The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) and Chicago Bears (6-2) will face off tonight in primetime in the Week 9 edition of Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Bears are 6.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers on the spread, with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Chicago is a -270 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Tampa Bay is a +220 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs Bears predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Bears pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (-120)
My Buccaneers vs. Bears best bet is Tampa Bay to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Buccaneers vs Bears Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 +100 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Buccaneers vs Bears spread: Buccaneers +6.5 (-120), Bears -6.5 (+100)
- Buccaneers vs Bears total: over/under 47.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Buccaneers vs Bears moneyline: Buccaneers +220, Bears -270
Buccaneers vs Bears Sunday Night Football Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
We have another intriguing NFC primetime matchup on our hands tonight with the red-hot Bears hosting the surging Buccaneers.
That may sound familiar because the Bears will be playing in primetime for the third straight week. That's pretty uncommon.
For what it's worth, since 2003, teams playing their third consecutive primetime have gone 16-20 ATS. The past two victories have come against last year's Super Bowl participants with their most recent coming against Seattle with extra time to prepare.
This situation is a little trickier since the Bears will be traveling back from Seattle on a short week, which can only be a positive for Tampa. The less time you give Ben Johnson to prepare for an opponent, the better, if you're that opponent.
The Bucs have won two straight games in blowout fashion to get right back in the thick of the NFC South race. They've done so despite Baker Mayfield only completing seven total passes, including a grand total of zero last week in a monsoon against Atlanta.
The Bucs became the first team since 1974 to win a game without completing a single pass. That does make this handicap a little trickier since we really don't know if his previous thumb injury will be an issue when he has to throw more frequently, which he certainly will need to do tonight.
Tampa has ridden its running game, spearheaded by Bucky Irving, and defense during its recent surge. Coming into this week, the Bucs ranked first overall in Defensive DVOA with no glaring holes in their analytical profile. In fact, they actually rank in the top-2 in both drop back and rushing EPA.
Todd Bowles has this unit playing at an elite level at the moment, which will create a strength on strength matchup when the Bears have the ball.
Chicago Bears Betting Preview
There's not much more you can say about the Bears offense at the moment.
You could argue it's the best in the NFL with a healthy Caleb Williams, who has seemingly taken a massive leap in the second year of Ben Johnson's offense. He's playing within the structure of the scheme, while also still sprinkling in those off-script explosive plays when things break down.
Throw in a dominant ground game and this offense has juggernaut potential.
The Chicago defense does have some holes. After all, the Bears are only one of two teams that have allowed six or more yards per play (along with the Raiders).
However, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does seemingly have a good feel for this group and has been dialing up pressures at all the right times.
Plus, this unit should continue to trend up following the addition of Jeffery Simmons and a now healthy Kyler Gordon, who Allen will blitz off the edge to generate some of that aforementioned pressure.
It's never going to be an elite defense and there is likely some harsh third-down regression looming on the horizon. Chicago leads the NFL on those late downs by a wide margin at an insane 23.75%. Only one other team in the league has allowed a sub-30% and it's Minnesota at 29.75%.
However, as long as Chicago's offense stays heathy and Ben Johnson is on the sidelines, it doesn't need its defense to be elite. Just not a total disaster and this is a true Super Bowl contender.
Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the Bucs here at +6 or better. I mentioned that potential third-down regression, but I also believe the Bucs will have success on the ground here in a game that might not have a ton of possessions, which makes the road pup a bit more intriguing.
I have to imagine it's tough to get up emotionally for three straight primetime games, especially on a short week with travel after beating last year's conference winners. I wouldn't be totally surprised if the Bears were just a tad flat or off in the beginning parts of this game.
While I don't think Tampa's defense can completely shut down Chicago's offense, the Buccaneers are playing as well as anybody in the league on that side of the ball at the moment.
Even if I adjust for schedule, I have the Bucs rated as a top-3 defense this season — and in order to have a prayer against a Ben Johnson offense, you have to be stout against the run.
Tampa has certainly fit that profile for years under Bowles and does so once again this season (second in rush DVOA). I'm selling high on the Bears and taking the six points with Baker and the boys.
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (-120)
