The New York Jets (0-3) and Miami Dolphins (0-3) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for in 7:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Dolphins are favored by -2.5 on the spread over the Jets (Dolphins -2.5) with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. The Dolphins are -150 moneyline favorites to win outright while Jets are +125 underdogs.
How should bettors approach this Monday Night Football game featuring two winless AFC East teams? Find my Jets vs Dolphins prediction below.
Jets vs Dolphins Prediction
- Jets vs Dolphins pick: Under 45.5 (to 44)
My Jets vs Dolphins best bet is Under 45.5, with the best price currently available at DraftKings at Under 45.5 (-115). But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jets vs Dolphins Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Jets vs Dolphins Monday Night Football Preview
This Jets–Dolphins Monday Night Football game is the top under play in our Week 4 Luck Rankings with both teams scoring well above expectation on the season.
Jets games are averaging 54.0 total points while Dolphins games are averaging 51.0. However, we should expect some downward regression in this spot due to several factors.
Firstly, both offenses have spent the majority of their time trailing by huge deficits, which obviously can't be the case in both ways here. According to Stathead, the Dolphins have started offensive drives down nine points on average (third-worst), while the Jets have started drives down by 8.2 points on average (fourth-worst).
Secondly, both defenses are adept at forcing throws underneath. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins are allowing the lowest average depth of target in the league (5.3), and the Jets are tied for fifth-lowest (6.4).
Thirdly, both teams have seen several fluky fourth-quarter scoring plays.
Last week, the Jets and Bucs combined for 27 fourth-quarter points, which included the Jets scoring on a 50-yard Will McDonald blocked field goal return TD with 1:49 remaining.
In Week 2, the Dolphins followed up a Malik Washington 74-yard punt return TD by allowing the Patriots to score on a 90-yard kickoff return TD on the very next play.
Additionally, the Jets should see regression in the missed-tackle department after whiffing on a whopping 39 tackles through three weeks.
Jets vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Beyond the regression factor, the weather could also be an issue.
At the time of this writing, there is a 28% chance of thunderstorms in Miami, with wind speeds pushing double digits.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 4 Divisional Unders are 34-17 (66.7%) since 2015 for a 28.6% ROI.
Pick: Under 45.5 (to 44)
Spread
I'm staying away from the spread in this contest.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
As I outlined above, the game total under 44.5 (to 44) is my best bet for this game.
