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Dolphins vs Bills Picks: Prop Projections for Stefon Diggs, Every Key Player

Dolphins vs Bills Picks: Prop Projections for Stefon Diggs, Every Key Player article feature image
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Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs.

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks, including his player props.


Dolphins vs Bills Picks: Player Props

 

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Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater
Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert
Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Trent Sherfield
Mike Gesicki
Josh Allen
Devin Singletary/James Cook
Stefon Diggs
Gabe Davis
Isaiah McKenzie
Dawson Knox
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Dolphins Odds +13.5
Bills Odds -13.5
Moneyline +560/-800
Over/Under 43.5
Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via FanDuel.

Dolphins vs. Bills Matchup Analysis: DVOA Breakdown

Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 7 4
Pass DVOA 4 9
Rush DVOA 16 3
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 2 15
Pass DVOA 2 25
Rush DVOA 11 4

Dolphins

What They’re Going Up Against

  • Bills pace: 7th
  • Opposition plays allowed: 11th fewest
  • Blitz percentage: 26th
  • Pressure rate: 11th
  • Zone vs. Man: 17th zone, 15th man

QB Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater

Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out and Skylar Thompson will reportedly get the call once again. Making prop projections and analyzing this team is difficult at the moment as there are also injuries beyond quarterback for Miami.


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Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert is questionable with a broken thumb. There is a chance he will gut it out and play, but I’d imagine Mostert is unlikely to see a full workload, especially on passing downs. Jeff Wilson could be in for a workhorse role.


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WRs Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Trent Sherfield

Jaylen Waddle is dealing with an ankle injury but got a limited practice in on Wednesday. He’s expected to play through it, but it’s another injury we will have to monitor.


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TE Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki is a player who is trending up right now and I’m curious to see where his market ends up.

He ran a route on 67% of dropbacks last week, which was his highest rate since Week 7. The tight end has also seen a target on 20% of his routes over the last three weeks, which is well above his regular season rate (14%).

Gesicki could actually benefit with Thompson under center given his recent uptick in usage.


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Bills

What They’re Going Up Against

  • Dolphins pace: 17th
  • Opposition plays allowed: 12th most
  • Blitz percentage: 3rd
  • Pressure rate: 17th
  • Zone vs. Man: 32nd zone, 2nd man

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen suffered an elbow injury in Week 9 that seemed to slow him down a bit in the second half of the regular season. Last week, he got most of his pre-injury arm strength back and was more willing to take shots downfield — his average throw depth was 14.3 yards (second-highest of Week 18).

He finished with 254 passing yards, but he would’ve had a bigger day if it weren’t for Nyheim Hines’ two return touchdowns. While both kickoff TDs were ideal for the Bills in real life, it sapped the overall play/yardage volume of every one of their skill players.

I’d be interested in investing in Allen’s passing yardage to go over this week if Tua were playing. However, with Tua ruled out, this game possibly sets up as a run-heavy game script for the Bills, so I’ll probably stay away from Allen’s props.

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RB Devin Singletary/James Cook

Devin Singletary has been outplayed by rookie James Cook all season, but the Bills will likely lean on the veteran in the playoffs.

This is a backfield that is very tricky to project right now. There is also a chance we see Hines more involved after his incredible performance last week in the return game.

It’s a situation I’m probably going to avoid for now as I’m not seeing much value.


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WR Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs has a couple things going for him in this matchup:

  • Miami uses man coverage at the second-highest rate. Diggs is one of the few Bills players who sees an increase in production against man — 2.51 Y/RR against man; 2.42 Y/RR against zone.
  • The Dolphins blitz at the third-highest rate. Diggs’ target share goes up from 26.2% (no blitz) to 31.7% when teams blitz. That 5.4% increase is by far the highest jump for any Buffalo pass-catcher.

Unfortunately, books have already inflated Diggs’ props as they anticipate heavy action on his over, so I’m showing some slight value on under 79.5 (median projection of 73.5).

However, based on the underlying factors I laid out above, I’m not too interested in fading Diggs.


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WR Gabe Davis

With Josh Allen potentially over his elbow injury and willing to push the ball downfield, it’s likely good news for Gabe Davis going forward.

Davis, though, tends to fare much better against zone (1.66 Y/RR) than man (0.76), so his slump could continue. Plus, if the Dolphins are unable to put up points with Skylar Thompson under center, it will likely prevent Davis from seeing too many targets.

Davis has a wide range of outcomes in this game and this isn’t a market I’m seeing any value in right now.


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WR Isaiah McKenzie

McKenzie could present a buy-low opportunity this week after posting a lackluster 2/19/0 line in Week 18.

He saw his routes run rate shoot back up to 72% due to the Bills choosing to elevate John Brown over Cole Beasley. Plus, rookie Khalil Shakir saw his playing time get scaled back last week.

I can see McKenzie getting the same underlying usage in the opening round of the playoffs and I’m projecting him for 2.8 receptions with a median of 25.5 yards. The market currently has him at 22.5 yards, but I will be interested in backing his over if it falls below 20.5.


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TE Dawson Knox

Knox’s volatility makes him a tricky player to project. Here are his targets per route run rate from the last six games:

  • 5%
  • 3%
  • 23%
  • 22%
  • 24%
  • 8%

As you can see by his underlying usage, he is a boom-bust player.

I’m projecting Knox for 3.6 receptions and a median of 34.5 yards, so I’m currently showing some slight value on both of his overs.

That being said, nothing about this matchup points to him having a game closer to his floor or ceiling, so he isn’t a player I’m interested in investing in.


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