One of my favorite NFL season-leader prop bet categories is the touchdown market, particularly rushing touchdowns because TDs are so random and volatile.
By comparison, season-long yardage leaders are mostly going to be led by the favorites.
But rushing touchdowns? I want action on the goal-line backs, guys who vulture scores and are the bane of fantasy football players.
I've got three long-shot picks for most regular-season rushing touchdowns — Nick Chubb, RJ Harvey, Roschon Johnson — and they are all longer than 100-to-1.
NFL Props, Long-Shot Picks — Most Rushing Touchdowns
Nick Chubb, Texans (+12500)
Nick Chubb is on the Texans now, in case you've forgotten.
He should get plenty of early work for the Texans with Joe Mixon (ankle) out for the first four weeks of the season, and it sure looks like Mixon could be out even longer.
Chubb's obviously got his own injury history, but he is a great pure runner and a guy that has a nose for the end zone. In the five seasons he was healthy, Chubb scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of them, hitting 12 twice.
Chubb will be running for offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who coached with the Rams under Sean McVay and previously under Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.
So what happened with the Rams? Well, Kyren Williams had 12 and 14 rushing touchdowns the last two years.
Josh McDaniels' offense has been top six in rushing touchdowns in 10-of-18 seasons. Corey Dillon had 13 under McDaniels, Stevan Ridley had 12, LeGarrette Blount had 18 and Damien Harris had 15. These are not star runners, but when they get close, they're punching it in.
If Caley is implementing something similar to his mentors, Chubb is live to have a big scoring season. He's 125-to-1 at Caesars.
Roschon Johnson, Bears (+15000)
Let's dig a little deeper for my second long shot.
It's a local guy for me: Roschon Johnson of the Bears. He comes in at 150-to-1.
Again, I'm looking at Ben Johnson and what do Ben Johnson's offenses do?
They run the ball into the end zone. Look no further than what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been up to the last few years. That duo has combined for an absurd 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league.
Remember, I ranked the Bears offense eighth in the NFL in my offense preview column. They also have one of the best offensive lines and offensive coordinators — there will be plenty of scoring opportunities if it goes according to plan in Chicago.
All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. So 150-to-1 to lead the league? Sign me up.
I also love Johnson at +4000 to lead the Bears in touchdowns this season at bet365.
RJ Harvey, Broncos (+20000)
My last long-shot rushing TD leader is Broncos rookie RJ Harvey at 200-to-1.
In his last two years at UCF, Harvey was a scoring machine, racking up 38 rushing touchdowns.
Sean Payton loves to pound the rock. His teams have been top seven in rushing touchdowns in 10 of the 17 years as head coach. We've seen big double-digit TD seasons from Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Harvey also gets to run behind an offensive line widely regarded as the second best in the league, and one of the league's best defenses could set the Broncos up routinely with short fields and easy scoring chance.
This is a market I love because you can look at the coaching tendencies — not just the running back talent — and say, "OK, who's your guy to get you into the end zone?"
These three play in the right systems, with the right coaches, who want to lean on the ground game and punch it over the goal line when it's close. They're all excellent long shot, and I wouldn't price any of the three longer than 40-to-1.
