Updated Super Bowl 53 Odds: Saints Marching Toward Top of the List

Oct 01, 2018 6:22 PM EDT
  • Three teams' implied Super Bowl probabilities have improved by 2.4% this week, with the Rams, Saints and Bengals all doing so in different fashion.
  • The past two NFC champions -- Philadelphia and Atlanta -- both took hits this week, falling to +2000 and +4000, respectively.
  • Miami's perfect start came to an end in New England, and its hopes to dethrone the Pats in the AFC East are getting slimmer.

Things are beginning to settle in in the NFL. We’re learning who’s for real and who’s not (Ryan Fitzpatrick). We’re learning that you should never doubt Tom Brady and the Pats after just a few games, and I think we’ve all realized that the Rams are the real deal.

Compared to odds movement in previous weeks, it has been rather tame this week. Of course, there is still a big game to be played on Monday night with the Chiefs in Denver, and their performance could easily swing some numbers.

All odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday at 3 p.m. ET.

A quick explanation on the odds: A $100 bet on +450 odds would return $450, a $100 bet on +1200 odds would return $1,200, etc.

Risers

New Orleans Saints: +1400 to +1000 (+2.4% Implied Probability)

After an ugly start to the season that featured the Saints losing to the Bucs and almost losing to the Browns, New Orleans has rattled off a couple nice victories in a row.

With Atlanta dropping to 1-3, the playoff picture in the NFC South is already looking much more manageable. Also, Alvin Kamara is a frigging beast who can’t be stopped.

Los Angeles Rams: +200 to +180 (+2.4% IP)

Even though the Rams’ defense hasn’t exactly been elite through the first quarter of the season, their offense is a juggernaut. You’re not going to win a shootout against this team.

And even though the odds movement from +200 to +180 appears minuscule, it represents the same swing in implied odds as the Saints’ move from +1400 to +1000.

Cincinnati Bengals: +4000 to +2000 (+2.4 IP)

Well, what do you know? Another 2.4% movement. Well I’ll be a son of a gun …

The Bengals actually appear to be a pretty solid football team, especially on offense. Andy Dalton has utilized a lot of players, and they’ve scored the fourth-most points per game in the league.

If you love point differentials, you’ll note that the Bengals have been a bit lucky this season, as their +13 is the third-worst of nine teams with a 3-1 record or better.


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Fallers

Philadelphia Eagles: +1400 to +2000 (-1.9% IP)

The Titans keep giving teams trouble, as the Eagles could not hold a fourth-quarter lead and fell in OT to Tennessee. Luckily for Philly, its division appears to be one of the weaker ones.

The Eagles’ top-10 defense has looked good for the most part, but their offense hasn’t quite been there at just 20.5 points per game — seventh-worst in the league.

Miami Dolphins: +3000 to +6000 (-1.6% IP)

In a shocking turn of events, the undefeated Miami Dolphins lost in New England to the mediocre 1-2 Patriots squad in disastrous fashion. Did anyone see this coming?

Even though the Dolphins still lead the AFC East, their Super Bowl odds have plummeted to 60-1. Personally, I thought they were going to match the ’72 Fins and go undefeated through the Super Bowl. I guess I was way off …

Atlanta Falcons: +2500 to +4000 (-1.4% IP)

The Falcons are slipping big-time. At 1-3, they’ll have to leapfrog the Saints and Panthers if they want to win the division.

Sure, there’s still plenty of time, but at this point, it’ll be tough to make the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl. I guess that’s why they’re 40-1.

Credit:

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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