NFL Playoff Props: Dak Prescott, Cooper Kupp, Rob Gronkowski, Devin Singletary Among Expert’s Leader Picks

NFL Playoff Props: Dak Prescott, Cooper Kupp, Rob Gronkowski, Devin Singletary Among Expert’s Leader Picks article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski

I’m going all-in on 2022 NFL playoff props — and some of the best values on the board are in the yardage leader markets.

I simulated each round of the postseason 10,000 times to calculate the true odds for these markets. And after comparing my projections to various sportsbooks, I’ve made five picks, including Dak Prescott to lead the postseason in passing yards and Cooper Kupp in receiving yards.

NFL Playoff Yardage Leaders


JUMP TO: Pass | Rush | Rec
MORE: WC Leaders | Sat WC Picks


Passing Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Patrick Mahomes, KC 25.50% +292
Tom Brady, TB 18.60% +438
Dak Prescott, DAL 13.20% +658
Josh Allen, BUF 11.50% +770
Matthew Stafford, LAR 9.30% +975
Joe Burrow, CIN 7.60% +1216
Aaron Rodgers, GB 5.30% +1787
Kyler Murray, ARI 3.20% +3025
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF 2.60% +3746
Derek Carr, LV 1.30% +7592
Mac Jones, NE 0.90% +11011
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 0.40% +24900
Ryan Tannehill, TEN 0.20% +49900
Jalen Hurts, PHI 0.40% +24900

Pick: Dak Prescott +800

There isn’t much value in this market, but Prescott at +800 is the best bet.

The Cowboys are around +600 to make the Super Bowl (14.3% implied probability), and he would have a good chance of emerging as this market’s leader if that ends up being the case, but his per-game ceiling is high enough to win this market even if they end up playing only three games.

I’m projecting his fair odds closer to +650.



Rushing Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Derrick Henry, TEN 18.40% +443
Leonard Fournette, TB 12.20% +720
Joe Mixon, CIN 12.10% +726
Devin Singletary, BUF 11.30% +785
Sony Michel, LAR 9.10% +999
Elijah Mitchell, SF 8.90% +1024
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL 6.70% +1393
Damien Harris, NE 4.60% +2074
Aaron Jones, GB 4.10% +2339
Darrel Williams, KC 3.20% +3025
Josh Jacobs, LV 2.30% +4248
Najee Harris, PIT 1.60% +6150
A.J. Dillon, GB 1.40% +7043
Josh Allen, BUF 1.10% +8991
Click to expand the rest of Koerner’s rushing yards leader projections
Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
James Conner, ARI 0.50% +19900
Chase Edmonds, ARI 0.50% +19900
Tony Pollard, DAL 0.50% +19900
Miles Sanders, PHI 0.50% +19900
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE 0.30% +33233
Jalen Hurts, PHI 0.30% +33233
Kyler Murray, ARI 0.20% +49900
Cam Akers, LAR 0.10% +99900
Jordan Howard, PHI 0.10% +99900

Pick: Devin Singletary +1400

Over the past several games, the Bills have become a more run-heavy team, opting to use six offensive linemen at a higher rate to provide Singletary with better running lanes. It’s resulted in the best four-game stretch of Singletary’s career with rushing lines of 22/86/1, 12/39/1, 23/110/2 and 19/88/1.

I’m betting on him to carry that momentum into the playoffs, where the Bills are among the top Super Bowl contenders with +350 odds to make the big game.

Singletary is a sneaky play in this market. I’m projecting his fair odds closer to +800.

Pick: Elijah Mitchell +2000

The 49ers will try to give Mitchell 20+ touches every game, so if they make it to the playoffs, he’ll have an excellent chance to take down this market.

I’m projecting his fair odds closer to +1050.


Receiving Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Cooper Kupp, LAR 19.40% +415
Davante Adams, GB 13.50% +641
Tyreek Hill, KC 11.20% +793
Stefon Diggs, BUF 9.10% +999
Travis Kelce, KC 7.20% +1289
Mike Evans, TB 6.30% +1487
Rob Gronkowski, TB 5.80% +1624
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN 5.70% +1654
CeeDee Lamb, DAL 5.00% +1900
Tee Higgins, CIN 2.80% +3471
Amari Cooper, DAL 2.10% +4662
A.J. Brown, TEN 1.50% +6567
Christian Kirk, ARI 1.10% +8991
Click to expand the rest of Koerner’s receiving yards leader projections
Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
George Kittle, SF 0.90% +11011
A.J. Green, ARI 0.70% +14186
Gabriel Davis, BUF 0.70% +14186
Deebo Samuel, SF 0.70% +14186
Zach Ertz, ARI 0.60% +16567
Dalton Schultz, DAL 0.60% +16567
Dallas Goedert, PHI 0.60% +16567
Tyler Boyd, CIN 0.50% +19900
Hunter Renfrow, LV 0.50% +19900
Diontae Johnson, PIT 0.50% +19900
Cedrick Wilson, DAL 0.40% +24900
Odell Beckham Jr., LAR 0.30% +33233
Darren Waller, LV 0.30% +33233
Jakobi Meyers, NE 0.30% +33233
Brandon Aiyuk, SF 0.30% +33233
Dawson Knox, BUF 0.20% +49900
Byron Pringle, KC 0.20% +49900
DeVonta Smith, PHI 0.20% +49900
Cole Beasley, BUF 0.10% +99900
Tyler Higbee, LAR 0.10% +99900
Zay Jones, LV 0.10% +99900
Kendrick Bourne, NE 0.10% +99900
Nelson Agholor, NE 0.10% +99900
Chase Claypool, PIT 0.10% +99900
Tyler Johnson, TB 0.10% +99900
Julio Jones, TEN 0.10% +99900

Pick: Cooper Kupp +900

You don’t have to like the Rams’ chances of making it to the Super Bowl to like this prop — there is a real chance Kupp can top this market if the Rams play only three games. And if they do make it to the Super Bowl (+500 odds to do so), he will likely win this market.

I’m projecting his fair odds closer to +450 (essentially their chances of making it to the Super Bowl).

Pick: Rob Gronkowski +3000

With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the picture, Tom Brady will have to lean on Gronk even more. He’s carrying a ton of momentum into the playoffs with back-to-back games of 100+ yards.

I’m projecting his fair odds closer to +1700.

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