NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Player Props: Sunday Picks for Week 4

As long as Chargers' WRs Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are listed at +200 or better, we take them every time.

This duo has been electric with QB Justin Herbert through three games, with Allen scoring in all three games, while QJ has three touchdowns, but only scored in two of three.

Of the two, my heart will also always go with Johnston, but I think both can score in a matchup against a soft Giants' secondary that plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and ranks 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass.

On the Giants' side, this will be rookie QB Jackson Dart’s first start in the NFL. So, while I do think he’s an interesting prospect, let’s take WR Wan’Dale Robinson to score a touchdown in this one.

Robinson is the short-yardage slot WR for the Giants, and he will likely be the dump-off option for Dart as he navigates his first game.

Robinson is the only Giant other than Malik Nabers to see an end zone target, and has historically seen his target rate skyrocket when playing zone coverage, which the Chargers play at a top-five rate.

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These teams have faced off against one another three times over the last two seasons, with the Bucs winning two of those games.

When betting TD scorers in this game, you don’t want to live and die by those three box scores, but you do have to decide if you think the Eagles will throw or completely lean on the run.

Through three games, the Bucs' run defense has been stellar with only two rushing TDs allowed and rank top-five on both rushing yards allowed and rush yards per attempt.

I’m not saying the Eagles can’t run the ball here, but I do think they will increase the pass volume again in Week 4.

If that’s the case, I’m riding with TE Dallas Goedert at +400.

He’s historically done well in this matchup with an increased target rate, and played over 90% of snaps last week (and scored a TD) after missing Week 2 with an injury.

If you want to take AJ Brown or Devonta Smith, those are both great options but if there’s a chance the Eagles pass-frequency continues to be low, then I’ll take the player with the highest odds. In this case, it’s Goedert.

With WR1 Mike Evans out for the Bucs, this could be a tough week to pinpoint which direction to go with Bucs' TD Scorers.

WR Chris Godwin may be back this week, and even if he is, he’s likely going to play a limited role.

WR Emeka Egbuka has been awesome, but he is also coming off a week of injury. Egbuka would be the logical choice given his workload and ability, but I kind of want to go gross here: I’m going to side with TE Cade Otton in this spot.

Otton has been a bit of a forgotten man this year, but in the three games where Evans missed time last season, Otton finally saw his target rate increase and he scored twice.

With the Eagles' corners likely matching up with Egbuka or WR Sterling Shepard, this could be a matchup where Otton gets to shine.

I’m not sure if Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel can fix this defense in one season.

New England’s pass defense has been getting beat repeatedly in the end zone by wide receivers with four of the five touchdowns allowed to outside pass-catchers.

That should likely mean this could be a big game for rookie WR Tet McMillan, who has the most targets of any Panthers' receiver while posing as a mismatch for the Pats' secondary.

The issue I have with taking him is trusting QB Bryce Young to be competent (not easy), and McMillan’s TD odds at only +190. That number should still  be closer to +225 given the game total (42.5) and the implied team total for Carolina.

Instead, I say we take a stab on Panthers' WR3 David Moore at +850.

Moore played 97% of snaps last week, and with WR2 Xavier Legette out, he played almost as many snaps as McMillan, and will likely see another favorable snap-share since Legette is out again in Week 4.

Part of the reason why he didn’t see much volume in Week 3 is because the Panthers were ahead comfortably against the Falcons, and Carolina didn’t need to pass.

The Patriots' offense is tricky for TD scorer bets because there isn’t a consistent threat to score anywhere in the offense.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson might get cut by the time this is published because of his fumbling issues, and TE Hunter Henry is coming off a two-touchdown game, so his odds to score are nuked down to +200.

Much like David Moore, let’s take Henry’s counterpart in TE Austin Hooper and bank on him to score.

Hooper is playing over 60% of snaps for New England, and the Panthers play a lot of zone. They play Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the NFL.

The Panthers also rank bottom-three in targets, catches, and yards against the TE-position this season after allowing the most TDs to the position last season.

Also, Hooper’s route-rate nearly triples when Patriots have played zone this season, and he had three touchdowns last year.

So, let’s have some fun and take a long shot.

I mentioned last week that Commanders' QB Marcus Mariota may end up calling his own number in the red zone, and predictably, he scored.

After ripping through the Raiders, Mariota is continuing his “Revenge” tour playing against another former team in the Falcons.

The Falcons play zone at an above-average rate with a huge mix of Cover 3 and Cover 4 defenses. That would typically apply to WR1 Terry McLaurin, but he’s likely out this week, which leaves a huge hole on the outside for the Commanders' offense.

I think it comes down to whether you trust Mariota to run it in himself inside the 10-yard line or to find TE Zach Ertz (+240).

Last year, with Jayden Daniels at QB, Ertz feasted in this matchup with two touchdowns. So, I’m leaning toward Ertz, but don’t be shocked if Mariota vultures us in Week 4.

After getting shutout by the Panthers, the Falcons offense needs to re-evaluate EVERYTHING.

QB Michael Penix looked completely lost last week, and even got benched for Kirk Cousins.

Now, I do expect a bounce-back from the Falcons, and I think the player that can win on this defense is WR Darnell Mooney (+290).

Normally, I’d look to WR1 Drake London in this spot because he absolutely crushed man defense last year, but it’s Mooney that has seen the most targets against man defense this season, and has two end zone targets in two games.

Both of these teams play man coverage at top-5 rate and can pressure the opposing quarterback. So, I think we should take the wide receiver angle.

When picking a TD scorer against the Browns, if you take a running back, you’d better hope it’s worth the price.

Cleveland’s run defense has been top-notch thus far with only one rushing TD allowed through three games.

The Browns rely on getting pressure with the defensive line while playing a ton of Cover 1 and letting their cornerbacks be aggressive.

But they are playing the Lions, at home, and that aggression could get you killed when playing someone like WR Jameson Williams (+220), who can beat defenses over the top.

The Browns rank bottom-seven in defensive DVOA against the deep ball. So, I expect at least a few deep throws headed Jamo’s way.

That being said, don’t be surprised if QB Jared Goff just spams Amon-Ra St. Brown in the red zone.

For the Browns, I considered WR Jerry Jeudy in this spot because he’s playing the most snaps, and he leads the team in target share along with aDOT.

But his counterpart, Cedric Tillman, is playing nearly the same amount of snaps and running the same amount as Jeudy, but his price to score is +320 compared to Jeudy’s at +250.

Tillman has two touchdowns through three games, and if the Browns fall behind early (which is quite likely), then expect Joe Flacco and the Browns to keep slinging it down the field.

I’m starting to have serious concerns about the Texans' offense.

The Texans have failed to score more than 20 points in a game after three weeks, and outside of WR Nico Collins or RB Nick Chubb, everyone else in Houston is unproven.

I’m likely passing on the Texans for the time being, but if we plan to bet on any player, it’s gotta be RB Nick Chubb at +155 or RB Woody Marks at +375.

Of the two, I’d likely side with Marks because, in limited role, he’s looked way more explosive than Chubb and has a higher targets-per-route-run. So, he could be involved in many different game scripts.

The Titans are bottom-five in rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt and rushing TDs allowed. So, if the Texans offense plans to get on track, it has to be this week.

On the flip side, if you thought picking a Texans' player was tough, good luck finding a decent Titan to exploit the Texans' defense with.

I don’t project QB Cam Ward having much success throwing the ball, and most of the TD value is on third-string TEs who may see one target the entire game (s/o to Gunnar Helm).

I’d rather just take Ward to score a TD at +850.

His scramble rate has increased with each game, and he had a carry inside the 10-yard line last week.

Rookie QBs' scramble rates tend to rise when facing a defensive front that can get pressure, and RB Tony Pollard hasn’t shown enough to justify a +140 price tag.

I’m not sure how much longer the Saints will keep Spencer Rattler as their quarterback, but he’s at least attempting to throw the ball downfield.

The issue is his decision-making on third down, as the Saints have only converted 35% of their third-down opportunities with him under center, which would be bottom-five in the NFL.

Over the first three weeks, I’ve gone with TE Juwan Johnson or WR Rashid Shaheed, and while both have scored, I think it’s WR1 Chris Olave’s turn to get in the end zone this week.

Olave leads the NFL in total targets (37) and four of the five receiving TDs allowed by Bills are to outside WRs.

Another reason why I like Olave in this spot is because either the Saints jump on the Bills quick and he catches a TD from poor coverage. Or, the Saints are getting blown out and they are in pass mode for the rest of the game.

There’s a couple of ways for you to play Bills' TD scorers, but it kind of depends on what kind of game script you’re expecting for this matchup.

With the Bills listed as 15.5-point favorites, this could obviously be a huge blowout by halftime, and if that’s the case, let’s point to RB2 Ray Davis at +400.

As my colleague Sean Koerner pointed out about Davis, he tends to see a huge increase in rushing volume when the Bills are up by eight or more points.

Davis saw nine carries in Week 2 against the Jets (30-10 win), compared to only two carries combined against the Ravens and Dolphins, which were one-score games.

With the Bills having a propensity to blow teams out by two-plus scores (nine games last season, one this season), I like Davis to score a touchdown here.

The other angle is Bills' TE Dalton Kincaid because he might have the best combo of matchup and TD odds at +240.

The Saints play a lot of zone and run Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the league.

Well, Kincaid leads the Bills in targets per route run against zone, and both of his TDs this season came against zone coverage.

There’s a lot of angles we could take with the Colts this week for touchdown scorers.

The Rams' defense has been decent, but they’ve still shown they can be vulnerable against the pass after giving up three passing touchdowns to the Eagles last week.

This means WR1 Michael Pittman and TE Tyler Warren are in play if the Rams are going to play zone at an above-average rate; especially if they show a lot more Cover 4.

Of the two, I’d go with Warren in this spot, as he leads the team in targets-per-route-run and yards-per-route-run against zone defenses this season.

I think the Rams are going to do everything in their power to make RB Jonathan Taylor a spectator and make QB Daniel Jones have to throw, and if that’s the case, my money is on Warren to score his first TD.

For the Rams, I'm betting on Davante Adams to score a touchdown.

Set it and forget it. If I need to explain to you why Davante is a stud, just look at the highlight from last week when he beat the Eagles' secondary on a long touchdown.

Given his TD pedigree, and the fact that he’s being peppered with end zone targets (five targets inside 10-yard line), this should probably be minus-odds, even with WR Puka Nacua getting the higher target share.

Both of these teams are a bit of a mess offensively and have been relying on their defense to win games.

The Niners have played zone at a top-10 rate through three games and have seemed to adopt a good use of Cover 3, Cover 4, and even a decent rate of Cover 6.

For the Jaguars, this should apply to WR Parker Washington or TE Brenton Strange, as both have seen their targets-per-route-run increase against zone, but Strange’s production drops off a cliff when facing Cover 3 and Cover 4.

Now, if you want to take Brian Thomas Jr. here at +185, I wouldn’t blame you because last season he was amazing against those coverages, but his connection with QB Trevor Lawrence seems to be off and he looks to be dealing with a wrist injury.

Washington, on the other hand, seems to be receiving the trust of the Jags' coaching staff with 16 targets in just the last two games.

The 49ers injury report may as well be a CVS receipt.

Injuries across the board for the Niners with WR Jauan Jennings likely out and WR Rickey Pearsall seeing only limited practice.

At this point, you’re kind of aiming in the dark when trying to determine which player will be the injury merchant and vulture a TD.

The only logical one that comes to mind is RB2 Brian Robinson Jr. at +600, and the only reason why is because I have doubts about RB Christian McCaffrey swallowing ALL the carries inside the red zone.

CMC has been the one true weapon for the Niners, but the workload through three games might not be sustainable, especially if he breaks a long run and falls short of the end zone.

If the B-Rob angle isn’t enough for you, I’d just pass on the 49ers for the time being.

I know these picks will likely be “boring” for this game because the TD odds have been steamed quite a bit on the top players. This means guys like Travis Kelce, Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson aren’t likely making my card this week.

The demise of Mark Andrews seems to be greatly exaggerated. He rebounded for two touchdowns and led the team in targets last week after being a non-factor in the first two games.

The Chiefs have played a ton of Cover 2 and two-high safeties through three weeks (both at second-highest rate), completely removing wide receivers from the picture after getting torched in Week 1 against the Chargers.

This will also be the Chiefs' first test against a quality TE after having to match up with Will Dissly, Grant Calcaterra and Theo Johnson through three games.

With three end zone targets, Andrews can run off touchdowns in bunches. So, let’s ride with him while he’s hot.

The Chiefs might be the most-frustrating team to bet on for touchdowns.

It’s a painful offense to watch and the TD odds still get priced like this is peak KC from 2021.

The one constant has been the presence of RB Kareem Hunt (+220).

The veteran running back continues to be the workhorse goal line back for the Chiefs and has clearly shown a better capability than RB Isiah Pacheco.

Hunt is the only Chief to get a carry inside the five-yard line this season, and after scoring a TD last week, I think it's his job to lose.

I’d also point out that the Chiefs may want to take a page out of the Lions' playbook and use their run-game when they can, because Baltimore looked completely out of sorts trying to stop the Lions' rushing attack.

I wanted to approach this game with a contrarian approach and find a player deep down the oddsboard, as the top of the TD odds are priced like this is a Lions-Ravens game.

I’m still very high on Bears' WR Rome Odunze at +155, but the more I dig into the matchup, I’d rather take QB Caleb Williams at longer odds to score another TD.

Williams' scramble rate tends to see a huge uptick when pressured from the blitz, and through three games, the Raiders have blitzed at a top-10 rate.

Another reason why I like Williams is because he’s a bit of an ad-libber, and if the Bears get inside the red-zone, he has shown the willingness to use his legs and find the open man or scramble for yards.

Williams scored a touchdown in Week 1 (should’ve had two), and he’s fifth amongst all quarterbacks in carries inside the 20-yard line.

After scoring three touchdowns last week, you’d think the price on WR Tre Tucker would plummet.

However, even as a WR2, he’s still likely fourth in the pecking order from an anytime touchdown point of view because of the involvement of RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.

Both have looked unimpressive through three games, but it’s Tucker that has been the game-breaker.

He could also find paydirt by way of an end zone carry, as he has three carries this season too.

At this point, it’s either Tucker or nobody on the Raiders because Jeanty, Bowers, and even WR Jakobi Meyers are all below +200 to score.