NFL Week 5 Best Bets: 5 Expert Picks for Sunday’s 1 P.M. Games
For Sunday's late afternoon games and our best bets for Chiefs vs Vikings, Eagles vs Rams, Bengals vs Cardinals and Jets vs Broncos, click here:
NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Odds: 7 Expert Picks for Sunday's Late Games.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: 5 Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
For Sunday's late afternoon games and our best bets for Chiefs vs Vikings, Eagles vs Rams, Bengals vs Cardinals and Jets vs Broncos, click here: NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Odds: 7 Expert Picks for Sunday's Late Games.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Falcons
The Texans look for real, and they're just starting to get healthy. But I don't trust their run defense yet, especially in this matchup. I'll skip the side or moneyline so I don't have to worry about the D. Instead, I'll just focus on C.J. Stroud and the offense getting to 21, and at plus money to boot.
I'm going to play the Bijan Robinson rushing upside, too; I like it even in a big Texans game, and it's also a bit of insurance in case this goes Atlanta's way.
Panthers vs. Lions
We hit big on Adam Thielen's receptions escalator last week, so let's go back to the well. The Panthers will likely spend most of this game playing from behind like usual, and Thielen has plenty of experience running routes against these Detroit corners.
Thielen caught seven, 11 and seven balls the last three weeks on 31 targets. He's getting heavy target volume and also converted a very high percentage (81%) into catches. I'll stay away from yards or TDs, but I want receptions on volume alone. I expected this to rise to 5.5 so we'll play over 4.5 with confidence and play the Thielen escalator again at +360 for 7+ catches.
Pick: Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions
Panthers vs. Lions
By Sam Farley
Hayden Hurst hasn't been great this year, but the matchup is simply too good to pass up.
Through four games, the Lions have allowed 32 receptions and 303 yards to tight ends. Those 32 receptions are second-most in the league to the Bears' 34, who have already played their fifth game on Thursday Night Football. Those 303 yards allowed are the most in the league.
Hurst has had nine receptions in the three games he’s played with Bryce Young; he’s failed to top over 2.5 receptions just once. It's also worth noting that he's had at least three targets in every game.
With this tasty matchup, I'll be taking Hurst to haul in at least three passes.
Pick: Hayden Hurst Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
Giants vs. Dolphins
After just one game of significant playing time, Achane has supplanted Raheem Mostert as the Dolphins’ main ball carrier.
Achane out-snapped Mostert 39 to 28 and finished the game with one more touch as well. In a game where the Dolphins should be playing from a positive game script, Achane's 11 touches from Week 4 feels like his absolute floor.
The Dolphins as a team lead the league in yards per rush at an astounding 6.3 yards per attempt. Achane is a huge reason for the Dolphins having the most explosive running game in football. The rookie back has only 27 carries, but 18.5% of those rushes have gained 15 or more yards, by far the best rate in the NFL. Even more incredibly, Achane has forced 16 missed tackles; that is only four fewer than the likes of fellow rookie Bijan Robinson, who has twice as many carries.
The Giants are 22nd in both yards per carry allowed and rush defense DVOA. Every lead running back they have faced thus far has reached at least 70 yards rushing.
There is a case to be made that none of them are quite as explosive as Achane. This number is far too low and is my strongest player prop position over the first five weeks of the season.
Play Achane over 49.5 rushing yards up to 57.5.
Pick: De'Von Achane Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Bet to 57.5)
Ravens vs. Steelers
There's no doubt Pittsburgh is banged up and that Matt Canada's offense looks completely outmatched, especially against a Baltimore defense playing really well. But you've been watching Steelers games long enough to know that doesn't matter much in this rivalry. Just play the spot.
This is exactly where we bet on Mike Tomlin — as an underdog, at home, in a division game, off a deflating loss. You always want the dog in this rivalry. When Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS (81%). And one of my favorite stats: Since 2005, underdogs in this rivalry, when the line is 3 or higher, are a 18-2 ATS (90%).
Pick: Steelers +4.5 (Bet to 4)
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