NFL Luck Rankings Week 17: Steelers Back to Top, Big NFC South Luck Matchup
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Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 17.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 10-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.
However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 114-65-6 (63.2%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 17.
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NFL Week 17 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.55% | |
| 2 | 14.43% | |
| 3 | 14.04% | |
| 4 | 13.4% | |
| 5 | 11.6% | |
| 6 | 11.45% | |
| 7 | 11.32% | |
| 8 | 7.04% | |
| 9 | 5.44% | |
| 10 | 4.78% | |
| 11 | 1.54% | |
| 12 | 0.92% | |
| 13 | -0.23% | |
| 14 | -1.44% | |
| 15 | -1.77% | |
| 16 | -1.92% | |
| 17 | -2.1% | |
| 18 | -2.52% | |
| 19 | -2.94% | |
| 20 | -3.17% | |
| 21 | -3.94% | |
| 22 | -4.03% | |
| 23 | -4.07% | |
| 24 | -6.37% | |
| 25 | -7.31% | |
| 26 | -7.5% | |
| 27 | -7.68% | |
| 28 | -9.72% | |
| 29 | -10.1% | |
| 30 | -12.35% | |
| 31 | -14.61% | |
| 32 | -15.31% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
They're back.
The Steelers reclaim the top spot after beating last week's top-ranked team, the Bengals, 34-11 in a game that saw the Steelers score two touchdowns of 66 yards or more and win the turnover battle 3-0. That included an interception of Jake Browning in the end zone. The Steelers also had a goal-line stand, stopping the Bengals on second, third, and fourth and goal from the 1-yard line.
Those were just the most notable moments of a game that could have been much closer, as the Steelers averaged 6.8 yards per play to the Bengals' 6.0, while only out-gaining Cincinnati by 29 yards. That's why our Expected Score metric had this at a 22-18 win for the Steelers.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs' 30-12 win over Jacksonville, while impressive, was more like a 27-22 win by Expected Score. That win elevates Tampa Bay to sole possession of first in the NFC South at 8-7, despite what should be a 6-9 record by Expected Score.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Bad luck continued for the second week in a row for the Eagles, whose 33-25 win over the Giants was closer than expected.
The underlying play-by-play data suggested this was more like a 34-11 win for Philadelphia, which is why its Luck% dropped from 16.6% going into the game to just 14.0% after, despite the win.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Atlanta Falcons
Despite the Falcons' 29-10 win over Indianapolis, Atlanta didn't even move up a spot in the Luck Rankings. There are two main reasons for that.
First, the teams immediately ahead of them (Buffalo and New England) also won. Second, the Falcons' win was pretty much as expected, so they weren't all that lucky. The Expected Score of 30-12 was well enough in line with the actual score. Atlanta's Luck% rose from only -12.7% to -12.4% heading into Week 17.
31. New Orleans Saints
The Saints suffered a 30-22 loss to the Rams, which was actually lucky considering the Expected Score was 32-14 in favor of Los Angeles. That's why the Saints move off the bottom line and up one spot ahead of their big Week 17 game against NFC South rivals Tampa Bay.
By virtue of Tampa Bay ranking second, and New Orleans 31st with the Saints the unlucky team on the road, we have a Week 17 Luck Matchup that hits some major signals for the Saints.
32. Carolina Panthers
Carolina played well in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay but wasn't all that unlucky given the Expected Score of 26-24.
That said, the neutral luck was worse than the Saints' good luck, which makes Carolina the unluckiest team in the NFL heading into Week 17.
Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Plenty of sportsbooks will be available at launch. Stay up to date with the latest news on FanDuel Sportsbook North Carolina.
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