NFL Live Betting Week 12: How We’re Live Betting Sunday Night Football

Even with no teams on bye, we have "only" 11 games on Sunday, thanks to a Thanksgiving triple-header as well as the game on Black Friday.

Still, that's plenty to choose from for NFL live betting during both main Sunday windows. Plus, we have an interesting Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Ravens — let's have a day.

NFL Live Betting for Week 12 Sunday Night Football

Ravens at Chargers: Overs, Especially With a Ravens Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 43.5 (-114, FanDuel)

We've got a five point dip in the total, a Ravens lead, and a stalled Chargers drive just short of the red zone. That's pretty much everything we were looking for before betting the over, which we'll take at 43.5 on FanDuel.

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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

This is a tricky game for live betting, as there's not a clear advantage for either team's offense, nor is there a clear pace scenario that would lead this game to speed up or slow down.

Baltimore is one of the NFL's truly elite teams, and they rank top-10 in DVOA in all four phases of the game (run/pass defense and offense). The Chargers have a strong passing offense — and that's about it.

Both teams play fairly aggressively, with this one projecting to be fast paced with either team in control. A close game is still likely to be quick, though not as much as if one team falls behind. That's why we want to be on the over in general, as well as how efficient both offenses are (or can be).

By targeting scenarios where the Ravens are in control, though, we get a slight boost. Baltimore has the top rushing offense in the league by DVOA, and as mentioned above the Chargers passing attack is their best unit. The Ravens taking the lead means we get more of both, as well as a fast-paced contest.

More importantly though is the movement to the pregame line of 48.5. We're obviously hoping to catch a better number thanks to a slow start in this one. The dream scenario would be some fluky occurrences like drives stalled in the red zone or missed field goals, but pretty much any scenario where the total drops considerably (barring an injury to Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert) would be enough.

Our NFL Live Bets in Week 12 So Far

Panthers at Titans: Overs With a Titans Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 33.5 (-110, DraftKings)

We aren't quite at "Titans control the game" territory, technically, but they're getting the ball back with a 7-3 lead. Carolina has shown signs of life on offense, and Derrick Henry already has a touchdown. With the live total dropping three points to 33.5 we're going to take the over now, with the best line -110 at DraftKings.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

Two of the most unbalanced defenses in the league meet in this one. The Titans are one of the heaviest "pass funnel" defenses in the NFL, ranking fourth in DVOA against the run but 28th against the pass. On the other side of the field, the Panthers are miserable against the run, ranking dead last, while roughly league average at defending the pass.

Which lines up nicely with both teams' offensive strengths. While he's having a down year so far, the most dangerous offensive player for Tennessee is still Derrick Henry. We're hitting the point of the season where he tends to take over, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the 29-year-old has one more Dehember to remember left in his legs.

For the Panthers, they've shown some signs of life in the passing attack, with rookie quarterback Bryce Young adjusting to the NFL. His improvement from awful to merely bad might be enough in this matchup.

On top of all that, this is the only scenario that projects to play faster than expected. While it's not by much (a combined 0.21 seconds per play), any other situation is likely to play extremely slow, which is baked into the pregame total of 36.5, so while it's only a hair faster than average, it's considerably faster than how this game is priced.

On the other hand, if the Titans fail to control this one, we're moderately interested in taking the under. We'll probably need the total to rise a bit before jumping on that scenario, ideally with the Panthers putting up some early scores. In that case, both offenses would be biased towards less efficient approaches, while the game would also play slower.

Finally, keep an eye open for middle opportunities if the total jumps early, followed by the Titans taking over later. We'd need a very specific scenario to play out, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Browns at Broncos: Any Excuse For Unders — LIVE BET MADE, Under 40.5 (-125, DraftKings)

With Denver picking up two (somewhat) early touchdowns, the total is back just above 40 in Denver vs Cleveland. We said we'd be looking to take the under if the total got to 40, which it has. While we'd prefer a Browns lead, this still feels like a strong bet with the Cleveland offense unable to move the ball effectively with DTR under center. DraftKings has the best line at -125.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

This game features the league's worst overall defense (Denver) as slight favorites over the league's best overall defense in Cleveland. Of course, that stat is a bit misleading — Cleveland lost their two most important offensive players for the season in Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb, and they now struggle to do anything on offense.

It's also hard to project the Broncos for much success, given the strength of the Browns defense. This game comes in with a pathetic 37 pregame total, and it's hard to see even that many point scored.

Of course, the point of live betting is trying to find either a better number or a gameflow that further helps that scenario. Ideally we'd get some early scoring in this one that drives the total up around 40, which would make this a near auto-bet.

In the likelier scenario where that doesn't happen, a Browns lead serves the under better than any other scenario. They've played at the league's slowest pace when leading by eight or more this season — a logical approach when you don't expect your defense to allow the opponent back in the game. Close games also project to play slow, and a Denver lead a bit faster than average.

That's due to the inverse approach from the Broncos — no lead is safe with their terrible defense, so they need to stay aggressive offensively even from the front. A Broncos lead and an extreme dip to the pregame line might push us to the over here, but ideally that's not how this one goes.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.