NFL Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bills-Bucs Spread, Saints-Jets Over/Under Are Our Expert’s Biggest Betting Edges
Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Bills QB Josh Allen
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 490-381-9 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
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I locked in the under for this matchup at 43.5 earlier in the week once the Saints hinted that Taysom Hill was going to remain the team’s starter, despite playing through an injured middle finger on his throwing hand.
I’m expecting them to have a very run-heavy game plan and lean on their defense to get a win over the Jets. Their defense should have no trouble slowing down Zach Wilson, who will be without his top two wide receivers in Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, who have been placed on injured reserve.
I’m projecting this closer to 40.5 and would bet it down to 42.
I like buying low on the Bills after their 10-14 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night where extreme winds allowed the Pats to win despite only attempting three passes.
The Bucs defense is stout against the run, but the Bills lead the league in early-down pass frequency in neutral game situations. They are more than willing to lean on Josh Allen and attack Tampa’s defense through the air. My “Expected Wins” model has the Bills graded closer to a 9-3 team, meaning they are playing much better than their 7-5 record would indicate. A big part of that would be due to their 0-4 record in one-score games this season. As always, we should typically expect teams to be around .500 in that stat, so significantly above/below teams are often over/underrated.
I am aware of how good Tom Brady and the Bucs are, but this matchup is much closer than the market is treating it. I have this projected as Bucs -2.5, so the fact we are getting +3.5 here is too good to pass up. The most likely outcome of this game is Bucs winning by three, and we would win with that result getting +3.5.