NFL Week 17 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 6 Games Fit Thresholds
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for NFL Week 17.
As a quick recap, we've been tracking the against-the-spread (ATS) records of unlucky teams in a matchup if the game meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage that's at least 50% worse than their opponent.
In addition, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 114-66-6 (62.9%) ATS since the start of 2018.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-0 to the under last week, but started off 0-1 this week on Thursday Night Football, making the record 27-17-1 (61.1%) to the under this year and 121-83-3 (59.2%) over the last six years. Luck Overs went 1-0 last week, moving them to 36-18-1 (66.4%) to the over in the last six years.
There are five games that meet either the matchup or total criteria for Week 17. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 17
Two luck-based games have taken place prior to Sunday, with both Jets vs. Browns and Lions vs. Cowboys as Luck Unders. Here are the other four.
New Orleans ranks 31st in our Luck Rankings while the Buccaneers rank second. That gives this game a Luck Differential of 29, triggering major signals on the visiting Saints.
Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Differential of at least 28 are:
- 21-11-1 ATS (65.2%).
- 12-4 ATS (75%) if also on the road.
- 14-4-1 ATS (76.3%) after Week 11.
- 8-1 ATS (88.9%) if also on the road after Week 11.
In addition, from Week 14 to the second-to-last week of the regular season, unlucky teams with a Luck Differential of at least 24 places are 19-2-1 (88.6) ATS.
From a luck perspective, the Saints are a strong play this weekend.
The Chiefs rank 29th in our Luck Rankings while the Bengals fell from the top spot to No. 4. The Luck Difference of 25 is enough to make this a Luck Matchup.
Like the Saints, the Chiefs fit the trend of unlucky teams with a differential of 24 or more from Week 14 to the second-to-last week of the regular season, putting them in that 19-2-1 cohort.
That said, they also are the home team, which makes some of the other larger sample-size splits a bit weaker. Home teams with a Luck Differential of 24 or more at any point in the season are 29-24-2 ATS (54.5%).
Combining the two, this is a moderately strong luck signal on the Chiefs.
Both of these games are Luck Unders thanks to the Luck Totals of -5.7 (ARI/PHI) and -6.5 (SF/WAS).
This game also falls in the sweet spot for late-season Luck Unders, as games with a Luck Total between -5 and -7 are 23-11-2 (66.7%) to the under if they occur after Week 10 (including the playoffs), but not including the final week of the regular season, when teams with nothing to play for often rest players. Incentives also come into play.
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