The Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) and Atlanta Falcons (3-5) will face off in the Week 9 NFL Madrid Game. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Bengals are favored by -3 on the spread, with the over/under set at 52.5 points. Cincinnati is a -166 moneyline favorite while Atlanta is a +140 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bengals vs Falcons prediction for Sunday, November, 8.
Bengals vs Falcons Prediction
- Bengals vs Falcons pick: Bengals -3 (-115)
My Bengals vs Falcons best bet is on Cincinnati to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Bengals vs Falcons Odds
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Bengals vs Falcons Spread: Bengals -3, Falcons +3
- Bengals vs Falcons Total: 52.5
- Bengals vs Falcons Moneyline: Bengals -166, Falcons +140
Bengals vs Falcons NFL Week 9 Preview
The sentiment surrounding the Bengals defense this season has been their marked improvement compared to the abysmal version of them we saw in 2025.
However, they are starting to show some concerning signs. The Bengals surrendered 6.3 yards per play to the struggling Titans a week ago, as they were fortunate to escape with a victory in overtime.
The question regarding the outlook of this defense moving forward comes down to the adjustments defensive coordinator Al Golden is willing to make on a game-by-game basis. Golden’s base defense has five defensive backs — the Bengals use nickel personnel on 82% of their defensive snaps. This puts an extreme amount of pressure on the defensive line to stymie the run.
The results have been hit or miss, and the advanced metrics bear that out. Incredibly, they simultaneously allow 2.1 yards before contact per attempt (the most in the league), while also stuffing runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at a 22% rate (also the most in the league).
On rushing attempts when Golden has opted to add a seventh defender to the box to assist in stopping the run, they have limited opposing running backs to just 3.8 yards per carry. That extra defender has also aided greatly in limiting explosive runs, with just 6% of runs versus this look going for 10 or more yards.
Simply put, my expectation is that Golden will put more of an emphasis on stopping the run by adding extra defenders near the line of scrimmage in order to slow down Bijan Robinson.
Robinson has the ability to break off a game-changing play on any touch, and the Bengals cannot afford to gamble with the volatility their defense has displayed this year.
Over their last four games, the Falcons rank 30th in offensive success rate on first and second down. If Cincy is committed to stopping the run on early downs, a greater onus will be put on Michael Penix Jr. to move the chains on third downs in dropback passing situations without the assistance of play-action.
Specifically in those 3rd-and-medium (3-7 yards to go) and 3rd-and-long (8+ yards to go) circumstances, the Bengals defense is predominantly in a one-high safety look, playing either Cover 3 or Cover 1.
Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski has failed to come up with answers against these looks — Atlanta averages -0.32 expected points added (EPA) per play versus one-high looks this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
Speaking of single-high safety looks, the Jeff Ulbrich-led Falcons defense also fancies such coverages — running them at the league’s third-highest rate. Joe Burrow has been highly efficient against these looks — completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.
The Falcons boast an 18.9% quick pressure rate — pressures occurring in 2.5 seconds or less. That ranks as one of the best five pass rushes in football.
However, Burrow is rarely pressured given his alignment, pocket movement and ability to process quickly. He is a master of getting the ball out of his hands in short order, with 55% of his passes coming within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the third-highest rate for any quarterback this season.
Bengals vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
As a handicapper, it can be a dangerous game to play when trying to project what a coach might decide to do in terms of adjustments, but it is quite clear in this instance for the Bengals.
Cincinnati has not been a poor tackling team, missing just 31 tackles in rush defense this year, ranking them 15th. The scheme is the change needed to prompt more consistent performance, and this perfectly aligns with what the Bengals need to do to win this particular game.
I expect the Bengals offense to operate comfortably due to their duo of elite receivers’ ability to win one-on-one matchups in conjunction with Joe Burrow’s high level of play. Very few quarterbacks are piloting their offense with this level of efficiency.
I will happily back the elite quarterback in this spot as a short favorite.
Pick: Bengals -3 (-115)
