Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 8 on Sunday, October 26.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 8 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 8.
NFL Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Dolphins vs Falcons |
| Jets vs Bengals |
| Browns vs Patriots |
| Giants vs Eagles |
| Bills vs Panthers |
| Bears vs Ravens |
| 49ers vs Texans |
| Buccaneers vs Saints |
| Cowboys vs Broncos |
| Titans vs Colts |
Dolphins vs. Falcons
Going to go back to WR Darnell Mooney at +310.
He played 83% of snaps after returning to the lineup and could be in line to score against this horrendous Dolphins defense, which is in complete disarray and have given up two passing TDs in five of seven games this season.
Mooney could take the top off the Fins defense, as they are bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the deep ball, and the Falcons just cut WR Ray-Ray McLoud, which should give Mooney even more opportunities to get his first TD of the season.
Dolphins WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is running the third-most routes on the team. And, QB Tua Tagovailoa may finally need to target him now with TE Darren Waller out.
He’s also seen a boost with Tyreek Hill out, as he’s played 70% of snaps and running routes at a 65% rate in games without Hill.
The Dolphins defense is a mess. So, they could be in a trailing game script for a big portion of this contest, and NWI was still out there playing and running routes late against Cleveland last week in a blowout.
He saw a season-high in targets in Week 7. At +850, that’s a decent price to find out if he’s in line for a bigger role in Week 8.
Verdict: Darnell Mooney +310 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +1000
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Jets vs. Bengals
Both of these defenses have been awful this season, especially defending the pass, with both squads giving up a ton of TDs to TEs this season.
The Bengals just came off a game where they allowed four TDs to TEs, while the Jets have given up five TDs to TEs over the last four games.
Since it’s “National Tight End Week,” we may as well lean into the narrative and take one on each side.
For the Bengals, Noah Fant stands out as an option because he scored last week against the Steelers, and he has run the most routes of any Bengals TE this year, while leading them in end zone targets.
With TE Mike Gesicki out, he’s seen his role increase even more, and with Flacco at QB, the upside for him to score is much higher than it was with QB Jake Browning.
The Jets currently rank 31st in defensive DVOA against the pass, with six TDs allowed to TEs this season.
So, let’s keep rolling with Fant in this spot.
I’m less confident on the Jets' side because QB Tyrod Taylor is dealing with a knee injury and QB Justin Fields can’t complete a pass.
WR1 Garrett Wilson is also out, which means the Bengals defense can key in on someone like TE Mason Taylor.
So, I say we just keep sprinkling on TE Andrew Beck until he scores again.
He doesn’t really play a lot, but when he does, he gets targets because he has a higher targets-per-route-run than Mason Taylor or Jeremy Ruckert.
Back in 2023, as a member of the Texans, Beck caught two touchdowns, rushed for another, and scored a TD on a blocked kick.
Verdict: Noah Fant +275 | Sprinkle on Andrew Beck +2200
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Browns vs. Patriots
I bet on Drake Maye to score a TD last week, and while he didn’t come through for us, it was clear that his scrambling ability is a weapon for him going forward.
Maye had two carries inside the 10-yard line against the Titans and finished with nine carries, while now ranking second in the NFL in total scrambles.
This week, the Patriots are facing the Browns, and this could be another matchup for success when it comes to Maye scrambling.
The Browns play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate and haven’t really faced a dual-threat QB this season, except for Week 2 when they got blown out by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and didn’t really have to run.
As long as Maye’s scramble rate continues at this pace, we have to keep betting him to score TDs.
On the Browns' side, I’m just going to keep taking TE Harold Fannin Jr. if sportsbooks keep pricing him at +300 or better.
He leads the Browns in catches and receiving yards, and the Patriots' pass defense is likely the part we target since I expect the Browns to be in a trailing game script, likely needing to throw more.
The other option is to take QB Dillon Gabriel at +1000 or better since he’s likely going to have some confusion in the defensive looks the Patriots throw at him, and as a rookie, this is where the scramble rates start to rise.
Verdict: Drake Maye +350 | Harold Fannin +320
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Giants vs. Eagles
We’ve been waiting all season for the Eagles passing offense to explode, and they finally gave us a taste in Week 7 against the Vikings.
My initial lean for the Eagles was WR AJ Brown, but he could be out this week with a hamstring injury.
Even if he does play, it would be risky to bet his TD. So instead, just pivot to WR DeVonta Smith at +210.
In two games without Brown last season, Smith saw 20 targets, scored a TD and saw an end zone target in each game.
Now, we could end up seeing the Eagles just tush-pushing the entire game, but if the Giants can keep it close and limit those explosive run plays, I like Smith to get another touchdown in Week 8.
Sometimes, we get lucky with TD props, and last week, we bet on Giants TE Theo Johnson to find the end zone.
Well, he found it, but it was off a tipped pass, which led to the score.
Even with the good luck, Johnson was still a receiving fixture for this offense with seven targets and played over 88% of snaps against the Broncos.
I know he didn’t score in Week 6 against the Eagles, but he has eight end zone targets this season, and has scored four TDs over his last four games.
If you want to take a long shot, you could dabble with RB2 Tyrone Tracey at +650, but I like Theo the most for the Giants this week.
Verdict: DeVonta Smith +210 | Theo Johnson +350
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Bills vs. Panthers
Coming into the season, if you had told me the Panthers would have a three-game winning streak at any point of the season, I’d ask if you need to have your urine checked.
Carolina’s offense has been lowkey impressive in certain weeks and have scored 27+ points in each of its three home games.
Now, I’m not ready to say they can repeat that feat against the Bills, but the first player I had my eye on was WR1 Teteroia McMillan at +210.
For this game, QB Bryce Young will be out. So, that means QB Andy Dalton will get the start, and frankly, I don’t project as much of a drop-off offensively compared to other backup QBs.
In five appearances last season, Dalton had seven passing TDs.
One of the key takeaways from those games was Dalton typically targeted his WRs, with six of those seven TDs going to wideouts.
That’s why I also want to take WR2 Xavier Legette at +450 because he has the same amount of red zone and end zone targets as McMillan, but we’re getting over twice the odds.
With the Bills being heavy favorites and coming off a loss, I fully expect the Panthers to be trailing a lot in this game with heavy emphasis on the pass since the Bills have already given up six TDs to WRs this season.
The Panthers defense plays zone at top-five rate and have been pretty decent at defending the run, ranking third in defensive DVOA against opposing runners, but they drop all the way to 24th in DVOA against the pass.
Once you look at the Bills and see which pass-catcher thrives the most against zone and Cover 3, it’s pretty obvious we go with TE Dalton Kincaid at +230.
He missed Buffalo's last game with an oblique injury, but should be good to go now after the bye week.
He leads the Bills in target share and receiving TDs against those types of defenses, and the Panthers rank last in defensive DVOA against the TE-position.
So, let’s go back to Kincaid to score.
Verdict: Dalton Kincaid +230 | Tet McMillan +210 | Xavier Legette +450
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Bears vs. Ravens
We thought the Ravens offense might finally resemble some competence this week with the return of QB Lamar Jackson, but it looks like he’s still a week away from returning.
This means the quarterback will likely be Tyler “Snoop” Huntley, which completely caps the upside of this offense.
The only Raven I’d consider this week is TE Mark Andrews.
He’s been pretty quiet this season outside of a 2-TD game agsainst the Lions, and that’s kind of why we should go back to him, because he’s done well this year against man defenses and should see more man coverage looks against the Bears.
Andrews has seen his target-share go up when facing man defenses this season, and at +200, that’s who I’d grab for a desperate team looking for it’s second win of the season.
The Bears offense should have some positive matchups to exploit against the Ravens.
Baltimore’s defense has struggled against both the pass and the run this year.
I expect the Bears have to lean more on the pass and target their prized rookie in TE Colston Loveland.
Chicago has taken a lot of crap from draftniks because it passed on Tyler Warren and he’s thriving in Indianapolis, but Loveland has the goods to be a high-end pass-catcher in this offense.
He just hasn’t been utilized as much with the presence of Cole Kmet and emergence of WR Rome Odunze.
Well, Kmet left last game with a back injury, and Loveland saw a huge spike in snaps and routes run following Kmet's exit.
NFL rookies tend to start slow, but this feels like a week where Loveland could get his first TD, especially since the Ravens rank 28th in defensive DVOA against TEs this season.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +200 | Colston Loveland +250
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49ers vs. Texans
There's a lot of ways to approach the 49ers offense for TD props, but sometimes, you have to go chalk and that’s leaning into RB Christian McCaffrey to keep pounding the rock.
The amount of touches for CMC this season doesn’t feel sustainable, but he’s fourth in total targets, while also ranking first in overall rush attempts.
The 49ers have no issue giving him the ball over and over again, and I don’t think the TD market has caught up to this fact.
CMC is second in the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line with seven, while also seeing 80% of all red zone carries for the 49ers, which is second in the NFL to Jordan Mason.
After scoring twice last week against the Falcons (who were No. 1 in defensive DVOA vs. the run entering Week 7), I think we'll see his usage increase even more against a Texans run defense that has allowed seven rushing TDs compared to just four passing TDs, and just gave up two rushing TDs to Zach Charbonnet last week.
I was considering TE Dalton Schultz here for the Texans since it’s National TE Week, and he saw 10 targets in Week 7 against the Seahawks.
However, with the injury to WR Nico Collins, his TD odds have plummeted down to +170, which is no bueno, considering he hasn’t even scored a TD yet this season.
Instead, I think we go to WR2 Xavier Hutchinson at +310.
He ranks second on the team in total routes run, already has a 2-TD game under his belt, and is second on the team in end zone targets.
With Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel all priced about the same as Hutch, I’d rather just bet on the guy we know will play over 75% of snaps and should be able to see some end zone targets against a 49ers defense that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass.
Verdict: Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs +450 | Xavier Hutchinson +310
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Buccaneers vs. Saints
It’s hard to pinpoint where the Saints are on the development timetable on offense, but the one constant for targets that I can’t ignore is WR Chris Olave at +200.
He is second in the NFL with 70 targets and leads the team by a mile with eight end zone targets with the next closest having only two.
He’s one of the best young WRs in the game, and while I don’t love QB Spencer Rattler, he’s targeted Olave in the end zone in every game.
The Bucs defense plays both zone and man at around a league-average rate, and Olave leads the team in targets-per-route-run against both styles of defense.
The Buccaneers are very difficult to pick for TD scorers in a given week with all the injuries and odds steaming that comes when lots of players are logging DNP practices.
When I’m in a spot like this and it’s National Tight End week, I like to just take the backup TE on teams when the TE1 is heavily steamed.
So, for this week, we’re going with Payne Durham at +750.
He scored twice last season, once against the Saints and has seen his snap-rate increase in each of the last three games.
Now, I will mention that he is primarily a blocking TE.
So, he hasn’t been running many routes, but with Cade Otton at +190, I’d rather take a long shot considering the Saints have given up four TDs to TEs and rank 27th in defensive DVOA against the position.
Verdict: Chris Olave +200 | Payne Durham +1300
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Cowboys vs. Broncos
Cowboys WR George Pickens is in a bit of a weird spot.
When WR CeeDee Lamb was out, he was arguably the most explosive WR in the NFL, with five TDs in four games and averaged 8.1 targets per game.
With Lamb in the lineup, his target rate has dropped significantly. Especially against man coverages, which the Broncos play at the highest rate in the NFL.
Still, I think the price for his TD odds have swung too far in a matchup where the Cowboys should still be able to put up points. So, let’s ride with Pickens this week at anything over +200.
He’s still running the most routes and playing the most snaps of any Cowboys WR, with or without Lamb in the lineup, and even though he may see a dose of CB Patrick Surtain, Pickens is one of the few WRs that can generate splash plays on his own against any form of defense.
For the Broncos, you can almost take your pick of the litter and make a quality case for a TD scorer.
Facing the Cowboys defense, there’s holes everywhere to exploit. So, my choice this week is WR2 Troy Franklin at +240.
He leads the Broncos in red-zone targets, and facing the Cowboys zone defense that has allowed the most TDs to WRs in the NFL (12), I’m just going to ride the hot hand after he scored last week against the Giants.
QB Dak Prescott also intrigues me as a long shot this week at +850.
Over the last two games, the Broncos were utilizing a spy defender over the middle to ensure QB Justin Fields and QB Jaxson Dart couldn’t scramble for long runs.
Well, the Broncos might not be able to do that this week because that defender will likely be needed for extra pass protection.
This means Prescott, who scored a rushing TD against the Packers, could be in line to call his own number if the Broncos’ man coverage is more worried about stopping the pass than the QB sneak.
Verdict: George Pickens +210 | Troy Franklin +240 | Sprinkle on Dak Prescott +850
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Titans vs. Colts
This could be an absolute thumping for the Titans if they’re not careful against the Colts.
Indianapolis is on a historic run of efficiency and rarely punting, which means the margin for error for Tennessee is quite slim.
Since I’m not a believer of the Titans, I fully expect the Colts to run all over them like they did in Week 2, and while I would tend to want to invest in RB Jonathan Taylor in this spot, I actually think quarterback Daniel Jones is the player to target in this game.
The upside for rushing against the Titans has been an angle most bettors have played all season, as they’ve allowed the most rushing TDs this season, while ranking 28th in defensive DVOA against the run.
Obviously, Taylor will get the majority of carries near the goal line, but because of his presence, the ability for Danny Dimes to call his own number is quite appealing.
For what it’s worth, Jones scored a TD when they faced the Titans in Week 2, and Titans' DT Jeffrey Simmons is likely out this week too.
The Titans offense is tricky to pinpoint, but I think we just need to go back to WR Chimere Dike here.
He scored last week and is playing the full-time slot role now with WR Tyler Lockett being cut.
He leads the team in red-zone targets with five, and had another TD called back in Week 5 against the Cardinals.
With the Colts allowing nine TDs to WRs so far this season, another option is RB2 Tyjae Spears at +350 because he’s the pass-catching back in this offense, and if the Titans are in another trailing game script, he will get the snaps over RB1 Tony Pollard.
Verdict: Daniel Jones +260 | Tyjae Spears +350 | Chimere Dike +475
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