Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off tonight as the Washington Commanders visit the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET, and prediction markets have the home team listed as a slight favorite, leaving plenty of room for surprises.
Before breaking down the odds for this game, including our top picks and player props, be sure to claim our Polymarket promo code and download the Action Network app to get the best trading insights across politics, sports, and entertainment. Now, let’s dive in.
Commanders vs. Giants Current Odds
New York trades as a 1.5-point favorite with 55% implied odds on the moneyline. Those numbers point to a tightly contested matchup that could come down to the final stretch, where fatigue and late-game lapses in concentration often make the difference.
This parity is reflected not only in the narrow 1.5-point spread, but also in the totals market, where traders are projecting a low-scoring affair with the over/under set at 40.5 points.
Jayden Daniels Props: Rushing Yards and Passing Yards
One of the top players to watch tonight is Washington's quarterback Jayden Daniels, especially considering he faces the Giants, one of the league's more vulnerable defenses against the run, allowing 123 rushing yards per game this season. Daniels walks into an ideal setup to deliver a big performance tonight in New York.
Targeting him to clear Over 39.5 rushing yards looks like a great pick, particularly with shares trading at 48 cents. The same goes for his passing yards contract. Buying Over 199.5 at 52 cents sounds like a decent trade to me.
An interesting trend is that Daniels holds an unbeaten record against the Giants. While streaks like that are made to be broken, and New York enters tonight’s game as the favorite, Daniels consistently seems to bring out his best game whenever he faces the Giants.
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Malik Nabers Props: Receiving Yards
The Giants’ wide receiver Malik Nabers is another big name for tonight’s matchup. Returning from last year's ACL tear, Nabers has cemented himself as New York's top receiver through 2026.
After a quiet September, he erupted with four consecutive 100-yard outings between Weeks 4 and 7. Heading into Week 10, Nabers boasts 53 receptions, 648 yards, and two touchdowns.
He is averaging 81 receiving yards per game this season. On Polymarket, Nabers clearing Over 79.5 receiving yards trades at 42 cents, making it a strong pick.
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Touchdown Markets: Rachaad White, Cam Skattebo and Isiah Likely
There are several intriguing options in this market, particularly in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer section. It might sound obvious, but one of my top targets here is Jayden Daniels, who is currently trading at 26 cents. Considering his numbers, this seems like a great deal.
In the current season, Isaiah Likely has been a dominant red-zone threat for New York. He leads all NFL tight ends with six touchdowns across eight games, highlighted by multi-score performances against Dallas and Washington, along with touchdown grabs against New Orleans and Philadelphia. Backing him at Anytime Touchdowns for 33 cents sounds like a steal.
What the Injury Report Means for the Props
New York enters Thursday Night Football nearly at full strength, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Cam Skattebo, left tackle Andrew Thomas and the aforementioned Nabbers all logging full practices. Only linebacker Malik Harrison remains questionable.
There is good news for Washington too: Jayden Daniels and tight end Chig Okonkwo are cleared to play. However, center Lucas Patrick and tight end Colson Yankoff are out. Patrick’s absence along the interior offensive line increased pressure risk against New York's front, which had an impact on Jayden Daniel’s player props.
Aside from these cases, the injury report offered no other major developments likely to impact this prediction market. The main players are healthy and ready for tonight’s matchup.
