Rovell: Everyone’s Betting the Underdog on MNF
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Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield
- We're tracking all of the Week 5 NFL betting action in one place, including the biggest wagers to hit sportsbooks, what games oddsmakers will be paying the closest attention to, and more.
Monday Update
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- 7:20 p.m. ET: Ah, nothing quite like a trendy underdog. The Browns are 4.5-point dogs at the 49ers on Monday Night Football, and bettors can't get enough of them. DraftKings told me that 79% of the money wagered on the spread for MNF has come in on the Browns — and 89% of the moneyline bets are also on Cleveland. At PointsBet, one bettor wagered $500 per point on Browns +4 via the sportsbook's Points Betting product. So for every point Cleveland covers the spread by — or for every point it fails to cover the spread by — this bettor will make or lose $500. The bet has a 20x stop loss, meaning the maximum he can win or lose is $10,000.
- 11:45 a.m. ET: DraftKings, which launched its mobile product on Thursday in Indiana, had a special odds boost for its customers in the Hoosier state. The book offered the Colts moneyline at +1000 vs. the Chiefs, instead of the usual +460, an unusually high boost, as DK tries to gain a similar foothold in Indiana that it currently has in New Jersey. The limit for the bet was $10. The Colts winning, while undoubtedly huge for the book on the whole (the Chiefs were popular favorites), burned DraftKings with this particular boost. It lost $300,000 on the promotion, with 38% of its Indiana customers taking advantage.
Sunday Update
- 11:35 p.m. ET: It's over. The Colts, who were 10.5-point underdogs vs. the Chiefs, just pulled off the biggest upset of the season. And you can bet Indy's outright victory had sportsbook operators very happy on Sunday night. Any moneyline parlay that was still alive — and there were plenty with New England and Philly rolling as big favorites — just got wiped out. Perhaps most notable is the $180,000 New Jersey bettor who just needed a K.C. victory to complete a two-team parlay and net nearly $150K. It wasn't meant to be. That's a wrap from here … We're already on to MNF.
- 8:10 p.m. ET: Earlier today, we reported on a $180,000 parlay placed at PointsBet with the Chiefs/Ravens moneylines. This bettor escaped the Ravens-Steelers game with an overtime victory, and now it all comes down to Colts-Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. If K.C. wins outright, the bet will net $147,540.
- 4:15 p.m. ET: Right before the 1 p.m. games kicked, we reported that DraftKings and PointsBet both took massive bets on the Bears to win outright over the Raiders. With the Raiders' upset victory, both books will net a substantial sum. The wager at DK was for $210,000 on the moneyline, while the Bears' loss blew up at $285K parlay at PointBet that included the Bears and Chiefs. Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told The Action Network that the Raiders' win would more than make up for the Patriots covering.
- 12:40 p.m. ET:DraftKings just took a $210,000 bet on the Bears moneyline (-263) vs. the Raiders. Would net a profit of $79,800. This backs up our earlier nugget from Jeff Sherman over at the Westgate, who told me recreational bettors are lining up to back the Bears today.
- 12:15 p.m. ET: PointsBet, like most books, will have massive parlay liabilities hinging on the Chiefs' game on Sunday Night Football. In fact, two of the bigger parlay wagers the N.J. book has taken this week involve the Chiefs. One bettor plopped down $285,000 on a Chiefs/Bears moneyline parlay (would net $196,551). A different bettor put $180,000 on a Chiefs/Ravens moneyline parlay (would net $147,540).
- 11:53 a.m. ET: A few days ago, a bettor at the SuperBook threw down $5,000 on the Patriots to go 16-0 at 8-1 odds. That same bettor just doubled down on his wager: $4,500 at +750 odds, according to John Murray to the SuperBook. The $9,500 in total bets would profit $73,750 if the Patriots run the table.
- 11:45 a.m. ET: CG Technology's Tony DiTomasso says sharps at his shop are on Falcons over Texans, Bucs over Saints and 49ers over Browns. He also added that he can't get anyone to bet against the Patriots or Chiefs. CG will need the Redskins and Colts to cover badly.
- 11:40 a.m. ET: The most lopsided bets at DraftKings … 93% of the money is on the Patriots (-16), and 87% of the money is on the Bears (-6).
- 10:20 a.m. ET: The SuperBook's biggest wagers at the moment are on opposite sides of the same game, according to Jeff Sherman. One customer bet $22,000 to win $20,000 that the Falcons will cover +5 against the Texans. Another bettor wagered $22,000 on the Texans to win outright, which would profit $10,000 (-220 moneyline odds).
- 10:15 a.m. ET: A quick rundown from Sherman on who the sharps are betting on Sunday: Steelers over Ravens, Cardinals over Bengals, Jets over Eagles, Bucs over Saints, Titans over Bills, Broncos over Chargers.
- 10:10 a.m. ET: A quick rundown from Sherman on who the general public is lining up to betting on Sunday: Ravens over Steelers, Bears over Raiders, Vikings over Giants, Patriots over Redskins, Chiefs over Colts.
- 9:25 a.m. ET: A three-team moneyline parlay just came into FanDuel’s sportsbook at Meadowlands in New Jersey. It includes the Ravens (-176), Cowboys (-176) and Chargers (-250). If all three teams win outright, this $40,000 bet would net $97,714.
- 9:15 a.m. ET: Two big bets earlier this week into CG Technology, as two sharp bettors hit the 49ers, who are playing the Browns on Monday Night Football. One got it at -3.5 for $20,000, another at -4 for the same amount.
- 8:45 a.m. ET: The most automatic against the spread pick is off this week — the Miami Dolphins. They are the only NFL team that is 0-4 against the spread, failing to cover by 18.8 points on average, nearly 10 points worse than the Cincinnati Bengals, who are next up.
- 8:35 a.m. ET: The public still cannot get enough of the Patriots. The Patriots-Redskins line has moved from 15.5 up to as high as 16.5 in some spots. Our data shows that 87% of the money is still on Belichick’s boys.
Saturday Update
Surprise, surprise. The New England Patriots are the public’s favorite play this weekend.
The Patriots are not only the best team in the NFL by a wide margin over the last 10 years (they’ve won 33 games more than the next best team — the Pittsburgh Steelers), they’ve also covered more games (60.2%) than any other.
But this year seems to be the ultimate test. Sunday, the Patriots are a 15-point favorite over the Washington Redskins. It’s the third time this season that New England has been favored by more than two touchdowns. That makes them only the third team since 1993 to be favored by two touchdowns for multiple games in the first five weeks (2000 St. Louis Rams, 2007 Patriots).
They covered -18 easily against the Dolphins and were a pick-six away from covering as 21-point favorites against the Jets. Failing to cover last week by a point against the Bills, they are now 2-2 against the spread this season.
Plus, there’s now a personnel change to consider. The Redskins say Colt McCoy, who has been in the system for six years, is starting over rookie Dwyane Haskins, who threw three interceptions last week.
But confidence is strong by the public that the Patriots will cover. At FanDuel, 97% of the money is on the Patriots. At the Superbook, it’s at 90%.
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