Monday Night Football Preview: How to Bet Eagles vs. Seahawks

Monday Night Football Preview: How to Bet Eagles vs. Seahawks

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back and find an Eagles vs. Seahawks pick for each side on Monday Night Football.

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• Somebody stop the bleeding! The Eagles have lost two straight after starting 10-1 and have lost control of their destiny for the NFC 1-seed. Philadelphia is the NFC 2-seed right now after Dallas was blown out by Buffalo. Seattle has lost four straight and is out of the playoff picture altogether right now. Philly and Seattle are both playing with their backs against the wall, badly in need of a win.
• Good luck figuring out Seattle's injury report. The list is long and fuzzy at best. Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, Jamal Adams and Jordyn Brooks are among the many defensive names with limited or no practice who could end up missing. And then there's the big one …
• Will Geno Smith play? Smith injured his groin in practice last Thursday and was ruled out the morning of Seattle's most recent game, giving Drew Lock the start. Lock did well enough against the 49ers, but he is a huge step down from Smith. Smith has been limited in practice, and groin injuries tend to linger. The guess here is that Smith goes, with the extra day here providing a cushion, but he probably won't be at or near 100%.

Editor's Note: Jalen Hurts was downgraded to questionable on Sunday due to an illness. The analysis below was written with the assumption Hurts is active.

Philadelphia's losses the last two weeks weren't pretty, but also came against arguably the two best teams in the league, and Seattle is no San Francisco or Dallas. The Seahawks rank 24th in DVOA over the last five weeks, with both the offense and defense ranked at least that low.

Seattle has fallen much further than Philadelphia, and its defense is especially troubling and has been even worse at home this season. Seattle's offensive line could also be in trouble if Philly's pass rush has any gas left. Seattle's struggles on late downs and in the red zone also look like big red flags against an Eagles team that specializes in those areas. Philadelphia has also run well to the left side, where Seattle's run defense has been particularly porous.

This late in the season, great teams tend to bounce back after big losses. From Weeks 10 to 15, teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a 20-plus-point loss are an incredible 40-8 ATS over the last couple of decades, covering an awesome 83% of the time.

Trust the Eagles to bounce back in a big spot against an opponent that isn't healthy right now.

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Seattle should pass plenty in this game, regardless of who plays quarterback. Philadelphia's secondary has been beatable all season, and that could mean a big game for DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba — but it's hard to know which one.

Instead, let's pivot to tight end, since the Eagles are last in DVOA against opposing tight ends. Noah Fant has slowly taken hold of the lead tight end role as the season has gone on, with his highest snap rate of the year over the last month, and he's had at least 25 receiving yards in eight games this season, including each of the past three.

I like that he hit the over with Lock last week, too.

I'm not waiting around for Seattle's injury report since bad news can only push this line back above the key number. I love this specific matchup for the Eagles against a defense that simply can't tackle, and I think this is a great get-right spot for Philadelphia.

Seattle has allowed at least 28 points in three straight, and teams that do that are just 22-45-2 ATS (33%) in the following game since 2018. I trust the Eagles against Seattle's defense and I want the -3.