The ninth week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 9, including picks for Jets vs Chiefs, Broncos vs Panthers, Rams vs Commanders, and Cardinals vs Seahawks.
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NFL Player Props — Week 9
- Bryce Young Rushing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
- Kyren Williams Receptions
- Drew Lock Longest Completion
Bryce Young Rushing Yards
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is averaging 4.9 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has faced a schedule of defenses that typically hold QBs 1.9 yards under their expected rushing total.
If you include Young in those games, that drops to 1.7 fewer yards per game than expected because Young has come in right at expectation this year, meaning he's outperformed his schedule by about 1.9 yards per game.
Now he faces a Broncos defense that allows the fourth-most rushing yards over expectation to QBs, with every single QB clearing this line.
Yes, they've faced a set of QBs that can run (Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes twice, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert), but they've also allowed 13 to Matthew Stafford, 16 to Jacoby Brissett, and 19 to Sam Darnold.
On average, the Broncos have allowed 8.5 yards over a QB's expectation, and Young isn't exactly immobile. He can tuck and run when he needs to.
I'm projecting Young for 13.1 yards with a median of 10, which probably sounds crazy, but this is one of the best possible matchups he can ask for since Denver has forced QBs to scramble at a higher rate than normal, and those tend to be the longer runs.
I love this over.
Pick: Bryce Young Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
I gave this out on the SGP Workshop in the Action Network Discord, but the price hasn't moved so I'm writing it up here too.
The Jets are the unlucky side in this game, which is an official Luck Rankings matchup, and as underdogs of more than a touchdown they fit the 20-4-2 ATS trend of luck sides that are dogs by at least 7.5 points.
That means I think they likely cover here, and they could put Mahomes in more passing situations than expected if they keep it close.
That's important, because the Jets have actually forced QBs to scramble at the fourth-highest rate over expected when adjusted for the QBs they've faced, so Mahomes should have to take off an extra time or two in this matchup.
I'm projecting Mahomes' to clear this north of 60% of the time, and I like the over 11.5 that's more widely available as well.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 10.5 or 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Kyren Williams Receptions
Kyren Williams only has three receptions over his last two games — but that's in part due to two blowouts against the Chargers and Raiders.
Las Vegas has been the stingiest team in the NFL in preventing passes to RBs relative to expectation, while teams just haven't needed to throw as much against the Chargers because they lose every game.
Aside from those two games, Williams has stayed under 2.5 receptions in just one other game. That was a Week 2 affair — a blowout win over the Giants — where Matthew Stafford attempted just 31 pass attempts against a defense that's the second-stingiest in preventing passes to RBs relative to expectation.
In every other game Williams has cleared this.
The spread in this game should mean it's close enough to keep Stafford honest, and the Commanders rank as the second-leakiest defense in passes to RBs relative to expectation.
I have Williams closer to four catches projected, so there's ladder potential here.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 2.5 receptions (-117)
- Find First Touchdown picks for every Week 9 game in my TD Model!
Drew Lock Longest Completion
Drew Lock has played two relatively full games and had longest completions of 45 and 82 yards in them. That 82 yarder (to Jaxon Smith-Njigba) came in Week 2 against Arizona.
The Cardinals rank in the bottom four in the league in allowing completions of 20+, 30+, and 40+ yards relative to expectation, and they are the single-worst team in the league in longest completion per game adjusted for the QBs they've faced.
Arizona allows the most yards per attempt over expected and the third-most yards after the catch when adjusting for competition faced.
Notably, when Sam Darnold was under center, this bet cleared in four of the other six Seahawks games as well.
Against a horrid defense, this is a good spot to bet on Smith-Njigba in a unique way as he's had the longest reception for the Seahawks in all but two games.
Pick: Drew Lock Longest Completion Over 33.5 (-113)
