NFL Betting Trends Update: Contrarian Bettors Crushing Through Week 4

NFL Betting Trends Update: Contrarian Bettors Crushing Through Week 4 article feature image

Sep 27, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Brandin Cooks (12) celebrates after scoring a touchdown the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

  • Through four weeks of the season, teams getting the majority of spread bets have done quite poorly both against the spread and straight up.
  • Overs have been hitting more often than unders, which isn't surprising considering the record-setting pace in several offensive categories.
  • The Rams and Chiefs have shot up the Super Bowl odds list, while the Texans have seen the worst movement since the start of the year.

We’re basically a quarter of the way through the 2018 NFL season with most teams playing four of their 16 games so far. There are plenty of takeaways, and some are more evident than others.

The leading storyline in betting is teams getting the minority of spread bets are having the best season through four weeks that we’ve ever tracked (dating back to 2003).

Here are some of the basics in terms of betting trends so far.

Situational Spots

  • Favorites: 28-34-1 against the spread (ATS), 39-22-2 straight up (-2.3 units)
  • Dogs: 34-28-1 ATS, 22-39-2 SU (+6.6u)
  • Home: 33-29-1 ATS, 38-23-2 SU (+2.3u)
  • Away: 29-33-1 ATS, 23-38-2 SU (+1.7u)

Betting Market

  • Teams with more than 50% of spread bets: 23-38-1 ATS, 32-28-2 SU (-11.2u)
  • Teams with at least 60% of spread bets: 13-20-1 ATS, 20-12-2 SU (-2.9u)
  • Teams with at least 70% of spread bets: 3-9 ATS, 4-7-1 SU (-5.8u)
  • Teams with fewer than 50% of spread bets: 38-23-1 ATS, 28-32-2 SU (+15.4u)
  • Teams with 40% of spread bets or less: 20-13-1 ATS, 12-20-2 SU (+7.2u)
  • Teams with 30% of spread bets or less: 9-3 ATS, 7-4-1 SU (+11.5u)


  • Overs: 34-29
  • Totals with at least 70% of bets: 10-6

Against-the-Spread Superlatives

  • Best ATS Team: Chiefs 4-0
  • Worst ATS Team: Broncos 0-3-1

Super Bowl Risers

  • Los Angeles Rams: +900 to +175 (+26.4% implied probability)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: +3000 to +700 (+9.3% IP)
  • Cincinnati Bengals: +8000 to +2500 (+2.6% IP)

Super Bowl Fallers

  • Houston Texans: +1200 to +5000-(-5.7% IP)
  • Los Angeles Chargers & Pittsburgh Steelers: +1200 to +3000 (-4.5% IP)
  • Atlanta Falcons & Minnesota Vikings: +1400 to +4000 & +1000 to +2000  (-4.3% IP)

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