Chargers-Raiders Betting Preview: Are the Chargers Being Overvalued?

Chargers-Raiders Betting Preview: Are the Chargers Being Overvalued? article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers, Derek Carr

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

  • Spread: Chargers -10
  • Over/Under: 50
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: With 82% of bets as of writing (see live data here), the Chargers are one of the most popular bets of the week. You can’t blame bettors for fading the Raiders, though, following their abysmal loss to Nick Mullens, a quarterback who had never thrown an NFL pass before.

This line moved briefly to -9.5 on Monday, but it went back to -10 on Monday night and hasn’t changed since. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games (like the 1-7 Raiders), have gone 202-159-10 (56%) against the spread when listed as underdogs of seven or more points.John Ewing

The Chargers are rolling. They’ve won five straight games for the first time since 2014, winning the turnover battle in each of the five wins.

According to our Bet Labs data, teams to win at least five consecutive games while winning the turnover battle in each are only 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) when listed as the favorite, losing bettors 7.2 units since 2003.

That includes 1-8-1 ATS since 2012, failing to cover the spread by 10.4 points per game. Evan Abrams

The Raiders have lost their past three games by more than three touchdowns on average. Teams in that spot are 44-35-1 ATS (55.7%) in their next game, profiting bettors 6.6 units. That includes 39-27-1 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog (+9.8 units).

When looking at the home and road splits in this spot, the distinction is glaring.

  • At home: 22-24-1 ATS (-3 units)
  • On road: 22-9 ATS (+11.6 units)
  • Neutral site: 0-2 ATS (-2 units)

As a reminder, the Raiders are playing at home this week. Abrams

Did you know? Jon Gruden’s Raiders are 1-1 straight-up and 2-0 ATS with a +2 point differential in two games against … Vance Joseph, the league’s worst ATS coach, and Hue Jackson, who held those honors before he was fired by the Browns.

In their other six games, the Raiders are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS with an -113 point differential. Chris Raybon

Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Gruden

Biggest mismatch: Chargers offense vs. Raiders defense

If the goal of a defense is to protect its end zone, then the Raiders are like 11 sleeping mall cops. They’re being lit up for 31.5 points per game, the second-worst in the league.

I blew it by backing them against the Mullens-led 49ers, underestimating how well any quarterback can play with a clean pocket. The Raiders’ seven sacks are dead last in the league, and as a result, so are their 8.6 net yards per pass allowed. They’re also allowing 4.8 yards per carry to opposing run games.

Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is efficient as ever. He’s one of only four quarterbacks averaging more than nine yards per pass attempt. And Melvin Gordon treats every week like he’s rostered himself on DraftKings, averaging 124.0 yards from scrimmage with 10 total touchdowns in seven games. Raybon

Which team is healthier? Raiders

The Chargers still won’t have stud defensive end Joey Bosa (foot), and fellow edge defender Darius Philon (ankle) looks questionable.

That’s still more adversity than the Raiders are expected to deal with, as Doug Martin (hip) seems to be the only player at real risk of missing action on Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Rivers has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season while orchestrating the Chargers’ 11th-ranked scoring offense.

Sadly, No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen (1 TD) hasn’t managed to find the end zone nearly as often as Tyrell Williams (5) and Mike Williams (5).

Still, Allen is positioned well against the Raiders’ bottom-two defense in Football Outsiders’ overall and pass DVOA. He’s shredded the unit for 8-90-0, 9-133-1, 5-45-0, 9-89-0, 8-63-0, 3-27-0, 3-26-1 and 6-115-1 lines in eight career games against Oakland.

He is $7,100 on DraftKings and boasts a solid +3.1 Projected Plus/MinusHartitz

Bet to watch: Raiders +10

After getting blown out by Mullens and the 49ers, only 18% of bettors are on the Raiders at +10.

NFL home underdogs getting at least a touchdown have historically covered at a 55% rate, and they have performed even better when getting fewer than 20% of bets, going 40-26-3 (61.5%) ATS.

Oh wait, I said the exact same thing last week about the Browns, and they made me look like a fool.

Back on that terrible home dog wagon, I guess. I can’t resist. Gallant


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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