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NFL Player Props: Expert Betting Rashid Shaheed Pick for Saints vs Buccaneers

NFL Player Props: Expert Betting Rashid Shaheed Pick for Saints vs Buccaneers article feature image
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Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Rashid Shaheed.

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks.


Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception

Prop Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception Over 9.5 Yards
Matchup Saints vs. Buccaneers
Day, Time Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best Book bet365

Shaheed is the Saints‘ kick and punt returner, and he’s explosive with the ball in his hands.

It took until Week 6 for New Orleans to get him involved in the offense. Since then, he has cleared this prop in four of six games.

More importantly, Shaheed has seen his playing time increase significantly over the last two weeks. He’s averaging a 68% routes run rate during that span, making him the Saints’ No. 2 receiver behind Chris Olave. Shaheed went for two catches and 53 receiving yards against the 49ers last week, so he’s done nothing to warrant less playing time.

Based on his underlying usage, I’m projecting Shaheed for right around 1.6 catches on 2.8 targets.

He’s more of an explosive/deep threat, so five of his eight receptions have cleared 9.5 yards this season.

  • Zero receptions: 20% chance = we lose this bet
  • One reception: 32% chance, which means we have around a 60-62% chance of him clearing this based on his limited sample size.
  • Two receptions: 26% chance, which means we have around a 80-85% chance of him clearing this based on his limited sample size
  • Three or more receptions: 22% chance, which means it’s hard to imagine him not clearing this at this point

Here are the other markets for him:

  • 1.5 receptions over +115/ under -150
  • 13.5 rec yards over -115/ under -115

I think the market is underestimating Shaheed’s chances of getting two or more receptions here, but the best way to invest in this is for his longest reception to be over 9.5 yards. I give this prop around a 60-62% chance of cashing.

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