Justin Fields Draft Odds Give Him Only 12.5% Chance To 49ers’ Pick At No. 3
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields
- Justin Fields has been at the center of the biggest storyline heading into the 2021 NFL Draft: Which quarterback the 49ers will draft third overall.
- A co-favorite to be San Francisco's pick only two weeks ago, Fields odds have plummeted as Trey Lance's have risen.
- At his current odds, Fields has only a 12.5% implied probability to be the No. 3 overall pick.
Justin Fields NFL Draft Odds
The market for Justin Fields has been erratic over the last month, with even more chaos on draft day.
As recently as two weeks ago, Fields was the co-favorite to be selected No. 3 overall alongside Alabama’s Mac Jones. Fields’ odds began to plummet on the heels of news he is managing an epilepsy diagnosis and reports that the 49ers favor Jones or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance over Fields.
Odds further shifted — this time in Lance’s direction — on Thursday morning with rumors swirling that Jones is in fact not the 49ers’ top choice.
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) April 29, 2021
Fields’ current draft position over/under is 7.5 with the over at plus money (+103) and the under at -129. Seven feels egregiously high for a top QB in this year’s class, but it tracks given the way his stock has been dropping over the last two weeks.
Justin Fields’ Odds To Be Picks 1-3
The first two picks of the draft have seemingly been etched in stone for weeks now with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson heavily favored at -10000 (99.01% implied probability) to go first and second, respectively.
While a case could be made that Fields is the second-best quarterback in this year’s class, the actual probability he is picked in the top two are slim. He sits at +3300 (2.94%) odds to go first to the Jaguars and +1500 (6.25%) to go second to the Jets.
Things get more interesting at the third pick with Fields at +600 odds (14.29%). As mentioned, it wasn’t long ago he was the betting co-favorite to go third at +100, which swung all the way to +1000 at some books. It was back up to +400 odds (20%) on Thursday morning and has dropped back to +700 odds (12.5%) as of mid-day.
Odds To Draft Justin Fields
|Team||Odds||Round 1 Pick(s)|
The Patriots currently have the highest odds to select Fields at +200 (33.33%). New England picks 15th, but the team has been mentioned in numerous rumors about potentially trading up in this year’s draft — an atypical move for head coach and de facto general manager Bill Belichick.
But Belichick might be willing to step outside of his comfort zone to address this glaring roster need. The team did re-sign veteran Cam Newton, but it’s unlikely Newton — or any other signal-caller on their depth chart — represents the future at quarterback for New England.
The Panthers have the second-highest odds behind New England to select Fields at +300 (25%). Carolina — which will pick eighth this year — has made two significant quarterback transactions this offseason by trading for former Jets signal-caller Sam Darnold and sending Teddy Bridgewater to the Broncos.
The Bridgewater trade could certainly hint at the Panthers’ intention to draft a quarterback on Thursday evening, though they have also been rumored at possibly trading down in the draft to a more QB-needy team.
The Falcons and 49ers have the third-highest odds at +500 (16.67%) to draft Fields. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, 35, is technically under contract until 2023 and carries a massive $65.44 million dead cap hit in 2021. The Falcons could be headed for a massive teardown and rebuild, however, following an abysmal 2020 season and amid news that star wideout Julio Jones may be on the trading block.
Jones is the favorite to go to the 49ers at -150 (60%), with Lance close behind him at +150 (40%). It’s been rumored that San Francisco’s decision will come down to these two and that the team is trying to broker a trade that would send Jimmy Garoppolo to New England.
Next up are the Broncos and Lions at +600 (14.29%), the Washington Football Team at +800 (11.11%) and the Bears at +1000 (9.09%). The Lions presently have the best QB situation of the aforementioned four club and the highest pick of the group at No. 7 overall. The Broncos have the ninth pick, followed by Washington at 19 and Chicago at 20.