Seahawks vs 49ers Player Prop Picks: Christian McCaffrey, Geno Smith
Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey (left) and Geno Smith.
- Sean Koerner ran his numbers early in the week and found edges in Seahawks vs. 49ers player props.
- Koerner jumped on two picks, although the lines have moved significantly.
- Check out Koerner's NFL player props breakdown below.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Picks: Player Props
| Seahawks Odds | +9.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -9.5 |
| Moneyline | +385 / -500 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel. | |
Seahawks vs. 49ers Matchup Analysis: DVOA Breakdown
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 5 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 17 | |
| Rush DVOA | 13 | 25 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 14 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 5 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 2 | |
49ers
What They're Going Up Against
- Seahawks pace: 11th
- Opposition plays allowed: 3rd
- Blitz percentage: 30th
- Pressure rate: 19th
- Zone vs. Man: 2nd zone, 31st man
QB Brock Purdy
The Seahawks are a great matchup for the 49ers passing attack. They play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all thrive against zone.All three of those pass catchers are excellent after the catch, which helps Purdy rack up passing yards on high-percentage throws.
The Seahawks blitz at the third-lowest rate in the NFL, which will also help Purdy. He ranks 28th out of 36 quarterbacks in average net yards per attempt and 35th in QB Rating against the blitz, while he's first in those categories without the blitz.
Investing in Purdy here makes sense based on the matchup, but I think the 49ers may opt to be more run-heavy than usual since they're 10-point favorites and there's rain in the forecast. I would shy away from his props since he has a wide range of outcomes as a result.
It's worth noting that Purdy was an above-average runner in college, but he hasn't tapped into that as a prop and is yet to run for more than seven yards in a game. He's always a sneaky pick to run for a touchdown, and getting him at +600 as an Anytime Touchdown Scorer does offer some slight value. I'd say a fair price is +500.
RB Christian McCaffrey
The 49ers dialed back McCaffrey's usage in Week 18 once they had a commanding lead over the Cardinals, likely wanting to keep him fresh for the playoffs. San Francisco is going to lean heavily on its star RB here, considering it's the playoffs and we could see heavy rain.
This is also an easy matchup for McCaffrey against a Seahawks defense that ranks 25th in Rush DVOA. Since Week 10, Seattle ranks dead last in EPA allowed per rush.
Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel both returned from injury last week and were eased back into the 49ers offense. While I expect both will eat into McCaffrey's rushing volume moving forward, I still have CMC projected for 16.5 rush attempts and a median of 74.5 rushing yards.
I'm going to lock in his rushing yards over at 69.5 at FanDuel as of Thursday. That line will likely continue to go up before kickoff. It already went up from 67.5 at open on Tuesday.
I would bet this up to 70.5 and love his rushing upside this week against the Seahawks.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 69.5 Rushing Yards |
RB Elijah Mitchell
Mitchell was eased back into action last week, but he made every touch count with five rushes for 55 yards and two touchdowns. He's going to be the 49ers' No. 2 back in the playoffs, and I think he mixes into this offense more going forward.
I think the sharp way to attack Mitchell's rushing props would be to potentially back his live rushing yards overs. He's unlikely to see much work in the first half, but his usage could increase as the 49ers build a lead, likely getting most of his production in the second half.
WR Deebo Samuel
Samuel returned in Week 18 after missing three games due to knee and ankle injuries. He had a healthy 85% routes run rate but only had two catches for 20 receiving yards, chipping in one rushing attempt for four yards on the ground.
The Seahawks are a great matchup for Samuel, considering he typically fares better against zone coverage. He had 1.18 yards per route run against man coverage this season and 1.97 against zone.
Samuel's receiving prop opened at 38.5 but quickly moved up to 41.5 on Tuesday. I'm projecting Samuel's median closer to 45.5 rushing yards, and he could see more targets underneath if rain is a factor.
This isn't a prop I'm looking to lock in quite yet, though.
WR Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk gets the biggest downgrade on the 49ers offense based on the matchup. He tends to play better against man coverage compared to zone (2.23 yards per route run against man, 1.91 against zone), and he's also likely going to face Tariq Woolen the most in this matchup, which will funnel even more targets to his teammates.
Also, the rain would negatively affect Aiyuk, considering his Average Depth of Target is 10.3, which is the highest among Purdy's main targets. The rain would also mean Aiyuk would be less likely to be targeted by the rookie QB very often down the field.
Aiyuk's current 45.5 receiving yardstotal is in line with my projections. If it gets bet up in the range of 48.5-50.5, though, I may come in on his under.
TE George Kittle
Like Samuel, Kittle thrives against zone coverage, with 1.83 yards per route run against zone compared to 1.24 against man. The Seahawks also struggle against opposing tight ends, ranking 27th in DVOA against the position during the regular season.
Kittle has a ton of chemistry with Purdy, as well, having seen a target per route run rate of more than 20% in five straight games. He's the only top 49ers target who has seen a slight increase in target share from Purdy (+0.9%) when teams don't blitz, and Seattle doesn't do that often. Kittle also could see a few more targets from Purdy if rain is a factor.
I'm showing some slight value on Kittle's over on 40.5 receiving yards, projecting his median closer to 43.5. He has a ton of upside in this market.
Seahawks
What They're Going Up Against
- 49ers pace: 26th
- Opposition plays allowed: 28th
- Blitz percentage: 21st
- Pressure rate: 10th
- Zone vs. Man: 5th zone, 27th man
QB Geno Smith
Smith got off to a red-hot start to the season but has cooled off of late. Now, he faces a 49ers defense that is fifth in DVOA against the pass with rain in the forecast.
The main thing going in favor of Smith's over on his passing yards prop is a potential trailing game script. As 10-point underdogs, the Seahawks are likely going to be forced to throw at a much higher rate than usual.
However, Smith's efficiency could take a hit if/when Seattle gets down big since play-action passing has been one of the keys to his success this season. Smith ranks sixth in QB Rating and seventh in Average Net Yards per Attempt (out of 36 quarterbacks) on play action, but he'll be less likely to successfully sell that if Seattle is down big.
The 49ers also do a good job of dominating time of possession, limiting the overall volume of their opponents' plays. San Francisco allowed the fifth-fewest plays per game during the regular season.
Smith also may opt to scramble more than usual in a must-win game. He did so against the Rams in Week 18, rushing for a season-high 51 yards on four attempts in a playoff-like atmosphere against the Rams.
Also, Smith's No. 3 receiver is now Cade Johnson with Marquise Goodwin on injured reserve. This makes it easier for the 49ers to key in on the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
I'm projecting Smith's median passing yards closer to 225.5 for this game. Based on all of the factors going against him in this market, though, I do want to lock it in at 234.5. I think once we get more clarity on potential rain for this game, we'll see this prop plummet.
Pick: Geno Smith Under 234.5 Passing Yards |
RB Kenneth Walker
The Seahawks will want to attempt to establish the run with Walker early to set up their play-action passing game. The rookie will likely see most of his production in the first half, so he's a player worth monitoring in the in-game market with a view on potentially timing a bet on his rushing under.
As I pointed out earlier, the 49ers are very good at limiting the number of plays that their opponents run. This will be a prominent factor as San Francisco builds a lead.
One market where Walker could thrive is receiving yards. With Travis Homer on injured reserve, Walker has stayed in on passing downs at a higher rate. His 66% routes run rate in Week 18 against the Rams was his highest since Week 10.
I'm not seeing much value on Walker's rushing attempts or receptions props right now, but I think timing the market to take his yardage unders at the right time (right before the 49ers begin to build a big lead) in the live market will be the way to go here.
RB DeeJay Dallas
We might not see many props for Dallas, but it's worth noting that the Seahawks have used some packages with him taking snaps out of a Wildcat formation. Last week, he ripped off a 27-yard run against the runs out of the Wildcat.
I'm not sure what we can do to take advantage of this, but I'd say it may help our bet on Smith's passing yards under.
WR DK Metcalf
Metcalf tends to be more productive against man coverage (3.06 yards per route run) compared to zone (1.53), so this is a tough matchup for him since the 49ers play zone at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
Metcalf posted a 7-55-0 line the last time these teams met, meaning he failed to clear his current 63.5 receiving yards prop even with seven receptions.
I'm projecting Metcalf's median closer to 57.5 receiving yards, so I think there's value on his under, especially if there's rain.
WR Tyler Lockett
While this is a tough matchup on paper for the Seahawks offense, Lockett has the more favorable prospects of Seattle's top-two receivers.
Lockett fares much better against zone coverage (2.01 yards per route run) and will face Jimmie Ward frequently in the slot. Ward allowed an 81% catch rate during the regular season.
I'm showing value on Lockett's receiving yards under at 65.5, with a projected median of 57.5. However, it's unlikely both he and Metcalf go under their receiving yards totals. Based on the matchup, I'd lean toward Metcalf's under over Lockett's.
WR Cade Johnson
Johnson posted a 2-20-0 line against the Rams as the Seahawks' No. 3 receiver, running a route on 53% of dropbacks. However, there's a chance that either Laquon Treadwell or Dareke Young could see an increase in snaps this week, and that would come at Johnson's expense.
We might not see a market for Johnson until Saturday morning, and that's if there even is one this week. I'm projecting his median closer to 10.5 receiving yards, but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on him either way in this game.
TEs Noah Fant & Colby Parkinson
Fant's usage hasn't seen much of an increase since Will Dissly went on the injured reserve. He's still around the 60-65% range.
It's been Parkinson who has seen the biggest increase, sitting in that same range as Fant.
Fant is the better talent, so I'm projecting his median (25.5) for receiving yards slightly higher than Parkinson (21.5). I'm currently in line with these props, so I'm staying away for now.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Picks To Make Right Now
Christian McCaffrey Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
Geno Smith Under 234.5 Passing Yards
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