Freedman’s NFL Week 11 Trends & Early Bets: Value on Titans on the Road Against Ravens
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.
Week 10 was something of a mistress to the Masters. But this week, the NFL will once again get all of our attention. Let’s take a look at some applicable trends for the early Week 11 spreads.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for three games this week.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Early Week 11 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.
|Cardinals +3.5 vs. Seahawks||DraftKings|
|Titans +6.5 at Ravens||FanDuel|
|Chiefs -7 at Raiders||FanDuel|
Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Seahawks
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday | TV: FOX/NFL
The football gods are good. At long last, we have a Thursday Night Football game actually worth watching.
Based on their 37-34 win over the Seahawks on Oct. 25 — as well as their 27-13 road win against the Seahawks last year in Week 16 — we know the Cardinals can compete.
And in the second divisional game between two good teams, anything more than a field goal feels like too much.
Historically, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has provided a strong return on investment (ROI) in two distinct situations against the spread (ATS).
- As Underdog: 12-4-2 ATS | 41.3% ROI
- On Road: 8-2-2 ATS | 47% ROI
And when those two situations have overlapped, Kingsbury’s Cardinals have gone 7-1-2 ATS (55.8% ROI) as road dogs.
Overall, Kingsbury is a respectable 14-9-2 ATS (18.3% ROI). His Cardinals consistently overperform.
- Action: Cardinals +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings
- Limit: +3.0 (-110)
Titans +6.5 at Ravens
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS
NOTE: I’m writing this before the end of the Week 10 Sunday Night Football game between the Ravens and Patriots. Lines are not yet posted for the Week 11 Ravens-Titans game, but the lookahead spread at FanDuel was +6.5, and I expect the opening line to be around there, barring any drastic event on SNF.
I like the Titans in this spot for a few reasons.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has failed to develop as a passer this season, and the Titans are No. 1 in the league with a 72.5 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).
A few weeks ago, they added All-Pro slot defender Desmond King II via trade, and No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee) looks like he will return to action in Week 11.
On top of that, the Titans played on Thursday Night Football last week, so they should be especially rested and prepared.
And aside from anything to do with the Titans, I want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue.
Not all teams are either road dogs off a loss or home favorites off a win, but it’s instructive to compare these two cohorts.
- Road Dogs Off a Loss: 765-679-39 ATS | 3.1% ROI
- Home Favorites Off a Win: 725-740-41 ATS | -2.9% ROI
A 3.1% ROI might not seem like much, but it’s significant over a sample this large. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.
This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.
And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the third-most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 27-20 ATS (11.2% ROI).
And last year was the second-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).
Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?
Betting against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since 2019 many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation.
My theory is that road dogs off a loss have been undervalued recently because the influx of new money has made the market less sophisticated. Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on the Titans in this spot, especially given that they’re playing the Ravens.
As great as the Ravens are, opponents are actually 11-5 ATS (33% ROI) against them when quarterback Lamar Jackson is a home favorite.
- Action: Titans +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: +3.5 (-110)
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: NBC
With the Chiefs, head coach Andy Reid has markedly overperformed in two regular-season situations.
- On Road: 39-19-1 ATS | 32.2% ROI
- In Division: 29-15-1 ATS | 29.3% ROI
On the road inside the AFC West, Reid is 17-5 ATS (52.2% ROI).
And it’s just an added bonus that the Chiefs are coming off the bye. In his Kansas City tenure, Reid is 7-4 ATS (23.1% ROI) with an extra week to prepare.
As for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he is 29-14-2 ATS (32.3% ROI) for his career. It’s not often a bad idea to bet on the Chiefs.
- Action: Chiefs -7 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: -9.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 772-614-35 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.