Kedon Slovis Scouting Report & 2022 NFL Draft Profile

Kedon Slovis NFL Draft Profile

Kedon Slovis NFL Draft Projections

The history of USC quarterbacks to enter the league over the past 20 years is checkered.

• Carson Palmer (2003): 1.01
• Matt Cassel (2005): 7.230
• Matt Leinart (2006): 1.10
• John David Booty (2008): 5.137
• Mark Sanchez (2009): 1.05
• Matt Barkley (2013): 4.98
• Cody Kessler (2016): 3.93
• Sam Darnold (2018): 1.03

Since former head coach Pete Carroll left USC in 2010, the school has done an especially poor job of preparing passers for the NFL.

Perhaps Slovis will be different.

What Slovis has going for him is accuracy …

… and experience: As a true freshman, he made 11 starts in place of No. 1 quarterback J.T. Daniels, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game of the season, and then he made six more starts last year in USC's pandemic-truncated schedule.

As long as all goes according to plan this year, Slovis could enter the 2022 NFL draft as an extremely rare 21-year-old, true junior with three college seasons as a starter.

As a junior, Slovis is the No. 10 returning quarterback in college football (per Pro Football Focus).

• 2022 NFL Mock Draft: Pick No. 6, Eagles
• 2022 Position Big Board: No. 3 QB
• 2022 NFL Draft Big Board: No. 5 Overall
• 2021 Devy Fantasy Rankings: No. 5 QB, No. 16 Overall

Kedon Slovis Scouting Report

Strengths

• 70.0% career completion rate.
• Reasonable athleticism for a pocket passer (4.80-second 40-yard dash as a recruit).
• Worked with Hall-of-Fame quarterback Kurt Warner in high school and is working with passing guru Tom House this offseason.
• Throws with touch and anticipation.

Weaknesses

• Horrendously net negative runner with -1.7 yards per carry (including sacks).
• Average-at-best arm strength.
• Regressed as a sophomore (9.4 adjusted yards per attempt in 2019 to 7.4 in 2020).
• Recruited by few Power Five schools despite having 3-4 stars.

Kedon Slovis Stats

Passing Production

• 2020 (6 games): 264-1,921-17-7 passing | 67.0% completion rate
• 2019 (12 games): 392-3,502-30-9 passing | 71.9% completion rate

Rushing Production

• 2020 (6 games): 23/-57/0 rushing | -2.5 yards per carry
• 2019 (12 games): 45/-57/0 rushing | -1.3 yards per carry

*Includes Sacks

Kedon Slovis & USC Betting Odds

Below are the best odds for various Kedon Slovis and USC betting markets as of May 19, 2021. Find reviews of the best online sportsbooks here.

• Kedon Slovis to Be No. 1 Pick in 2022 Draft: +1000 at PointsBet
• Kedon Slovis to Win Heisman Trophy: +2500 at DraftKings
• USC to Win National Championship: +5000 at BetMGM
• USC to Win Pac-12 Conference: +400 at DraftKings
• USC to Win Pac-12 South Division: +125 at DraftKings

Kedon Slovis & USC Market Analysis

I'm staying away from Slovis and USC in the betting market.

With his utter lack of rushing ability, Slovis seems highly unsuited to today's NFL: He bears an unfortunate resemblance to Josh Rosen as a pocket-bound prospect. Even with a strong 2021 performance, Slovis would be an unlikely pick at No. 1.

Slovis is a better bet to win the Heisman — but I'm skeptical. His sophomore-year regression suggests that he might be more of a high-floor producer than a high-ceiling achiever, and that doesn't bode well for the Heisman, which is all about outlier-ish upside.

As for USC, HC Clay Helton has underwhelmed in his five full seasons as the full-time coach. He went 10-3 in his first year as USC finished No. 3 overall in the Associated Press poll, but since then USC has fallen short of preseason expectations.

• 2017 (11-3): Preseason AP Poll – 4; Final AP Poll – 12
• 2018 (5-7): Preseason AP Poll – 15; Final AP Poll – Unranked
• 2019 (8-5): Preseason AP Poll – Unranked; Final AP Poll – Unranked
• 2020 (5-1): Preseason AP Poll – 17; Final AP Poll – 21

USC might win the South Division or the Pac-12, but I wouldn't bet on it. If I had to bet on anything, I'd bet on the national championship — because the odds are long, and if the Trojans are good they might be way better than expected — but I think high-end mediocrity is much likelier than title contention.

Matthew Freedman is 1,051-849-37 (+92.6 units) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.