NFL Playoff Props: Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Elijah Mitchell, Sony Michel, More Wild Card Leader Picks

NFL Playoff Props: Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Elijah Mitchell, Sony Michel, More Wild Card Leader Picks article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

NFL playoff leaders are among my favorite props to bet each postseason, but I’m not just betting on yardage leaders for the full playoffs — I’m also betting on yardage leaders for just Wild Card Weekend.

I simulated this week’s opening round 10,000 times to calculate the true odds for key players in these markets. And after comparing my projections to the books, I’ve made six picks, including Ja’Marr Chase to lead the weekend in receiving yards and Elijah Mitchell to lead it in rushing yards.

NFL Wild Card Yardage Leaders


JUMP TO: Pass | Rush | Rec
MORE: Playoff Leaders | Sat WC Picks
 


Passing Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Dak Prescott, DAL 14.60% +585
Matthew Stafford, LAR 14.00% +614
Patrick Mahomes, KC 14.30% +599
Tom Brady, TB 12.20% +720
Joe Burrow, CIN 9.80% +920
Kyler Murray, ARI 8.70% +1049
Derek Carr, LV 7.90% +1166
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF 6.50% +1438
Josh Allen, BUF 5.30% +1787
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 3.90% +2464
Mac Jones, NE 1.90% +5163
Jalen Hurts, PHI 1.10% +8991

Pick: Derek Carr +1600

Carr offers sneaky value here.

The Raiders have the second-highest pass rate when trailing this season, so as 4.5-point underdogs against the Bengals (check real-time NFL odds here), there’s a realistic chance the Raiders are forced into a pass-heavy game script.

Darren Waller returned to action last week, which helps raise Carr’s ceiling — not to mention DeSean Jackson could always pop up out of nowhere with a deep catch (or two) to give Carr a shot at hitting this prop.

I’m projecting his true odds closer to +1150.



Rushing Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Elijah Mitchell, SF 22.90% +337
Joe Mixon, CIN 17.10% +485
Najee Harris, PIT 9.80% +920
Sony Michel, LAR 8.90% +1024
Josh Jacobs, LV 8.80% +1036
Devin Singletary, BUF 7.90% +1166
Leonard Fournette, TB 5.10% +1861
Damien Harris, NE 4.80% +1983
Darrel Williams, KC 4.40% +2173
Click to expand the rest of Koerner’s rushing yards leader projections
Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL 2.90% +3348
Miles Sanders, PHI 1.90% +5163
Chase Edmonds, ARI 1.70% +5782
Jalen Hurts, PHI 1.10% +8991
Josh Allen, BUF 0.80% +12400
James Conner, ARI 0.40% +24900
Jordan Howard, PHI 0.40% +24900
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB 0.40% +24900
Cam Akers, LAR 0.20% +49900
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE 0.20% +49900
Tony Pollard, DAL 0.10% +99900
Deebo Samuel, SF 0.10% +99900

Pick: Elijah Mitchell +650

The 49ers will likely lean on Mitchell to have clock-killing drives that allow them to keep the Cowboys offense on the sideline. Mitchell has the potential for 25+ carries here, and in a market where we want as much upside as possible, he fits the bill.

I’m projecting his true odds closer to +350, making this one of my favorite bets of the weekend.

Pick: Sony Michel +1600

There’s some uncertainty about how many touches Cam Akers will see after making his season debut in Week 18. But while that lowers Michel’s floor, he still offers one of the highest ceilings in this market.

Head coach Sean McVay has preferred leaning on only one back, so there’s a very real chance the Rams stick with Michel getting 20+ carries. There’s also a chance they lean on the run considering Matthew Stafford has struggled with turnovers over the past few weeks.

I’m projecting his true odds closer to +1000.


Receiving Yards Leader

Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Cooper Kupp, LAR 29.60% +238
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN 7.70% +1199
Stefon Diggs, BUF 6.60% +1415
Tyreek Hill, KC 6.00% +1567
Tee Higgins, CIN 5.20% +1823
CeeDee Lamb, DAL 4.80% +1983
Diontae Johnson, PIT 4.60% +2074
Travis Kelce, KC 3.60% +2678
Rob Gronkowski, TB 3.40% +2841
Mike Evans, TB 2.90% +3348
Christian Kirk, ARI 2.80% +3471
Amari Cooper, DAL 2.60% +3746
Darren Waller, LV 2.50% +3900
Hunter Renfrow, LV 2.10% +4662
George Kittle, SF 2.10% +4662
Dallas Goedert, PHI 2.00% +4900
Deebo Samuel, SF 2.00% +4900
Click to expand the rest of Koerner’s receiving yards leader projections
Player Projected Chance Koerner’s Odds
Zach Ertz, ARI 1.30% +7592
Brandon Aiyuk, SF 1.30% +7592
A.J. Green, ARI 1.20% +8233
DeVonta Smith, PHI 1.20% +8233
Odell Beckham Jr., LAR 1.10% +8991
Jakobi Meyers, NE 0.60% +16567
Zay Jones, LV 0.50% +19900
Dalton Schultz, DAL 0.50% +19900
Chase Claypool, PIT 0.50% +19900
Cedrick Wilson, DAL 0.50% +19900
Tyler Boyd, CIN 0.40% +24900
Van Jefferson, LAR 0.30% +33233
Tyler Higbee, LAR 0.20% +49900
Dawson Knox, BUF 0.20% +49900
Gabriel Davis, BUF 0.10% +99900
Byron Pringle, KC 0.10% +99900
Cole Beasley, BUF 0.10% +99900
Hunter Henry, NE 0.10% +99900

Pick: Cooper Kupp +470

I’m surprised to see books offering Kupp at odds higher than +300. I would imagine they’ll get a ton of action on him at this price as he offers quite a bit of value with other wild-card games featuring potential weather issues and/or lopsided game scripts as Kupp is indoors in what could be a close shootout against the Cardinals.

I’m projecting his true odds closer to +250.

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Pick: Ja’Marr Chase +1500

I’m also surprised to see Chase’s price this high. He offers a ton of upside in a market like this — I’m projecting him closer to +1200, so there’s not a ton of value, but enough to make it worth throwing some change on it.

Pick: CeeDee Lamb +2500

There’s some value on Lamb at this price. The 49ers are a pass funnel defense that the Cowboys will likely attack through the air this Sunday, and while Lamb has been quiet for the past handful of games, he’s one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the league and can erupt at any given moment.

I’m projecting his true odds closer to +2000.

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