How Sharps Are Betting Browns vs. Jets on MNF
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens.
- Following the news that Sam Darnold would be unable to play this week, the Browns-Jets line has seen some very interesting line movement.
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've found out how sharp bettors are getting down on the Monday Night Football game (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
After an ugly Week 1 loss to the Titans, the Browns have a golden opportunity to turn things around vs. the Trevor Siemian-led Jets. The line was hovering around the key number of three before the Sam Darnold news and has since moved up towards the key number of seven with Siemian set to start.
Are the pros jonesing to bet on Baker Mayfield’s Browns vs. a backup QB or do they feel that the dropoff from Darnold to Siemian — the ex-Pro-Bowl invitee — is not as much as the market thinks.
Browns vs. Jets Sharp Report
With 77% of bets tonight, Cleveland is as popular as Connie D’Amico. Clearly, the public is not fazed by the horrid performance last week and still has high hopes for the up-and-coming team.
Once Darnold was ruled out, the Brownies jumped from -2.5 to -4.5, but then slowly trickled up all the way to -7 over the next couple of hours. I’m sorry, did I miss the part when Sam Darnold became Tom Brady? Last I checked he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in 2018 and just threw for 175 yards on 45 passing attempts against the Bills.
The sharps seem to agree with me (or vice versa), as New York has been getting hit hard whenever the line has moved to the key number of seven. The pros like their key numbers, and quite frankly, Darnold is not worth 4.5 points to the spread — especially when that move is from +2.5 to +7.
We’ve tracked seven bet signals on New York since the initial Darnold line adjustment — five of which have been triggered on NYJ +7. At the time of writing, only a couple books are still hanging +7, but those are heavily juiced. If the line returns at some point during the day, I’d expect pros to strike again.
Before the season began, Darnold was valued at three points to the spread by one Vegas oddsmaker — and that factored in some assumed improvement on Darnold’s part. I didn’t believe anyone thought he was this valuable, which has me surprised that the public is still this heavy on Cleveland considering the big line movement.
Is this a market overreaction or is the public warranted in their decision? We shall see if Siemian can shake that rust off his arm and lead Jets backers to the window.