantages against overrated defenses that have taken a major step back in 2023. Without flukey turnovers or complete ineptitude in the red zone (where I think both defenses have overperformed), I expect both offenses to get to at least 24 in what could turn into a classic rare primetime shootout.

In regards to the side, I'd like the Bills at +3, but I don't see enough value to go to the window under a field goal even if my gut says Buffalo finds a way to exact its playoff revenge.

By Chris Raybon

Smith had a key fumble last week and is averaging just 2.0 receptions for 11.4 yards per game on the season.

Following last week’s rough performance, the Bengals signed Tanner Hudson to the active roster. Smith has produced a dismal 26.7% success rate on his 15 targets this season, while Hudson has produced a 66.7% mark on six targets.

Hudson and Smith play the same role, which likely signals a demotion for Smith.