Week 9 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top NFL prop bets for Sunday, featuring picks for Giants vs. Eagles, Jets vs. Chiefs, Raiders vs. 49ers, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 9 player props and best bets for Sunday, November 8.
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NFL Player Props Week 9
- SGP: Darius Cooper 50+ Receiving Yards / Greg Desrosiers 20+ Rushing Yards (+950, DraftKings)
- Breece Hall Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-131, DraftKings)
- Ashton Jeanty Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-116, DraftKings)
- Rashan Gary to Record a Sack (+337, DraftKings)
- Jessie Bates Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-149; DraftKings) | Over 5.5 | | Over 6.5 (+261)
Note for today:
I’m on a much tighter schedule, so there will be very limited to no pick notes for a lot of my plays. But for every prop, I’ve still done my usual deep dive where I like the number and the underlying factors, and I already expect plenty of these lines/prices to move quite a bit after I post them. I still like the underlying factors enough that I’d play them after a pretty decent sized move.
Darius Cooper Receiving Yards / Greg Desrosiers Rushing Yards
I'm going to log this as a parlay first, then track both props individually shortly after. Both have a pretty wide range of outcomes, so I like pairing the alternate overs, and there’s plenty of correlation here too.
Devin Singletary obviously gets a huge boost with Cam Skattebo (doubtful) likely out, but Tyrone Tracy is also on IR, so there’s room for another Giants RB to get a handful of carries. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gregory Desrosiers Jr. gets an early chance and potentially rides a hot hand.
Desrosiers showed a ton of juice for the Chargers in preseason, and this is one of those spots where the data can only tell you so much on a guy with zero career regular-season snaps.
This is where all that preseason betting/watching can actually pay off because he’s someone I thought could surprise if he ever got a real shot, and now we finally get a market on him.
On the other side, I’ve been saying Tanner McKee was perfect match for Makai Lemon, while Darius Cooper would get the sneaky boost if Joe Milton ever got a start.
Well, here we are.
Milton wants to push the ball downfield, so I could easily see him and Cooper connecting on 1-2 shots here.
Parlay: Darius Cooper 50+ Receiving Yards / Greg Desrosiers 20+ Rushing Yards (+950, DraftKings)
Breece Hall Rushing Attempts
This is a tricky one with Breece Hall back and my guy Braelon “Temu Derrick Henry” Allen playing too well to just go back to a limited role.
If anything, I expect Hall to dominate the passing-down work while Allen continues mixing in more on early downs and short-yardage situations.
That gives Hall a lower rushing attempts floor here, especially with the Jets playing as road underdogs.
Pick: Breece Hall Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-131, DraftKings)
Ashton Jeanty Rushing Yards
I expect Ashton Jeanty to bounce back from last week’s early down usage, but I still think this could be closer to a 50/50 split with Mike Washington Jr.
The 49ers run defense is no joke. Fred Warner might be playing at the highest level I’ve ever seen him play, which is saying something, and now they’ve added DeForest Buckner with Nick Bosa back as well.
This is a brutal matchup for Jeanty on the ground. I still think using him in the passing game as an extension of the run game makes the most sense here.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-116, DraftKings)
Rashan Gary Sack Prop
Rashan Gary tops my “Sack Lunch” rankings with 4.88 expected sacks on the season and only one actual sack to show for it. He’s due, and this could be the ultimate get right spot for the Cowboys.
Gary should see plenty of the Colts' Jalen Travis, who has allowed 30 pressures (second most in the league). Does that mean Gary is definitely getting a sack? Of course not. But he shouldn’t be +337 either.
I have the fair price closer to +200.
Pick: Rashan Gary to Record a Sack (+337, DraftKings)
Jessie Bates Tackles + Assists
This line is pretty crazy considering he’s cleared it in 6 of 8 games, and the Bengals are also a plus matchup for him.
I’m projecting Bates closer to 6.2 tackles + assists, so I’m also going to add 6+ and 7+ here.
Pick: Jessie Bates Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-149) | Over 5.5 (+135) | Over 6.5 (+261)
