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Our football staff is focused on eight of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 3 on September 27.
First, we'll target divisional games with Bengals vs. Steelers and Texans vs. Colts in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Raiders vs. Saints and 49ers vs. Cardinals. We also have picks for Panthers vs. Browns, Lions vs. Jets, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 3 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 3
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Panthers vs Browns
I am aligned with the sharps that I speak to out here in Vegas who hammered the Under in this game early.
Everyone is rushing to crown this Panthers offense after they looked explosive over the first two weeks, but we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
Look at who they played: the Bears and Falcons — neither defense is exactly striking fear into opponents right now.
Carolina's offensive metrics are also inflated by fortunate starting field position, averaging drives starting at its own 43.5-yard line thanks to fluky turnovers and muffed punts.
The Panthers simply aren't going to get those same short fields on the road in a hostile environment.
On the other side of the ball, we know exactly what Deshaun Watson is at this point. He is inept at pushing the ball vertically, relying on a dink-and-dunk approach that naturally limits explosive plays and bleeds the clock.
Cleveland's defense was much more structured last week, reverting to its bread and butter by heavily featuring man coverage. That spells disaster for Bryce Young, who has historically struggled to process and beat man-to-man looks (posting a miserable -1.16 EPA per dropback against man coverage compared to zone).
At 42.5, the total has been pushed a couple of points too high by the public buying into Carolina's early offensive mirage. Expect the Browns to drag the Panthers into a sluggish, grinding rock fight.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
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Bengals vs Steelers
By Brit Devine
There has been a stark difference between these two rivals to start the season.
The Steelers offense has looked horrendous. Entering Week 3, they have the second-worst EPA (Expected Points Added) per play this season, only behind a horrific Falcons offense that was operated by Cooper Rush until this past Thursday Night Football.
Pittsburgh has the sixth-lowest EPA per play on runs as well, and it will be without RB Rico Dowdle. The run game should really struggle as the Steelers also have the second-lowest run-blocking win rate in the league (per ESPN).
The Bengals did a complete retooling on defense this season and have been actually good on that side of the ball for the first time in years.
Cincinnati owns the third-highest defensive run-blocking win rate in the league, which should really cause problems for the Steelers offense.
The Bengals offense hasn't hit full stride yet, but they really haven't needed to, as the defense is finally able to keep them in games.
Last season, Cincy's defense allowed the fourth-highest EPA per play — compare that to fourth-lowest EPA per play this season. It is very hard to overstate just how significant of a change this is for the Bengals.
The Steelers simply look like they will be unable to move the ball and sustain drives in this one, while the Bengals offense is more than capable of putting up points, even in a road divisional game against a solid defense.
Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
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Seahawks vs Commanders
By Nick Galaida
It's unclear how Washington plans to compete in this game.
The Commanders lost QB Jayden Daniels to a left elbow injury in Week 2. They also lost backup LT Brandon Coleman, RT Sam Cosmi, and DT Javon Kinlaw — none of whom returned to the game after their injuries.
Washington's offensive line will be down to its 3rd-string LT against one of the league's best pass rushes.
The Commanders secondary has been abysmal early in the season too, ranking 22nd in Success Rate and 29th in EPA/play allowed through the air.
The wrinkle in this game is that Sam Darnold is making his return after suffering a glute injury on opening night against the Patriots.
Another potential concern here is Seattle being a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but that is a minor concern relative to everything Washington has on its plate.
Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-105)
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Texans vs Colts
In Week 2 against the Chiefs, the Colts' Daniel Jones only had one deep pass attempt. It was a completion to Laquon Treadwell in overtime.
Not only does this signal a lack of explosiveness from the Colts, it also tells me if they only get one deep target in against the Chiefs, there is no way they move the ball down the field quickly against one of the best defenses in football.
The Colts have played man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. C.J. Stroud has completed 52.6% of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt this season against man coverage.
This likely signals a lack of offensive production from the Texans in this matchup.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
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Chiefs vs Dolphins
By Stuckey
I could rattle off 17,000 trends telling you why backing the Dolphins as an 11.5-point home underdog is the right side here.
The situational spot is begging us to bet Miami: you have the Chiefs coming off a grueling overtime game, traveling on the road into the brutal Florida humidity, and Patrick Mahomes is historically just 4-11 against the spread as a double-digit favorite.
However, I simply cannot put my money on the Dolphins right now. They don't do anything well. Their special teams unit is a disaster, and they honestly don't even look like a functional NFL roster.
Since I refuse to take the points with Miami, I think the best way to play this game is Under 46.5.
The stats back it up: since Tyreek Hill left the Chiefs, the Under is an incredible 41-24 when Kansas City is favored.
If the Dolphins somehow manage to cover that massive spread, it’s probably going to be correlated with the Under. That likely means the Chiefs came out flat, out of sync, and fatigued by the heat, allowing Miami to shorten the game by keeping the clock moving on the ground.
Even if the Chiefs go up by two scores early, this is what Andy Reid's team does best: they will gladly sit on a lead in the fourth quarter and methodically bleed seven minutes off the clock to end the game without running up the score.
Expect a lethargic Chiefs performance in the heat that keeps this total under the number.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
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Jets vs Lions
By Dylan Wilkerson
This is purely a schedule play.
The Lions have a rest advantage since they played on Thursday Night Football last week against the Bills, and the Jets are coming off of an overtime loss against the Packers on Sunday.
I will take the team with the extra rest here.
Pick: Lions -6.5 (-115)
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Cardinals vs 49ers
By Dylan Wilkerson
The 49ers have taken an interesting path to a 2-0 start to the season.
San Francisco beat the Rams in Australia after much conversation about the teams' conflicting traveling schedules. The Niners were also extremely efficient against the Dolphins, who may be the worst team in the NFL.
This is more of a fade on the 49ers than a play on the Cardinals.
The 49ers’ start to the season is likely due to variance more so than actual talent and success. I expect this divisional game to be closer than expected.
Pick: Cardinals +8.5 (-110)
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Raiders vs Saints
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Road 'Dog, Low Total After Bad Season" targets early-season value by capitalizing on the market’s lag in re-pricing teams that struggled the previous year.
When teams that won fewer than six games the prior season, like the Raiders, are priced as moderate road underdogs in lower-scoring environments (totals capped at 50) on a September Sunday, public bias tends to create a nice cover opportunity.
The lower total ensures a tighter game script where catching points holds premium value.
Today's matchup between the Raiders and Saints fits the system framework.
Las Vegas limped to a 3-14 record last year, but the public hasn't fully adjusted to its early 2-0 transformation under new head coach Klint Kubiak.
With Kirk Cousins operating behind a revamped offensive line anchored by Tyler Linderbaum and a healthy Colton Miller, the Raiders boast solid pass protection and are set to welcome back key playmaker Brock Bowers (questionable, knee) in the near future.
On the flip side, it's probably time to sell high on the Saints.
Coming off a pair of high-variance, emotional performances — a thrilling overtime battle with Detroit and a dramatic comeback over Baltimore — the Saints are favored by three points in this spot with the public eager to buy into their recent momentum.
However, New Orleans remains prone to sluggish first-half starts, playing right into a tighter game script where a single possession likely determines the outcome.
With the total sitting well under the system's cap at 43.5, the points are simply too valuable to pass up. Let's grab the Raiders +3 as they continue to outperform their preseason market perception.
Pick: Raiders +3 (-105)
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