NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers Leapfrogs Patrick Mahomes As Favorite Following Week 16
Getty Images. Pictured: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
NFL MVP Odds
Oddsmakers know NFL MVP voters were watching Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football and made a big change with one week left in the season.
Just hours after Patrick Mahomes struggled against the Falcons, Rodgers responded with a complete performance in snowy conditions, throwing as many touchdowns as incomplete passes (four).
Now, Rodgers is the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP, putting someone besides Mahomes on top of the board for the first time since Week 10.
Rodgers is -200 at DraftKings as of Monday afternoon. Mahomes is +175.
That a 10-win Titans team never really had a chance speaks to the control Rodgers had of the Packers’ offense on Sunday night, picking the Titans’ defense apart in virtually every way. It was almost the opposite of Mahomes, who never looked comfortable against a four-win Falcons team. He threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns and was fortunate to have just one interception on the day.
We’ve been tracking the MVP race all season, and as quickly as it appeared Mahomes was running away with the award, his lead has disappeared.
Mahomes was as high as -500 to win MVP at DraftKings just three weeks ago and -400 entering Week 16. He hasn’t been the same since.
Even with 393 passing yards against the Dolphins in Week 14, he turned the ball over three times. He completed only 55.3% of his passes in Week 15 against the Saints with 254 yards (5.4 yards per completion). He added another turnover on Sunday, meaning four of his six interceptions have come over the last six weeks.
Meanwhile, Rodgers is finishing the season with a flurry.
Sunday night’s interception in the snow was his first since Nov. 22 against the Colts. He leads the league in touchdown passes, including 11 in four December games. His 83.9 mark in ESPN’s Total QBR is the best in the league. He was +500 to win the award entering December. That number got to +175 before dropping once again to +400 entering Week 16.
Mahomes still leads the league with 4,740 passing yards and is second in touchdowns (38) and QBR (82.7).
With the AFC’s first-round bye already locked in, Mahomes and the Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 17 at home against the Chargers, so there’s risk that he either doesn’t play or won’t play the full game.
The Packers face the Bears with playoff implications for both teams: The Packers have to win to clinch a first-round bye. They could also clinch with a Seahawks loss, but with both teams kicking off at the same time, the Packers won’t have the benefit of knowing that result.
If the Bears win, they’re in. Find our updated playoff picture here.
The 2020 MVP award would be Rodgers’ third — he won in 2011 and 2014. Mahomes won it in 2018.