Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 7 on Sunday, October 19.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these Week 7 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 7.
NFL Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Raiders vs Chiefs |
| Dolphins vs Browns |
| Patriots vs Titans |
| Saints vs Bears |
| Eagles vs Vikings |
| Panthers vs Jets |
| Colts vs Chargers |
| Giants vs Broncos |
| Commanders vs Cowboys |
| Packers vs Cardinals |
Raiders vs. Chiefs
The arrival of WR Rashee Rice for the Chiefs should float all boats for Kansas City's offense.
Rice was an integral part of keeping defenses off balance and showed the capability to score against any type of coverage.
That being said, he’s being priced like he never had an injury, or will have rust after serving a six-game suspension at +130. So, why don’t we just take the WR who has been a trust-worthy option this season (see what i did there?) and take Xavier Worthy at +180.
Out of all the Chiefs' WR options they have now, Worthy is the only one I’m confident in that won’t see a reduced role with Rice returning.
Worthy caught his first TD of the season last week, and while he only had four targets, the game was mostly in hand by the end of the third quarter, as the Chiefs were just running out the clock.
At +180, for an explosive weapon that gets red zone carries and rushes, Worthy is our go-to here.
If we can just bank on QB Geno Smith not to throw interceptions, we might feel great about betting some Raiders TDs this week!
That’s me in my “optimistic” voice because Smith has been brutal on that front.
That being said, TE Brock Bowers is likely out again this week, and WR Jakobi Meyers could be on the trade block. So, I say we just keep it simple and take TE Michael Mayer again at +300.
Mayer caught a TD last week after returning from a concussion, and it’s a great price for a TE1 in a matchup where I expect the Raiders to be trailing and in a passing game script.
Verdict: Xavier Worthy +180 | Michael Mayer +400
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Dolphins vs. Browns
Browns' TE David Njoku is banged up with a knee injury and could be on the trade block. So, let’s take his rookie teammate, Harold Fannin to score another TD.
Fannin leads the Browns in catches and receiving yards, and the Dolphins have allowed four TDs to TE and rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the position.
Fannin took over the No. 1 TE role after Njoku left last week's game. So, either you ride with Fannin or take a long shot like TE3 Blake Whiteheart at +2500, as he played a season high 27% of snaps last week and caught a TD last season against the Raiders.
I’m a bit worried about QB Tua Tagovailoa in this matchup because I’m not sure he’s going to be able to repeat the success he’s had when playing in Miami compared to a wet and windy atmosphere in Cleveland on Sunday.
That’s why I think the deep pass is likely not going to be a heavily-used option for the Dolphins, but short quick throws could be the recipe.
I do think TE Darren Waller technically has the “best” matchup since he’s been running the most routes for the Dolphins since he joined the team, but his TD odds are so steamed now at +240 that’s its hard to take him at this stage, especially when I’m not confident that Tua will throw for more than one touchdown.
If he does, it probably won't be to an obvious choice like De’Von Achane or Jaylen Waddle, but I think the best option is to split a unit between WR Nick-Westbrook Ikhine and WR Malik Washington since they’re both over +500, both have low aDOTs and both have seen snap increases with WR Tyreek Hill out.
Verdict: Harold Fannin +300 | Malik Washington +650 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +1300
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Patriots vs. Titans
This is an ultimate “narrative” game.
Of course, you have Patriots' head coach Mike Vrabel looking to stick it to his old team, or you have the Titans fresh off firing their head coach and potentially playing more inspired football.
Frankly, I don’t think either matters because the Patriots are just the better team.
The Titans may see a slight bump on offense, but even that would still be a bottom-10 output. So, if you’re banking on a huge resurgence, make sure the TD odds reflect it.
For the Titans, the only player I’m considering is RB2 Tyjae Spears.
I don’t think the new coaching regime is going to miraculously change the output of what the Titans can do throwing the ball in one week.
So, I think if anyone has success, it would be Spears, who had four catches last week and ended up playing more snaps than RB1 Tony Pollard.
Spears could also be utilized a bit more if the Titans have to go to a pass-heavy offense in a trailing script.
I know he hasn’t scored in a couple weeks, but I keep getting sucked back in for a Drake Maye TD.
He’s second on the Patriots in red-zone carries and is tied with two red-zone TDs with RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
Maye is also fourth amongst all quarterbacks this season with 21 total scrambles.
Given the Titans have allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL (11) with only one to a QB, I think we can take advantage here with Maye, given the QB scoring numbers should continue to rise.
Verdict: Tyjae Spears +350 | Drake Maye +310
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Saints vs. Bears
I’ve been a bit all over the place when it comes to Saints' TD scorers this season, as I’ve invested plenty in the likes of WR Chris Olave or TE Juwan Johnson. But this week, I’m back on the Taysom Hill TD train.
Last season, he was a monster near the goal line with six rushing TDs, but he also added some receiving chops, as he scored two receiving TDs as a pass-catching TE.
Some weeks, when it’s a prime matchup, we might see Taysom’s TD odds near +175, but if he’s back healthy, I fully expect him to get some goal line touches against a Bears' defense that ranks 22nd in defensive DVOA against the run.
For the Bears, I think it’s time to invest heavily into WR Luther Burden at +450. He saw a season-high four targets against the Commanders last week, and could see a larger role now if WR DJ Moore is limited in this game.
Even if Moore plays, I still like Burden in this spot.
The Saints tend to play more zone coverage (top-10 rate), and Burden has seen his target rate go up against zone, highlighted by a flea-flicker TD against the Cowboys' zone defense a few weeks ago.
Verdict: Taysom Hill +275 | Luther Burden +450
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Eagles vs. Vikings
Everyone will be on Vikings' WR Justin Jefferson in this game, and it makes sense.
Jefferson is an elite WR1, and the Eagles will likely be without their top cornerback in Quinyon Mitchell.
Well, it looks like oddsmakers already know this information because JJettas’ ATD odds are already steamed down to +120, but the wide receiver I want is Jordan Addison at +260.
It’s kind of impressive to have the game he had in Week 5 (five catches and a touchdown) after being benched for the entire first quarter for disciplinary reasons.
Given his recent issues, I expect Addison to be fully up to speed now with the Vikings coming off the bye and have that in the rearview because the man has scored in 15 of 34 career games, which would average out to +126 if you averaged it out.
Now, do I think his odds should be less than +200? No. But at +260, the value is there for one of the best young WRs in the NFL.
The Vikings' defense has been a tough test for any offense this season, but they’ve been lowkey getting gashed by running backs.
This is why I think the Eagles lean heavily on the ground game and we see RB Saquon Barkley have 15+ carries along with QB Jalen Hurts trying to find scramble angles when the Vikings blitz him repeatedly.
At +400, I don’t love the value or Saquon 2+ TDs because of the potential of Hurts stealing a score, nor do I love WR AJ Brown at +170, given his recent swoon of not getting enough targets.
I think if you bet on an Eagle this week, just take starting pass-catcher with the longest odds, and that is WR Jahan Dotson at +1000.
Dotson gets almost no targets. So, he’s a bit of a “cardio king,” but he’s still the Eagles' WR3 and running routes on over 70% of dropbacks.
It’s gross, but given where the weakness of the Vikings' defense lies, and with the lack of passing in the Eagles' offense, you either have to take a long shot or pass altogether.
Verdict: Jordan Addison +260 | Jahan Dotson +1000
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Panthers vs. Jets
The Panthers are getting one of their top playmakers back in Jalen Coker this week, and I love him to score at +380.
The second-year receiver only had two TDs last season, but was impactful as a slot option for the Panthers, and will likely take over the role from WR Hunter Renfrow.
Carolina has been raving about Coker the whole time he’s been on IR, talking about how good he looks in practice, and he could be a decent option to score a TD if the Jets and CB Sauce Gardner focus on stopping WR Tet McMillan.
I also wanted to get ahead of this because if he scores this week, we might not get above +300 again.
Jets' TE Mason Taylor was already a popular option for TD props coming into this game, as he’s seen a massive jump in usage each week and has been their de facto TE1.
The Broncos completely shut him down last week, but now we’re facing the Panthers, who have already given up four TDs to the position and are on the road against a team desperate for a win.
Remember, it’s Justin Fields at QB, and WR1 Garrett Wilson is out.
I don’t expect a lot of TDs on the Jets' side, but if they come, it’s likely from short and deliberate passes from Fields.
This is why I would sprinkle as well on Andrew Beck, who’s a FB and TE for the Jets.
Beck scored a TD in Week 5 on a quick pass to the end zone, and has historically had a nose for scoring, like in 2023 when he finished as the most-profitable ATD scorer of the season at +120 units because he caught two touchdowns, rushed for another, and scored a TD on a blocked kick.
Verdict: Jalen Coker +470 | Mason Taylor +260 | Sprinkle on Andrew Beck +3000
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Colts vs. Chargers
I won’t overcomplicate this. Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor is having a massive season, and now he gets a prime matchup against a Chargers' defense that has given up 2+ TDs to opposing RBs in back-to-back games.
My initial lean was to WR Josh Downs, but he’s missed practice this week due to a concussion, and may not play. So, I figure in this game with such a high total, why not keep banking on the stud RB that has had two 3-TD games already this season.
For the Chargers, I’m expecting WR Quentin Johnston back, which should open things up more for WR Keenan Allen (+210).
Allen leads the team with seven end zone targets this season, and also leads the team in targets-per-route-run.
I fully expect QB Justin Herbert to continue trying to find him when they get to scoring range.
I also expect QJ and Ladd McConkey to get their share of the targets, but with Allen having the longest odds, I’ll just go back to the vet.
Verdict: Jonathan Taylor 2+ TDs +350 | Keenan Allen +210
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Giants vs. Broncos
It’s another “man coverage” bowl, with both defenses ranking as the top-two teams in deploying that type of defense, which means both quarterbacks are in play to rush for a TD.
Giants' QB Jaxson Dart (+375) has already rushed for two touchdowns in three starts, while Bo Nix has one on the season and is ninth amongst all QBs in scrambling.
The funny part about Dart is, he’s tied with Nix in total scrambles but in two less starts.
That being said, of the two, I’d still rather go with Nix because his passing has been a bit erratic this season, and the Giants have been lowkey tougher against the pass recently with only three receiving TDs allowed over their last three games.
Plus, the Giants' run defense is far worse, currently ranked last in defensive DVOA against the run.
So, unless you want to count on which tight end scores this week or which running back gets the hot hand, I’d rather keep it simple and take the dual-threat QB in a plus-matchup.
I know he didn’t score last week against the Eagles, but Giants' TE Theo Johnson still looked impressive as a pass-catcher in this offense.
Johnson has run the second-most routes of any Giant behind Wan’Dale Robinson, and he has eight red zone targets, with four of those coming inside the 10-yard line.
To put that in perspective, that is the same amount of targets for Cowboys' TE Jake Ferguson or Patriots' TE Hunter Henry, and you’d be hard-pressed to find those two above +300, even in a tough matchup against the Broncos.
I still think the TD market hasn't quite caught up yet to how involved Johnson is in this offense, and since he’s got a great price, let’s invest in him to continue the upswing.
Verdict: Bo Nix +300 | Theo Johnson +500
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
The highest total of the week, so we'll just play chalk in this one. I'm taking Cowboys' WR George Pickens (+150) and Commanders' QB Jayden Daniels (+150).
I get that WR CeeDee Lamb is coming back, but Pickens has just been on another level this year with Dak Prescott.
He already has 13 end zone targets, and with this being a potential shootout, these odds should be closer to +115.
Pickens has scored six receiving TDs, and has scored in five straight games. Don’t overthink it.
As for Daniels, I tend to steer clear of the “he’s due” narratives, but because of the scrambling, there’s so much upside for a rushing TD.
Daniels ranks third in total scrambles despite missing two games, and the Cowboys' run defense (or defense in general) likely won’t pose much of a threat to Daniels ability to scramble out of the pocket.
His scramble rate tends to go up when he’s not blitzed and sees pressure, which applies to the Cowboys, who are bottom-10 in blitz rate, but second in pressure-rate-per-dropback.
Daniels' knee injury seems to be a non-issue now as well, since he's carried the ball 18 times over the last two games.
Verdict: George Pickens +150 | Jayden Daniels +170
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Packers vs. Cardinals
The health issues for the Cardinals are all over the place, and it's trending more that QB Jacoby Brissett will play again this week.
Frankly, I think the Cardinals' passing game has more value in the TD department with Brissett under center than they do with Kyler Murray, just because of the size and ability to push the ball downfield.
I want to take WR Marvin Harrison in this spot at +200 because I believe this is a matchup where he can win downfield, and he got off to a hot start with Brissett in last week's game before having to leave with a concussion.
If Harrison isn’t able to play, I’m going to go chalky and take TE Trey McBride.
McBride saw 11 targets last week and scored a TD, and will likely see double-digit targets again in this spot, with or without Marv.
The Packers have a wealth of options on offense to throw at defenses, and while they’ll likely lean on RB Josh Jacobs, I still expect QB Jordan Love to still throw some guys open and get some touchdowns.
The Cardinals have shown, regardless of matchup, that they don’t play in blowouts. So, the Packers should still see a high frequency of pass plays in the second half.
My initial look was to take rookie WR Matthew Golden, as he seems to be one play away from truly breaking out, but his odds reflect that.
So, instead I'm going back to TE Tucker Kraft at +180.
The big man scored last week, and he’s running the most routes of any Packer that isn't named Romeo Doubs.
It’s also a decent matchup, as the Cardinals rank 25th in defensive DVOA against TEs this season, and have given up the second-most targets, the second-most catches, and third-most yards to the position.
Verdict: Marvin Harrison Jr. +235 (Pivot to Trey McBride +170 if MHJ is ruled out) | Tucker Kraft +170
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