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Updated Super Bowl 53 Odds: Jags, Bears Among Long List of Fallers from Week 7

Oct 22, 2018 1:51 PM EDT

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans linebacker Whitney Mercilus (59) and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Cody Kessler (6)

  • Sunday's Texans-Jaguars game had a major impact on each team's chances at winning Super Bowl 53.
  • Along with the Jags, the Bears and Ravens were among a long list of fallers from Week 7.
  • We break down the biggest risers and fallers based on updated Super Bowl 53 futures from Westgate.

Week 7 featured its fair share of down-to-the-wire finishes, but while those victory margins may have been small, their impact on teams’ Super Bowl 53 odds were significant.

Most teams at the top of Westgate’s updated Super Bowl futures remained the same from last week as no squad saw a crazy odds leap from Week 7.

Plenty of teams, however, took major hits to their Lombardi chances with losses on Sunday.

Here’s how the current futures odds stand as of Monday afternoon.

Click on a date to sort.


Saints: +1000 to +800 (9.09% to 11.11% implied probability)

Week 7 @ Baltimore: Won 24-23

The Saints were the only team to see an implied probability increase of at least 2% from Week 7. At +800, they’re now one of only four teams to be listed short of 10-1.

Chargers: +1800 to +1400 (5.26% to 6.67% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. Tennessee: Won 20-19

Another one-point winner from Sunday, the Chargers are now the only AFC team not named the Patriots or Chiefs to be inside 15-1 odds.

Texans: +5000 to +2500 (1.96% to 3.85% implied probability)

Week 7 @ Jacksonville: Won 20-7

Major props to anyone who bought a Texans future after Week 3. Following its 0-3 start, Houston has risen from +8000 to +2500 to win Super Bowl 53, including a +5000 to +2500 jump with this past week’s win alone.


Jaguars: +2500 to +5000 (3.85% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. Houston: Lost 20-7

On the opposite side of that game, Jacksonville swapped spots with Houston on this list. The Jags are now on a three-game skid and have lost four of five, falling from +2500 to +5000 after Sunday’s loss.

Bears: +3000 to +6000 (3.23% to 1.64% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. New England: Lost 38-31

What a difference one yard makes. Instead of forcing overtime and having a chance to steal a win from the Patriots, the Bears saw their implied Super Bowl chances cut in half following Sunday’s loss.

Ravens: +1800 to +2500 (5.26% to 3.85% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. New Orleans: Lost 24-23

In a nearly identical situation, a missed extra point kept the Ravens from overtime on Sunday, and instead cost them a 1.4% drop in implied chance to win the Super Bowl.

That makes four straight weeks of jumping back and forth from +1800 to +2500 for Baltimore.

Eagles: +2500 to +4000 (3.85% to 2.44% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. Carolina: Lost 21-17

The defending champs looked to be back on track after last Thursday’s win over the Giants. Not the case, apparently.

After blowing a 17-0 lead on Sunday, the Eagles fell to 3-4 and saw their implied chances of repeating dip below 3% for the first time this season.

Bengals: +3000 to +5000 (3.23% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 7 @ Kansas City: Lost 45-10

A hot start to the season had the Bengals as high as 20-1 to win Super Bowl 53 just two weeks ago. Following Cincinnati’s back-to-back losses, however, its implied probability has fallen almost 3% over the past two weeks.

Jets: +8000 to +30000 (1.23% to 0.33% implied probability)

Week 7 vs. Minnesota: Lost 37-17

I don’t think anyone was considering the Jets a Super Bowl contender even before this week’s loss. Still, they did manage to effectively kill whatever chance they had at a Lombardi this year, as their implied probability fell by close to a factor of four.

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