The Buffalo Bills (6-1) and Minnesota Vikings (6-1) wrap up NFL Week 9 on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Bills are 3-point favorites over the Vikings on the spread, with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Buffalo is a -178 moneyline favorite while Minnesota is a +150 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bills vs Vikings predictions and Monday Night Football picks for November 9.
Bills vs Vikings Prediction
- Bills vs Vikings pick: Bills Team Total Over 30.5 (+345) | Josh Allen TD Props (-105 to +550)
My Bills vs Vikings best bets include an alternate Bills team total over and Josh Allen TD props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Bills vs Vikings Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
- Bills vs Vikings Spread: Bills -3, Vikings +3
- Bills vs Vikings Total: 44.5
- Bills vs Vikings Moneyline: Bills -178, Vikings +150
Bills vs Vikings Monday Night Football Preview
Monday Night Football should be a fun one with two of the premier teams in the NFL this season, but I am pretty surprised by the number.
The Bills are laying -3.5 on the road — that feels like they are getting a little too much respect from the books. I only have Buffalo slightly ahead in my power ratings, and Minnesota's home-field advantage is pretty formidable.
I stared at Vikings +3.5 all week and felt like it should be an easy pick by my numbers, but I just can't do it.
For starters, we are getting Carson Wentz instead of Kyler Murray at quarterback for the Vikings. The Bills have a bad defense, but can the Vikings make them pay? I have the same gut feeling I had when the Vikings played the Lions: the opponent is going to score, so how does Minnesota keep up?
In this matchup, I really do think the Bills are going to put up points. We all know about the Brian Flores' pressure schemes, but the Vikings' run defense was exposed last week.
Detroit put tight ends in the backfield and leaned on a heavier run script, and Buffalo has the perfect setup to replicate that. The Lions went heavy 13 personnel and the Bills love 13, so expect to see a lot of Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes here in the Bills' version of that.
Buffalo has been the best power rushing attack in the league under head coach Joe Brady, and sometimes the best way around a pressure defense is just right through them.
Even when the pressure does get through, who is better equipped to handle it than Josh Allen?
Allen can shake off the pass rush, scramble away from it, or just run right through it.
Allen is an incredible 24-8-1 against the spread (75%) in his career against opponents allowing 20 points per game or less. He's shown that his teams are going to score, which again begs the question of whether the Vikings can keep pace.
Bills vs Vikings Prediction, Betting Analysis
Initially, this felt like an under to me, and that's the direction this total has gone. But I think if things go the Bills' direction, Buffalo could put up a big number.
The Bills have scored 24 or more points in every single game this year and have topped 33 in five of their seven games. The Buffalo team total is sitting at 24.5, but this great Vikings defense does not allow that often so there is not much value in playing the standard line.
If we are going to be right about this game script and the Bills do score, let's really make it worth our while. The Bills scored 30 or more points in over half their games last year, so we are taking an alternate over.
Pick: Bills Team Total Alt Over 30.5 (+345 at Caesars at time of betting)
Bills vs Vikings Player Props
If the Bills do score a bunch of points, why wouldn't Josh Allen find the end zone?
This projects as a good scramble game for Allen escaping pressure, making his Anytime Touchdown prop at -105 an insulting number. It is ridiculous to get him at near even odds.
Allen has nine touchdowns in seven games and has scored on the ground all but one game. Allen's legs account for a third of the Bills' offensive touchdowns this season. He has been priced around -165 in recent weeks, but the low game total is buying us value.
And if that base number is wrong, then all of his other touchdown odds are wrong too. That is the whole point of playing an escalator: it does the work for you if your read is right, with each hit pushing you closer to the next one.
We are playing Allen to score 2+ touchdowns at +500, something he has already hit three times this year. Finally, we are trying my white whale bet again: Allen to score the first touchdown.
Buffalo always takes the ball if they win the opening coin toss, while just about everyone else defers. That gives a little extra value to Buffalo First TD bets. I am going to hit one of these first touchdown bets eventually, and I think it could happen tonight with Allen's legs.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105 at Hard Rock)
Escalator #1: Allen 2+ TDs (+500 at FanDuel)
Escalator #2: Allen First TD (+550 at FanDuel)
