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Here are my three favorite buy low / sell high bets for the Week 3 slate. I'll get into more in-depth matchup angles as the season progresses, but let's just keep it simple for this Sunday.
Continue below for my NFL picks and predictions for Week 3 on Sunday, September 27.
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NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions
Bengals vs Steelers
The Bengals are off to a hot start, but could easily have lost their home opener to the Bucs if not for four killer Tampa turnovers.
I could make a similar case last week at Houston. The Texans (without Nico Collins) out-gained the Bengals by more than 100 yards, but couldn't overcome 0-4 in both the red zone and on fourth down conversion attempts.
Bottom line, Cincy has enjoyed some good fortune en route to a 2-0 start to the 2026 season, as the offense still tries to find its footing. While the defense is certainly improved up front due to some major offseason splashes, the back end still has some holes.
The Steelers have looked very poor on offense, but extremely stout on defense under new coordinator Patrick Graham. Is there any hope for Aaron Rodgers and this offense today? I actually believe so.
For starters, it can't get much worse. However, there is a direct path to moving the ball with 12-personnel where Cincy struggled mightily last yer (among the worst in NFL history).
Pittsburgh will utilize heavy personnel as much as any team in the league, while the Texans and Bucs just didn't really lean into it during Cincy's first two games, even though the tight ends still had big days.
If Pittsburgh feeds its tight ends (and DK Metcalf doesn't drop everything), Pittsburgh can move the ball here — and I trust the defense to get stops at home, especially since they should win up front.
I project under a field goal, so give me the home divisional 'dog off a lopsided loss against the fortunate 2-0 team in its second straight roadie.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Vikings vs Buccaneers
This is my favorite play on the board.
I was high on Minnesota coming into the season, but thought it would take some time for the offense to find its footing with Kyler Murray. Well, he hasn't really played yet other than a brief period to start the season where he looked uncomfortable before leaving with an injury.
For what it's worth, we have also seen quarterback production suffer in the first game back from a concussion. Plus, it's already an offense that ranks dead last in early down success rate against a schedule that includes the Packers and Bears defenses. They can't run the ball and aren't healthy in the backfield.
The Vikings are also an extremely fortunate 2-0 squad. In the opener, Green Bay out-gained Minnesota 419-239 with a near 2.5 yards per play edge — and last week against Chicago, the Bears fumbled at the 1, had a field goal blocked and lost Caleb Williams to injury in a six-point loss.
By the way, that win over the Packers also looks much worse now after what we've seen from Green Bay since then.
Tampa hasn't looked good by any means, but could've easily beat Cincinnati without all of the fumbles in a game I graded as essentially a tie. They also dropped a touchdown and missed out on a game-winning drive last week against Cleveland after coming out of an extended weather delay.
We are just a few bounces away from the 2-0 Bucs hosting the 0-2 Vikings in which case there certainly wouldn't be a plus sign next to Tampa.
Additionally, I see Minnesota as one of the luckiest teams in the league, while Tampa sits as the single-most unluckiest to date.
Minnesota's opponents have gone 2-5 on fourth down and scored touchdowns on only 1 of 7 red zone trips. The Vikings also have a +3 turnover margin, while the Bucs sit at -4.
Don't be surprised if a few bounces go Tampa's way in the early-season Florida humidity against (which is generally an advantage) the dome Vikings.
Baker Mayfield needs to play better, but in a matchup of two blitzing defensive coordinators, he's historically fared much better against the blitz than Kyler Murray.
Baker has also performed significantly better against zone (especially without man beater Mike Evans), which he will see almost exclusively this week.
Give me the Bucs to right the ship at home.
Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
Cardinals vs 49ers
The 49ers have looked unstoppable to start the season with a pair of dominant victories over the Rams and Dolphins. Quarterback Brock Purdy has been almost flawless, leading the league in EPA per Play and Success Rate (at an absurd 66.7%).
However, one of those wins came against Miami, which almost doesn't count at this point, and the other came in Australia where travel could have had a real impact on the Rams (nobody will ever know).
Regardless, I'm selling high on San Francisco, especially after the latest wave of injuries, with the most notable being Nick Bosa, who will miss some time following a calf injury suffered in practice this week.
We have seen what this defense looks like without Bosa in the past; the pressure numbers fall off a cliff. Plus, it's not like Bosa is the only missing piece along a now very thin front. If the 49ers can't generate pressure on Jacoby Brissett, he can move the ball on this defense.
Now, the Arizona situation at cornerback is less than ideal, but San Francisco also comes into this game pretty beat up at wide receiver, which helps a bit.
Arizona looked bad last week against Seattle (which will happen to many teams), but I'm buying them at over a touchdown against the wounded Niners.
Pick: Cardinals +8.5
