NFL Week 17 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 5 Games Fit Thresholds
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Demario Davis (left) and Derek Carr.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage that's at least 50% worse than their opponent.
A new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 114-65-6 (63.2%) ATS since the start of 2018, including 12-9-2 (56.5%) this year.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 3.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-0 to the under last week, are 27-16-1 (66.7%) to the under this year and 121-82-3 (59.5%) to the under in the last six years.
Luck Overs meeting the second criterion are 6-1 (85.7%) to the over this year and 36-18-1 (66.4%) to the over in the last six years.
Luck Totals in either direction have a record of 170-105-4 (61.6%) over the last six years and 33-17-1 (65.7%) this year.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for Luck Games in Week 17.
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NFL Luck Rankings Week 17 Games
New Orleans ranks 31st in our Luck Rankings while the Buccaneers rank second. That gives this game a Luck Differential of 29, triggering major signals on the visiting Saints.
Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Differential of at least 28 are:
Our PRO Projections currently have this as Saints +2.4 so getting the full field goal is a great opportunity.
With 90% of the money on New Orleans despite just 67% of the tickets, it's clear the bigger money is also on the Saints.
With this more likely to move to +2.5 than +3.5, I've already grabbed the Saints.
Verdict: Bet Saints +3.
The Luck Total of -6.3 makes this a Luck Under, and I can get behind that for a few reasons.
Joe Flacco has stepped up for the Browns as they've scored 106 points in his four starts. However, they've gone over their Expected Score in three of those games with a total Expected Score of 98 points, or about two points extra per game.
Now he faces a Jets defense that's been great against the pass. That should negatively impact the Browns offense as according to my colleague Anthony Dabbundo, the Browns have significantly increased their early down throw rates.
The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off three straight games in which the total points scored were more than the total points via Expected Score.
In addition, there's a small chance of inclement weather that could serve as an extra aid to keep scoring down.
With most of the money coming in on the under, and with 34 and 33 being much more significant than 35, the time to play this under is now before it gets to 34.
Verdict: Bet under 35.
This game has a Luck Total of -6.6, making it the lowest of Week 17.
I'm happy to wait this one out as our PRO Report has tracked both sharp action and big money on the over. That means we could see a move to 54, which gets us a push on a somewhat key number.
That said, if this drops to 53 I'd jump immediately as things will clearly be moving in the wrong direction — but I'm willing to sacrifice a potential push on 53 given it's extremely low prevalence as a final total.
I'm also fine if you don't want to wait given I have this closer to 52.5 with a lean on the under even at that number. Detroit has been involved in games with a total average Expected Score of 48 points while Dallas sits at 45.6 by this metric. The NFL average is just 43, so using some math I can generously get this game to an expected total of 52.5, but not higher.
That's relatively in line with our PRO Projections, which have this at 52.8.
Verdict: Wait for 54, but bet under if line drops to 53.
I'm going to pass on this one given some conflicting metrics.
While it is notable that Arizona has been involved in two straight games with totals that went above expectation — and Philadelphia nine in a row — 48 is still right in line with where this should be.
My personal projections put this at 48.6 while our PRO Projections have this at 48.4, so, if anything, it would be a slight lean to the over.
The bigger money is coming in on the under though — 85% of the money is on the under despite 76% of the bets on the over.
Unlikely, but if this moves up to 49 by kickoff, then I don't mind backing the under.
Verdict: Pass unless 49 pops up.
This is another spot I'll be passing on simply because I'm right in line with the current total.
If this game featured Sam Howell as the starting QB for the Commanders, then I'd definitely back the under, but Jacoby Brissett has been better in a limited sample size this year, which pushes this up into the correct territory.
While Luck Totals have crushed this year, I don't want to get involved in a small sample size spot.
Verdict: Pass.
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