Saints vs Colts Odds, Prediction | NFL Week 8

Here's everything you need to know about the latest Saints vs. Colts odds with an expert pick and prediction.

Both teams are coming off tough home losses and will look to bounce back here. Can Gardner Minshew and the Colts' offense continue to cook, or will the Saints' extra rest benefit them in this bounce-back spot?

Let's preview this matchup before getting to a Saints-Colts prediction for Week 8.

The Saints are coming off a pretty bad loss to the Jaguars on Thursday Night football that saw them win the turnover battle and the time of possession battle and still lose by a full touchdown as home favorites.

Derek Carr was awful for most of the game and finished with a poor 39% success rate and a -7.4 CPOE (completion percentage over expected). Carr mostly checked the ball down all game to Alvin Kamara, finishing with an average depth of target of just 6.3 yards.

Carr has cleared 50 passing attempts in two straight games but it has mostly been due to the Saints trailing big throughout the game. The Saints aren’t calling optimal plays early in the game, opting instead to spam inefficient runs to Kamara and Jamaal Williams. Kamara has a rushing success rate of just 37.7% on the year.

The Colts' defensive line ranks 11th in adjusted line yards, while the Saints' offensive line ranks 28th, according to FTNFantasy.com. However the Colts have dropped to 22nd in explosive run rate allowed, 18th in rush DVOA and 20th in rush success rate allowed.

A lot of their weakness against the run can be attributed to the suspension of defensive tackle Grover Stewart, who can just completely shut down interior runs and has been one of the NFL’s best run defenders over the past few seasons.

With all that being said, we should expect the Saints to run the ball a bit more effectively here than they did against an underrated Jacksonville front seven. We could also see the Saints utilize Tayson Hill in the run game more as he had a success rate above 75% against the Jags.

Still, Carr will have to figure out how to hit on passes down the field if he wants to earn this road win. The Colts will be without their second-highest grader corner JuJu Brents as well as their third-highest-graded corner in Dallis Flowers, so they will be a bit thin in the secondary.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

The Colts' offense managed to put up 38 points against the Browns despite ultimately taking the loss.

It’s reasonable to question how sustainable that offensive performance was as their success rate was just 41% overall. A lot of their offensive success came on a few big plays where guys like Josh Downs or Michael Pittman Jr. took advantage of some blown coverages from the Browns.

Still, 38 points no matter how it comes is impressive and this Saints defense isn’t on the same level as the Browns. We also can expect Colts coach Shane Steichen to maximize Gardner Minshew’s efficiency by calling early down passes, utilizing play-action and pre-snap motion.

The same cannot be said for this Saints offense as they seem to be in love with inefficient early-down runs and rank near the bottom of the league in pre-snap motion and play-action rate.

We can also expect Steichen to maximize win-probability on crucial fourth-down decisions, whereas we can absolutely not count on Dennis Allen to make optimal decisions.

I think this side is lined correctly but I have a slight lean toward the over in this spot.

I have a bit more faith in this Colts offense after watching their performance against the Browns last week and I expect the Saints to have a bit more success running the ball here. However, I’m likely going to pass on betting this game as I see no value on either side or total.

Lean: Over 43.5