Updated MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Plummets Following First Loss

Oct 17, 2018 4:30 PM EDT
  • Following his loss to the Patriots, Patrick Mahomes fell from +333 to +700 to win the NFL MVP, more than a 10% drop in implied probability.
  • Aaron Rodgers made a huge jump from +2000 to +700 following a classic Rodgers-esque comeback vs. the 49ers.
  • The Rams' two stars went in opposite directions, as Todd Gurley's big game propelled his odds from +900 to +600 while Jared Goff's mediocre performance caused his odds to drop from +400 to +600.

If you thought Patrick Mahomes was a lock to win MVP after his first few games, well, sorry! His odds have been heading in the wrong direction over the past few weeks, and there are now four players ahead of him on the odds leaderboard. What’s his problem? Can’t score more than 40 points in New England? What a hack…

Here are the updated odds from Bovada:

Risers

Aaron Rodgers: +2000 to +700 (+7.7% Implied probability)

You don’t leave Aaron Rodgers with time on the clock to make a comeback. You just don’t. The 49ers learned that the hard way.

Rodgers wound up with over 400 yards for the second straight game and got the Packers a crucial, though expected, win vs. San Francisco. He’s thrown just one pick to go with 12 touchdowns passes this year and is capable of anything down the stretch. Hopefully some of you folks took him when he fell to +2000 last week.

Tom Brady: +1000 to +600 (+5.2% IP)

Over the course of the season, Brady’s odds haven’t really made any drastic jumps in either direction. This past week, however, he outdueled Mahomes in the best game of the season, which is surely deserving of a jump up the leaderboard.

My only concern with betting on Brady would be that he’s performed worse in the second half of the season over the past few years compared to the first half. He ranks decently among the stat leaderboards, but would probably need to play better down the stretch if he wants to catch up to some of the other quarterbacks.

Todd Gurley: +900 to +600 (+4.3% IP)

The Rams couldn’t cover in Denver, but they got the win and it was all thanks to the Gurley show. Gurley ran for more than 200 yards and found the end zone two more times, bringing his league leading mark up to 11.

He also took over the league lead in rushing, surpassing Ezekiel Elliott and becoming the only running back to average more than 100 yards per game on the year.

Two-thousand-plus all purpose yards, 25-plus touchdowns and a 16-0 record?!? Perhaps outlandish goals, but that’s technically what he and the Rams are projected to achieve.


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Fallers

Patrick Mahomes: +333 to +700 (-10.6% IP)

Mahomes led the Chiefs on a valiant comeback attempt in New England, ultimately falling short by a few points, but still getting the cover — which Kansas City has done every game this season.

He still leads the league in touchdown passes and is fifth in passer rating at 112.2. This seems like a bit of an overreaction to me. If anything, his odds should have fallen more after the Jaguars game in which he had no touchdowns and two picks.

Jared Goff: +400 to +600 (-5.7% IP)

The Rams’ win on Sunday was the Gurley show. Jared Goff, on the other hand, had his worst game of the season, completing just half his passes, throwing for just 201 yards and no touchdowns.

Goff’s ranks among the major quarterback stats are all mostly in the top 10. If Gurley keeps stealing his thunder, however, he’ll have a tough time winning MVP regardless of his team’s great record.

Drew Brees: +350 to +400 (-2.2% IP)

Poor kiddo. With Rodgers, Brady and Gurley all eating up so much of the implied probability, Brees’ odds had to take a bit of a hit. He’ll have a tough test this weekend going up against Baltimore’s defense.

Credit:

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
48.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
49
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
52
-1.5
OAK
ARI
41
-4
40.5
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-8.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44.5
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63.5
-3.5