The New England Patriots (0-1) and Miami Dolphins (0-1) face off in an NFL Week 2 AFC East clash on Sunday, Sept. 14. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Dolphins are 2-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Dolphins -2), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Miami is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New England is +110 to pull off the upset.
This game features two winless AFC East squads — the Dolphins were waxed by the Colts in Week 1 while the Patriots fell to the Raiders in Mike Vrabel's debut as head coach. Drake Maye also had a spotty game, eating four sacks in an inconsistent effort.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Dolphins predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 14.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction
- Patriots vs Dolphins pick: Patriots +2 (-110)
My Dolphins vs. Patriots best bet is on New England to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at Fanatics. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Dolphins Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Patriots vs Dolphins NFL Week 2 Preview
I'm going with the Patriots +2 against Miami in Week 2.
For the vast majority of the offseason, I believed the Dolphins had lost their mojo. But as the season began to approach, I started to talk myself out of that, thinking we might be overplaying the whole injury situation, and this team is usually pretty good when they are healthy.
Plus, it seemed like they had a favorable draw to open the season going up against Daniel Jones in his first start with the Colts.
But to the surprise of many, the game was basically over before it even started. Miami got absolutely destroyed on both sides of the ball in a 33-8 loss in Indianapolis
The Dolphins looked like a total mess. Nothing was working on offense. Tyreek Hill was fuming mad on the sidelines before halftime. The defense couldn't stop a nosebleed; I don't trust them to fix this mess anytime soon.
Sometimes teams come out in Week 2 and it looks like a night-and-day difference, and that very well may be the case for the Dolphins. But even if they play much better, it still might not be good enough to win football games. Miami was truly horrible in Week 1.
On the flip side, I'm much more confident in the Patriots' ability to improve upon their performance in Mike Vrabel's second game at the helm in New England. The Patriots played well enough to win last week's game against the Raiders and they let it slip away.
Make no mistake about it, the Patriots are still a mediocre team.
But so are the Dolphins. And the Dolphins are dealing with more injuries to their offensive line and secondary, which are their two weakest units.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dolphins are in a tough spot injury-wise, and there are a bunch of trends pointing toward New England here.
Week 2 underdogs coming off a loss, now going up against a favorite that was an underdog last game have hit at a 64% ATS clip over the past two decades. Underdogs of six points or less in Week 2 coming off a straight up loss are 73-42-3 ATS (63%) over that same timeframe.
There's also reason to be optimistic about the Patriots moving forward.
Mike Vrabel should only get better as the coach of this team. The Pats only utilized rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson on 35% of snaps last week.
We heard the rumblings from camp about Kayshon Boutte possibly being a breakout candidate this year — he had six catches for 103 yards in Week 1. Maybe there's something there.
Over the course of his career, whenever Vrabel's team has been listed as an underdog of 14 points or less, his teams are 29-22-2 ATS in those games, nearly a 10% return on your investment if you just bet it blindly every time.
I could see the Dolphins unravelling very quickly — give me the points with New England.
Pick: Patriots +2 (-110)
Spread
My Dolphins vs. Patriots betting prediction is on New England to cover the spread at +2.
Moneyline
I'm not targeting the spread in this matchup as opposed to the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the total in this contest.
