Jets vs. Falcons Betting Guide: How to Play This High Over/Under

Jets vs. Falcons Betting Guide: How to Play This High Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons players take the field before a game

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

  • Spread: Falcons -1.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

The Falcons host the Jets in one of five NFL Preseason Week 2 matchups on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at key storylines for both teams, complete with a betting pick and daily fantasy analysis.

New York Jets

It’s safe to say new head coach Adam Gase is taking this whole preseason thing fairly seriously.

Did Adam Gase just take smelling salts before a preseason game? pic.twitter.com/gVINzrkcjW

— Andrew Perloff (@andrewperloff) August 8, 2019

Unfortunately, the same guy that drinks five to six 20-ounce coffees per day happens to also consistently run one of the league’s slowest-paced offenses.

Situation Neutral Pace Ranks (per Football Outsiders):

  • 2015 (Bears): 27th
  • 2016 (Dolphins): 31st
  • 2017 (Dolphins): 29th
  • 2018 (Dolphins): 31st

It’d make sense if Gase runs a faster offense with Sam Darnold than he did with Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill or Brock Osweiler. Still, failure to do so will inevitably hurt the fantasy production of Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon alike.

At least for Thursday night, the biggest problem facing the Jets comes down to their banged-up secondary. It’d behoove the Falcons to go after a pass defense that’s dealing with a myriad of issues:

  • No. 1 cornerback Trumaine Johnson (hamstring) is considered week-to-week.
  • The Jets chose not to re-sign Morris Claiborne.
  • The Jets released Derrick Jones on August 10.
  • Undrafted rookie Kyron Brown left Monday’s practice with an injury.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have quite the schedule in 2019, as they’ll play 13 games indoors — including each of their first nine matchups.

This is particularly great news for Matt Ryan, who has performed much better inside than outside throughout his career.

  • Outdoor (69 games): 63% cmp, 7.13 yards per attempt, 4.4% touchdown rate, 92.8 QB Rating, 17.3 fantasy points per game
  • Indoor (115 games): 67% cmp, 7.8 Y/A, 5.1% TD rate, 99.2 QB Rating, 18.2 FP per game

Of course, staying away from mother nature still hasn’t managed to propel the Falcons to preseason success during the Dan Quinn era: Their head coach is a pitiful 4-14 against the spread (ATS) in the preseason.

Ryan is expected to make his 2019 preseason debut, but I’m still inclined to take the under on the week’s second-highest game total.

PICK: Under 44.5

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