Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Travis Kelce

Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Travis Kelce

In the table below, you'll find each of my Dolphins vs Chiefs player props for Saturday's Wild Card Round matchup, which includes Dolphins vs Chiefs picks for Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Travis Kelce.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Our model's biggest playoff edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Best player prop bets for every game

SAVE 75% NOW!

At this point, even the most casual football fans are familiar with the prolonged success of Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, and they’ve participated in five straight AFC Championship Games – while winning two Super Bowls during that span.

However, if you are a casual fan tuning in for the first time this season, let me be the first to warn you: this Chiefs team is much different than those teams that reached five straight conference title games. After ranking in the top six in scoring and total offense in six straight campaigns, Kansas City ranked just 15th and 9th in those categories this season, respectively. 

A huge part of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles stem from the inability of their wide receivers to create separation, which has led to Patrick Mahomes forcing a ton of bad throws downfield.

Mahomes managed to keep a clean sheet in his final performance of the regular season with zero interceptions in a division-clinching win over Cincy. But prior to his latest outing, Mahomes threw an interception in four straight games, and he threw an interception in 11-of-16 contests overall. 

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)

ESPN Bet launched! Get ready for all the betting action with our ESPN BET promo code.

For a variety of reasons, the Dolphins actually remind me more of the high-powered Kansas City teams from years past than the current iteration of the Chiefs.

The Dolphins finished the season ranked second in scoring and first in total offense — on the other side of the ball, they ranked 22nd in points allowed and 10th in total yardage. Not to mention, they also snagged K.C.’s top wide receiver from that era, Tyreek Hill.  

That said, the biggest difference between the Kansas City teams of years past and this season's Miami team is the talent gap at quarterback between Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa.

Mahomes used to be able to put the Chiefs on his back and carry them to victory in shootouts when Travis Kelce and Hill were both by his side, whereas Tagovailoa continues to fold under pressure in big moments despite the plethora of dynamic weaponry at his disposal. 

Tagovailoa has thrown for 240 yards or less in four of the Dolphins’ last five games, and he completed just 21-of-34 pass attempts for 193 yards in an ugly offensive performance vs. Kansas City in Week 9.

Use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your NFL Wild Card betting action.

Kansas City’s offense has underperformed this season, to say the least – and Travis Kelce has been no exception.

Kelce averaged just 66 receiving yards on 6.2 receptions per game during the regular season, which is a pretty significant drop-off from averaging 75-plus yards in four of his last five campaigns. 

His struggles seemed to get worse down the stretch as he closed the regular season with three straight performances of less than 45 receiving yards. That said, the weather forecast is calling for wind chills near zero degrees on Saturday night, and I expect both QBs to struggle in an ugly game. 

Prior to his latest three-game stretch, Kelce had cleared the 60-yard receiving mark in eight of his last 11 outings, and when things get tough for Mahomes, he usually peppers his favorite target.

I believe this line is way too low despite Kelce’s struggles as of late.