Our Experts’ Favorite Monday Night Football Picks for Browns vs. 49ers
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nick Chubb
- Our experts reveal their favorite picks for Monday Night Football featuring the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers.
- Sean Koerner and Matthew Freedman highlight two prop bets while John Ewing makes an over/under pick.
Browns at 49ers Odds & Picks
- Odds: 49ers -5
- Total: 47.5
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds above as of noon ET on Monday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Week 5 ends with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. are fresh off a bye while Baker Mayfield and Co. are coming off a big divisional win over the Ravens last Sunday. But who has the edge? What are the top betting angles?
Our staff details their three favorite picks for tonight, featuring two prop bets and a pick against the spread.
Sean Koerner: Nick Chubb Under 88.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Chubb is the straw that stirs the Browns offense. I still consider him to be one of the NFL’s most underrated backs and took him at 18-1 to lead the league in rushing yards before the season started. However, this matchup is a tough spot for him.
The 49ers have been one of the better defenses of the young season and have held enemy backs to a 3.33 yards per carry. They’re also fresh off their bye week and likely game-planned to try to contain Chubb as he’s the Browns’ entire running game.I have Chubb projected for only 79 rushing yards, and part of that is due to him being more involved in the passing game in a game the Browns are likely going to be trailing for part — if not most — of.
Matthew Freedman: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 10 Rushing Yards (-124)
I love the under. Garoppolo is not at all a running quarterback. In his 11 starts with the 49ers, he has averaged just 4.5 rushing yards per game. In only one of those games has Garoppolo rushed for more than 10 yards: Week 3 of 2018 … when he tore his ACL scrambling out of the pocket.
You see what I’m saying?
Garoppolo is about a year removed from a season-ending injury he suffered because he tried to pick up some extra yards with his legs. I doubt he’s going to try that maneuver again anytime soon.
I think this line is so high because the Browns have allowed 25.5 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. But that number needs to be put in context. In Week 1, Marcus Mariota had 24 rushing yards against them. In Week 4, Lamar Jackson had 66. Both of those guys get yards on the ground. Those weeks are pretty much meaningless.
It’s true that in Week 3, the sloth-like Jared Goff had a season-high 14 yards on four carries. Based on how the Browns defend the passing game, they do allow for the opportunistic quarterback to slip out of the pocket and get yards on the ground. But they held Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk to zero yards in Week 2, and those two guys — perhaps more than any other quarterbacks — should have been looking to escape the pocket.
Ultimately, this prop comes down to Garoppolo and his tendencies. Even if the Browns give him a running lane, he’s still the type of quarterback who’s inclined to look for the pass.
In our FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Garoppolo projected for 5.1 rushing yards.
John Ewing: Browns +5
Are we sure the 49ers are good? Yes, they’re undefeated, but that could be a product of playing teams that are a combined 3-12.
The Niners have jumped out to a fast start but contrarian bettors can gain an edge wagering against such teams. According to our data at Bet Labs, it’s been profitable to bet against teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before but have a winning record and are favored in the first half of the season like San Francisco.
The Niners’ offense has been inconsistent and turnovers have been an issue as Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown four interceptions. Those kind of mistakes could sink bettors against an improving Browns team.
I’m taking the Browns plus the points and sprinkling a little on the moneyline.