Bears-Vikings Betting Preview: Can You Trust Kirk Cousins in a Big Spot?

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -4.5
• Over/Under: 40.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This line has been all over the place since opening. Initially, it line moved from Vikings -4 to -6.5, as folks might have thought the Bears would rest players.

But when Matt Nagy confirmed Wednesday that they wouldn't, steam hit the Bears, causing them to fall to +3.5.

There has since been a bit of buyback in the other direction, as Minnesota is back up to -4.5, but Chicago remains a very trendy dog, with 64% of the bets at the time of writing (see live data here).

The under has also been very popular (69% of bets, 94% of money), which has caused the total to drop from 41.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The 11-4 Bears are a popular underdog play. But according to our Bet Labs data, teams that have won 70% or more of their games (like Chicago) have gone 66-78-3 against the spread as an underdog in December or later in the season, including 9-15-1 (38%) ATS in Week 17. — John Ewing

Playoff picture: The Vikings and Eagles are battling it out for the NFC's sixth and final playoff spot. Minnesota clinches a berth with a win or a tie over the Bears. If the Vikings lose, they'd need the Eagles to lose or tie.

Our simulations give the Vikings a 63.8% chance of making the postseason.

The Bears might be doing a little scoreboard watching on Sunday, as they'd be locked into the 3-seed if the Rams beat Arizona as a 10-point favorite. So it's always possible Chicago pulls its starters if LA gets up big.

A loss from LA and a win by Chicago would land the Bears a first-round bye as the 2-seed. — Scott T. Miller

Did you know? Since 2003, teams that have won at least 70% of their games (like the Bears) have struggled on the road against the spread over the final two weeks of the regular season, going 39-55-2 (41%) ATS, failing to cover by 3.4 points per game. —  Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Bears' Pass Rush vs. Vikings' Offensive Line

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense would obviously prefer if Khalil Mack & Co. don't play a full allotment of snaps, but it might not matter considering the Vikings’ injury-riddled offensive line has allowed a pressure on 38% of Kirk Cousins' dropbacks this season — the eighth-worst mark in the league.

Cousins boasts the week's fifth-worst combined pressure rate among all quarterbacks.

Front-seven stalwarts Mack (No. 2), Akiem Hicks (No. 4), Eddie Goldman (No. 17) and Danny Trevathan (No. 25) all rank among Pro Football Focus' top-25 players at their position, while edge rusher Leonard Floyd (No. 53) and middle linebacker Roquan Smith (No. 43) are former top-10 picks with plenty of talent. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bears

The Bears' injured starters aren't expected to play the whole game. That includes wide receiver Allen Robinson (ribs), defensive tackle Bilal Nichols (knee) and stud safety Eddie Jackson (ankle).

The Vikings are also fairly healthy, as only defensive tackle Linval Joseph (knee), right tackle Mike Remmers (lower back), linebacker Eric Kendricks (hamstring) and stud corner Xavier Rhodes (groin) are in jeopardy of missing this game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge:The Vikings need to win, so they won't be letting up in this game.

It's still not an appealing spot with an implied team total of 22.5 against the Bears, though running back Dalvin Cook is an intriguing tournament play — especially with the Vikings utilizing him in the passing game.

He boasts a +2.37 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings with an 84% Leverage Rating in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bears +4.5

The Bears can still improve their playoff seeding with a win. And considering they still have something to play for, this line is considerably off where it should be.

The Action Network’s simulations make the spread Chicago -1.8, while our NFL power ratings have Minnesota at -2.7.

While not as drastic as the sims, the power ratings suggest there’s still plenty of value grabbing the Bears through the key numbers of 3 and 4. — PJ Walsh

I bet this line as soon as it opened at Chicago +6. PJ already laid out the math, and assuming the Bears are giving full effort and planning on winning the game, this was my highest edge this week.

There's no way I can make the Vikings better than the Bears on a neutral field. Now we just have to hope the Bears show up. — Travis Reed

I agree with PJ and Travis here — there's still some cushion, even if this line is adjusting for the possibility of the Bears not going all out should the Rams open up a big lead against the 49ers.

This line seems a bit inflated after Chicago struggled against San Francisco last week, but if you've been paying attention, you know the 49ers are better than public perception.

Cousins has struggled in big moments in the past, so I love betting against him versus an elite defense. This spread should be no more than a field goal. — Chris Raybon

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.