NFL Interception Prop Picks: Bet Patrick Mahomes (Week 4)
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures — especially when it's a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
For the 2023 NFL season, I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props for each quarterback, and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 17-12 for +8.9U so far.
This is off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) after throwing a pick in five of the six games he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on to throw an interception in Week 4.
I know I’m betting against the king, but even the king is fallible in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes will throw an interception in front of Taylor Swift on Sunday night and I’m here to cash in on it.
I don’t want to bore you with Taylor Swift puns but we know “All Too Well” about Mahomes and his offensive exploits. But what doesn’t get talked about is his growing propensity to throw interceptions over the last two seasons.
After only totaling 24 interceptions in his first four seasons (45 games; 53% INT rate), his interception rate has skyrocketed. Over the last two seasons, he’s thrown 27 interceptions in 38 regular-season games (71% INT rate).
Does that mean we just blindly bet him each week? No, because if you did that last season, you would've only made 0.55U in profit. That’s not worth it.
What we do is find a matchup where we have a solid defense with a great secondary and hammer the INT prop. This is where the Jets come in.
For all their shortcomings on offense, I’m not ready to write off the Jets defense. They haven’t forced an interception in the last two games, but they still have an above-average pass rush and have yet to allow a rushing TD this season.
Mahomes will need to throw to put up points for the Chiefs, and if his passing attempts go up, the probability of an INT also does.
In a primetime game, with Taylor Swift in the house and likely their season on the line, I expect maximum effort from the Jets defense.
Editor's note: Deshaun Watson is out for the Browns.
We bet on Watson last week against the Titans and he wasn't even close to throwing a pick. But now Watson is facing a real defense in the Ravens and these interception odds are out of control — thus, so we have to bet his interception prop again.
Last week was the first time since joining the Browns that Watson looked like a competent quarterback. That’s because the leaky Titans defense makes nearly every quarterback look like Peyton Manning. Watson has played nine games with Cleveland and has thrown an interception in six of them.
As effective as Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt can be, it’s a big drop-off from Nick Chubb in the run game — not to mention to the loss of right tackle Jack Conklin. Watson has to become more of a passer in this game against a defense that ranks near the top of the NFL in defensive DVOA.
The Ravens didn’t force an interception against Gardner Minshew and Watson had a clean game vs. Tennessee. Had those games gone to script, and they both had turnovers, we’d be seeing close to -110 odds for a Watson INT in this spot.
This is a complete overreaction. Entering the Titans game, Watson had a bad-ball thrown rate of 17.5% since returning from suspension.
Don’t overthink it.
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