For NFL Week 14, I'm on three spread picks for Commanders vs Vikings, Seahawks vs Falcons and Broncos vs Raiders. I promise you won't like a single one.
You can find those NFL predictions and analysis for each game below.
Let's get into my NFL Week 14 picks and predictions for Sunday, December 7.
NFL Week 14 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Commanders vs. Vikings
Yes, I'm unfortunately backing JJ McCarthy this week. Can he complete wide open passes? That remains to be seen, but he will have ample opportunities to do so against a Washington defense that can't generate any pressure and ranks dead last in drop back EPA. The Commanders have played a bit better on that side of the ball since Dan Quinn took over play-calling duties, but it's still a unit that has suffered major injuries and is extremely deficient in the talent and speed departments.
It's possible the Commanders are a bit flat here after a heartbreaking overtime loss on Sunday night against the Broncos. This will also mark their first road game in over 40 days in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. Plus, I do believe we've reached the bottom of the market on the Vikings, who just completed one of the most vicious seven-game stretches of the season. Just take a look at who Minnesota has faced since coming out of the bye week at 3-2:
- vs. PHI
- at LAC
- at DET
- BAL
- CHI
- at GB
- at SEA
All seven of those teams may make the playoffs and they could've easily gone 3-4 if not for red zone failures against the Eagles and a late kickoff return by the Bears in two close losses. They did win at Detroit with McCarthy at the helm.
Most recently, they were shutout in Seattle in a game where rookie Max Brosmer had a disastrous first start. Even in that contest, Minnesota did have a chance to take the lead late in the first half before Brosmer threw an inexplicable pick-6 on fourth-and-goal that flipped the entire game on its head.
Minnesota has also dealt with significant offensive line issues all season long with its original starting five only playing together in one game this entire season. However, things are trending in the right direction health-wise up front, so there's a decent chance they have all five on Sunday.
That could help spark even more explosive runs (top-5 in that department) against a Washington defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in allowing chunk rushes.
On the other side of the ball, this is still a very formidable Vikings defense under coordinator Brian Flores. They are also as healthy as they've been all season with star pass rusher Jonathan Greenard set to return following a two-game absence. We know Flores will bring the blitz (highest rate in the league to date), which could cause plenty of trouble for Jayden Daniels, who will return to action for the first time since Week 9.
This is not an easy defense to face on the road following an extended absence for a quarterback that ranks 33rd out of 37 (minimum 50 drop backs) in Adjusted Completion % against the blitz with a sky-high turnover worthy play rate. Conversely, Mariota has excelled against the blitz in part due to getting the ball out much quicker.
While I'm not suggesting Mariota is a better quarterback than Daniels, he has had the better overall season. Daniels has had a bit of a sophomore slump and has really never found rhythm with a constantly rotating cast of wide receivers. While Washington has gotten healthier on the outside, it may take some time for Daniels to get going again.
Amazingly, they have both played the same number of plays (251) this season. Here are their respective rankings in a few categories:
- EPA+CPOE composite: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 18th
- Adjusted EPA per Play: Mariota 14th vs. Daniels 21st
- Success Rate: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 16th
- Air Yards: Mariota 1st vs. Daniels 16th
- Passer Rating vs. blitz: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 26th
Not only has Mariota been more efficient and better against the blitz, he's also been more willing to throw the ball deep with a 15% deep-ball rate compared to Daniels' 11%, which is how you want to attack the aggressive Minnesota defense.
Ultimately, Minnesota should generate exponentially more pressure, leading to a number of drive-killing plays, while Minnesota will have plenty of opportunities to hit easy chunk plays on the ground and through the air. As long as McCarthy isn't completely abysmal (which is certainly possible), I like the Vikings to pull out the victory at home.
It will certainly help that the Commanders can't get any pressure and have significantly cut down their blitz rates since Quinn took over, as McCarthy has been a downright disaster when under pressure and against opposing blitzes.
Trending: Generally speaking, I do like to back teams coming off a shutout loss, which can signal a buy low opportunity in the market. Since 2003, teams have covered at a 57% clip after getting shutout, including a gaudy 48-29-3 ATS (62.3%) mark as an underdog, covering by 2.2 points per game on average.
Seahawks vs. Falcons
The Falcons at over a touchdown was the first bet I placed this week since I project this line closer to six points. Now, I was hoping Atlanta would get wide receiver Drake London back from injury, but that looks like a pipe dream at this point. I'd still play this at the current number of 7 but for a smaller amount if you didn't already get Atlanta with the hook.
Kirk Cousins has actually looked pretty good over the past two weeks and provides a higher floor than Michael Penix, who can just be completely off target on any given Sunday. Per PFF, Cousins ranks 20th and Penix 37th out of 42 quarterbacks this season even with Cousins clearly having immense rust early on.
Even without London, I do think the Falcons can move the ball enough to stay within this number in a game where I also like the under, which makes the home dog a bit more appealing.
Over their past five games, the Falcons have gone 1-4 with a +1 point differential with only one of those five coming at home. In fact, over that stretch, they've only trailed once with one second to go in regulation, which came in a road game at New England (which currently has the NFL's best record) in a one-point loss due to a missed extra point.
They easily could have won that game in addition to a neutral site clash with the Colts in Germany. The Falcons also blew a huge lead against the Panthers in an eventual overtime loss. On the season, five of their eight losses have come by three or less (or in overtime). With a few different bounces (and maybe a different head coach), they could still be in the mix for a division title.
Even in its loss against the Jets last week, Atlanta dominated that game statistically with over 120 more net yards (389-269) and a 1.5 net yards per play edge (5.8-4.3). The Falcons were mainly done in by special teams, which is a weekly concern when backing them.
Simply put, I just don't think Atlanta is bad enough to be catching over a touchdown against Seattle, which might be at the peak of its market value following a 9-3 start both SU and ATS.
It's also worth noting that Seattle's offense has been quietly trending down over the past month. That might not be evident on the surface since Seattle keeps winning and putting up points, but it has also played some very poor teams (Titans and Vikings with Brosmer over the past two weeks) and has had a number of defensive scores over that stretch.
Over the past four games, Sam Darnold has thrown only three touchdowns to 5 interceptions with a 4-9 BTT-TWP ratio. Since Week 10, he ranks 25th in EPA+CPOE composite and 26th in Adjusted EPA per Play. Over the first nine weeks of the season, he ranked No. 1 in both categories. And it's not like Darnold has faced a complete murderer's row of defenses over the past month with games against the Cardinals (without corners), Rams, Titans, and Vikings.
So, what has changed? Well, defenses have adjusted to Seattle's unique offense under new coordinator Klint Kubiak, who utilizes a high frequency of play-action and heavy personnel. Defenses are now starting to realize you can't let JSN beat you deep, so I'd expect more bracket coverage looks this week from the Falcons after what we saw last week from the Vikings, who held JSN to two catches for 23 yards.
Atlanta also has done a commendable job overall in limiting pass explosives, which is critical against this Seattle offense, which I truly believe misses the injured Tory Horton with Rashid Shaheed being a non-factor since arriving in Seattle mid-season.
While the Falcons season-long numbers against heavy personnel aren't rosy, they have been significantly better with linebacker Divine Diablo on the field. Without Diablo, the Falcons can not stop the run. And while they still struggle in that area, the Seahawks have not been an overly efficient rushing offense (25th Success Rate, 23rd EPA).
Most importantly, the 2025 Falcons defense can actually generate pressure (5th) and get sacks (3rd). That's key against Darnold, who is still extremely sensitive to pressure, especially in the interior, which Atlanta can take advantage of.
Look, Seattle is a legit contender in the wide-open NFC. Its defense is one of the league's best under Mike Macdonald. I just think this is a good spot to sell high on the Seahawks, who have done a lot of damage against bad teams (8-0 against teams that are not projected to make the postseason vs. 1-3 vs teams that are), while Atlanta has not been as bad as its record indicates.
Lastly, I do like to back this Falcons team as an underdog (5-1 ATS in 2025) and try to avoid at all costs as a favorite where they have consistently flopped. In fact, over the past five seasons, no team has burned bettors more as a favorite than Atlanta, which has gone 15-29 ATS (34.1%) when laying points, failing to cover by over four points per game. Yikes!
Trending: Teams that go on the road following a home shutout have gone just 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) since 2003. Also, the Falcons have not closed as a home underdog of 7 or more points in over four years.
Broncos vs. Raiders
Sadly, I also bet the Raiders and their miserable offense this week. While I'm not looking forward to watching one single minute of Geno Smith taking sacks behind Las Vegas' pitiful (and injured) offensive line against the Broncos, I had to take the 8 points in a game I project slightly under a touchdown.
Las Vegas simply can't block anybody, especially since losing stud left tackle Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson in the interior.
As a result, Ashton Jeanty has no room to run and Geno Smith has no time in the pocket. I'm not even sure what the interior of the offensive line will look like on Sunday with the potential return of Jordan Meredith, who missed last week's game due to injury.
Does Pete Carroll keep Alex Cappa at center and/or go with rookie Caleb Rogers at right guard again? I have no clue. Regardless, it won't be pretty — although the interior at least won't have to deal with Denver starting defensive tackle DJ Jones this week.
So, what is the hope for the Raiders offense? Brock Bowers and potentially garbage time scores. There's not much else to get excited about.
With that said, I'd have to imagine we have reached the bottom of the market for the Raiders' offense, which I don't think can play any worse. And if you're looking for a more optimistic view, this will mark the second game for new play caller Greg Olsen, who I did think did some better things schematically than Chip Kelly. Maybe there's a jump in game 2.
More importantly, this Denver defense might show some extreme fatigue at some point following a road overtime victory last Sunday night against the Commanders in which they played over 90 snaps. It's possible that results in a less potent pass rush.
There also has been a noticeable decline in Denver's pressure rate in recent games. Over the first eight weeks of the season, the Broncos had the league's second-highest pressure rate, but have dropped all the way to 26th since Week 9.
I won't blow any more smoke about this pathetic Raiders offense. It should be a struggle throughout. However, the same can be said for Denver, which only put up 10 points when these teams met earlier this season in a horrendous situational spot for the Raiders, who traveled to altitude on a short week following an overtime game in which its defense saw the field for over 90 snaps. The roles are reversed this time around.
Las Vegas doesn't have the most talented defensive roster outside of Maxx Crosby (who should play with a knee injury), but it is well-schemed under coordinator Patrick Graham. For the pieces Graham has to work with, it's pretty impressive this group ranks 17th in DVOA.
The Raiders do a respectable job against the run and really excel at limiting explosive plays through the air in one of the league's most zone heavy stop units. That's a critical point against Bo Nix, who has struggled mightily against zone compared to man this season. Nix has been a top-10 quarterback in terms of success rate against man coverage, but a bottom-3 passer against zone.
The Raiders will make Nix methodically march down the field, which can be a struggle for the second-year pro, who still has accuracy and consistency issues. Plus, the Broncos rushing attack has just not been as efficient since losing JK Dobbins.
Nix deserves credit for his clutch play in the fourth quarters of games this year, but you can't ignore his lackluster performances over the first three quarters of games where he ranks 27th in Success Rate and 28th in CPOE. And those numbers get even worse if you remove his output vs. two historically bad defenses.
Ultimately, I'm willing to back the ugly home divisional dog at over a touchdown against a potentially fat-and-happy (and maybe fatigued) Denver team in what projects to be a very low scoring affair where points should come at a premium. Plus, this is still a Denver team that really struggled to get margin, especially away from home — although they didn't even do that vs. these same Raiders last month. Just take a look at Denver's results outside of Mile High:
- L by 1 at IND
- L by 3 AT LAC
- W by 4 at PHI
- W by 2 vs NYJ
- W by 3 at HOU
- W by 1 at WAS
The Broncos have gone 4-2 away from home with a +6 point differential despite playing three backup quarterbacks. All four of their wins have come by four points or less.4-2 +6 point differential. Hold your nose and hope Geno doesn't take 13 sacks.
Trending: Since 2003, home divisional dogs of more than a TD have covered at a 56.3% clip. And when the total closes below, those home pups have gone 42-21-9 ATS (70%), covering by over a TD per game on average.
In addition to my three spread picks above, here are some additional plays that I like:
Anytime TD Lottery Parlay
Michael Wilson/Josh Whyle
