Public Bettors Still Not Ready to Buy the Cleveland Browns

Oct 05, 2018 1:29 PM EDT
  • Just 22% of bettors are backing the Cleveland Browns as three-point home dogs against the Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET).
  • A crazy 92% of bettors are on the over in the NFC Championship Game rematch between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET).
  • Considering their impressive start to the season, the Rams are unsurprisingly getting three-quarters of spread bets on the road in Seattle (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET).

The public hasn’t been having a great season so far. Last week’s record reads 2-0-1 based on the numbers at the time Week 4’s most popular public bets article was posted, but most bettors weren’t that lucky.

Those who got the Seahawks at the best possible number (-3) pushed, but plenty of Seattle bettors lost on -3.5 and -4. Bettors who took the over in Saints-Giants between 49 and 50.5 won, but there were surely a lot of folks who lost on the over at 51.5-53.

Closing line value, baby.

Here are the three most popular bets for Week 5:

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns

1 p.m. ET

The Ravens are commanding 78% of spread bets, yet they’ve failed to move from -3 to -3.5 at BookMaker. Their juice has moved to -120, so an adjustment off the key number may be coming in the near future.


Why the public loves Baltimore: The Browns are 1-2-1 and could potentially be 4-0 as they’ve truly had a chance to win every game. Yet, they are still the Browns, and that’s all bettors care about.

The Ravens have been impressive, too, and there’s just no way bettors are passing on the chance to take them against the lovable losers in Cleveland.


>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Minnesota Vikings – Philadelphia Eagles Over (46.5)

4:25 p.m. ET

At 92% of bets, this over is easily getting the most support of any side or total this week. After opening at 44.5, the massive action has forced books to bump the total up to 46.5.


Why the public loves the over: Honestly, this one is a bit of a stumper. The Eagles are averaging around 20 points per game on both offense and defense.

Perhaps bettors believe that the Vikings’ porous defense will allow Philly’s offense to finally get into gear as it has yet to replicate last season’s success.

Then again, doesn’t Minnesota’s elite defense from last year have to show its head at some point, too? I won’t blame anyone for taking the over, but I do find it odd that this many people are in agreement on it.

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

4:25 p.m. ET 

The public is once again on the Rams train as Los Angeles is garnering 75% of spread bets. Oddsmakers were reluctant to move the line off the key number of seven for the first half of the week, but finally moved it to -7.5 on Thursday.


Why the public loves Los Angeles: Umm … do you really want me to explain it?

The Seahawks just aren’t the same team as in recent years, and the Rams are the new kings of the West, NFC and possibly the NFL.

Credit:

Sep 16, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks on during the second half against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Browns 21-18. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money
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