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NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Rating the 2-2 Teams

NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Rating the 2-2 Teams article feature image
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Imagn Images: Patrick Mahomes

One month into the NFL season, things are beginning to take shape.

The Bills and Eagles are good. The Titans, Saints and Jets — not so much. Those are the only five teams that still have a goose egg in the wins or losses column.

But there are a glut of teams stuck somewhere in the middle, including nine of them right at 2-2.

Are the Chiefs back? Can the Vikings figure things out overseas? Will we get the good Falcons and Commanders or the bad ones any given week? Are the Bengals already cooked? And was all that offseason hype for the Broncos and Bears merited?

Over a quarter of the league sits at 2-2 after four games, and though that record is not a death knell, only seven 2-2 teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl — though perhaps notable that four were this century, including the 2007 Giants and three Patriots teams ('03, '14, '18).

So what do we make of all these 2-2 teams? Let's do a 2-2 Teams NFL Power Rankings from best to worst and take a look at whose futures are worth investing in and which teams are ripe for fading.

Tier 1 — Still Super Bowl Contenders

1. Green Bay Packers*

Wins:Lions, Commanders
Losses:Browns
Ties:Cowboys

Okay fine, the Packers technically don't qualify for this column at 2-1-1 after that wild 40-40 Sunday night tie. But in the crowded NFC, a tie might end up about as good as a loss for Green Bay, so we're going to talk about the Packers anyway.

Green Bay has given a win away in consecutive weeks, but it matters that the Packers were in line for a win both times. They dominated the Browns for 55 minutes before falling apart late with some wonky special teams, and they were much better than Dallas the entire first half and very unlucky to be trailing at halftime.

Recency bias leaves plenty of doubt, but let's not forget that this team manhandled both the Lions and Commanders in dominating fashion.

Green Bay still looks like the class of the NFC to me.

The Packers should really be 4-0 as they head into the bye, and this is a chance to reset and learn from the last two games' mistakes. It's also an opportunity to get Micah Parsons healthy and fully integrated and unleashed in this defense, since his acquisition was just a week before the season.

After the bye, the Packers get the Bengals, Cardinals, Steelers, and Panthers. That's a pretty clear path to 6-1-1, and that tie is not a loss either, so it matters that Green Bay actually doesn't qualify for this column when it comes to NFC standings and playoff positioning.

This defense was poor in the second half against Dallas but was great for seven halves previously. The offense needs Jordan Love to cut down his mistakes and establish some more consistency. But this still looks as tough an out as any when we get to playoff football.

VERDICT: The Packers still have some kinks to work out, but the flashes early have been terrific. They look as dangerous as any team in the NFC, and the bye comes at the perfect time for an early reset and chance to settle in for the long haul on a serious Super Bowl threat.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Wins: Giants, Ravens
Losses:Chargers, Eagles

What a difference a couple weeks make.

Two weeks ago, Patrick Mahomes was 0-2 and the sky was falling. Then the Chiefs got right against the Giants before absolutely rolling through the Ravens Sunday, and suddenly the Chiefs are sitting pretty at 2-2 with the Chargers facing cluster injuries on the offensive line and only one game up in the division.

Kansas City has really only played one poor game so far, the Brazil opener against the Chargers. Neither side of the ball was good, and the offense sure didn't look good those first couple weeks. But it did outgain the Eagles in Week 2 in a game the Chiefs might very well have won if not for a Travis Kelce tipped interception near the end zone, and the offense seems to have found itself the last couple games.

The Chiefs still aren't their old exciting selves but are finding some sustained success and hitting the occasional big play. The offensive line is playing better, the play calling seems to have found its groove, and Xavier Worthy is back with Rashee Rice just two games away.

For all the hand wringing early on, the Chiefs sit at 7th in Offensive DVOA and 13th on defense. I projected Kansas City at 5th and 13th before the season, so here we are, right about at expectations — with a team we all know will round into shape and peak when it matters most late.

Baltimore effectively couldn't make a single defensive stop against the Chiefs all game until garbage time, and Kansas City's defense has also rebounded from an early start, especially the pass defense.

Kansas City still isn't out of the woods. It won't be easy in Jacksonville on Monday night, nor next Sunday night against the Lions. Still, get through that 3-3 and the Chiefs should be fine. It may be tough to catch the Bills for the 1-seed but the AFC is so wide open with the Ravens and Texans ailing that Kansas City may well still be the second biggest threat right now.

The Chiefs are +155 to win the AFC West at DraftKings. The Chargers are a game up with the head-to-head tiebreaker but dealing with major offensive line injuries. Both teams are in fairly coin-flippy games this week, so if you like the Chiefs and want to fade the Chargers, this could be the right time to buy a division ticket.

VERDICT: Kansas City is fine. The Chiefs will continue to get better as the season progresses, and like always, they're in it for the long haul.

Tier 2 — Quietly Dreaming About the Playoffs

3. New England Patriots

Wins:Dolphins, Panthers
Losses:Raiders, Steelers

Surprised to see the Patriots this early on the list? Blame the wide-open AFC.

New England has wins over two of the least impressive teams in the league thus far, but the Patriots have competed in every game and badly outplayed Pittsburgh in a loss brought about almost entirely by five turnovers.

On balance, New England should probably be 3-1, so a 2-2 start against such a soft schedule would actually be a bit disappointing — if it weren't for the schedule looking about that soft all season. The Patriots are big underdogs in Buffalo this Sunday night, but then they get the Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals, and Giants before a bye week. That's a lot of winnable games for a team that is rounding into shape.

I liked the Patriots coming into the season because of their defense, but that unit has struggled thus far, especially against the pass. What's surprising is that the offense is well ahead of the curve so far, and Drake Maye has been about as good as you could hope for at this stage of his career. The Patriots are top quarter of the league in passing DVOA and Maye is ripping defenses apart with his reads and throws.

With the offense ahead of schedule, could New England's defense now catch up? Young star corner Christian Gonzalez finally suited up this week as the Pats rolled the Panthers, and the special teams has flashed some big-play ability on returns. The Patriots already rank top quarter of the league in run defense, but pairing Gonzalez with Carlton Davis should totally reshape this secondary now too.

Only nine AFC teams right now are 2-2 or better, and the Bengals — we'll get back to them much later — are one of them. That could mean eight AFC teams fighting for seven spots unless the Ravens or Texans make a push, and that's assuming none of the 3-1 Steelers, Colts, and Jaguars stumble.

All of that means it might be time to invest in some Patriots stock, perhaps a make playoffs ticket at +172 (FanDuel). If you think New England is drawing dead in Buffalo and want to wait a week, that's your prerogative, but New England has a lot of winnable games soon and a young QB that looks ready to make the leap.

VERDICT: The AFC is where you want a sleeper right now, and the Patriots are being slept on. This is a legit playoff threat and worth investing, either now at +172 or next week after a potential loss in Buffalo.

4. Atlanta Falcons

Wins: Vikings, Commanders
Losses: Bucs, Panthers

It's been quite a roller coaster for this young Falcons squad, but there's plenty to like.

Atlanta dominated the Vikings with an electric defensive performance, and the Falcons easily dispatched of Marcus Mariota and the Commanders this week. The Birds could've very well beat the Bucs in Week 1 too before blowing it late.

Even the 30-0 shutout loss to the Panthers looks awful on paper but was partly just bad luck and the game getting away late when Atlanta probably outplayed Carolina. That's a second division loss either way, but Atlanta should probably be 3-1.

Michael Penix has been up and down but still has only half a season of starts in his career, and he's ripping some of those big-time throws down the sidelines that get you excited. Atlanta got touchdowns from Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts this week, basically the dream scenario, and OC Zac Robinson is starting to unlock this offense's potential.

Add in a surprising defensive effort from DC Jeff Ulbrich's unit thus far — 8th in DVOA — and Atlanta could really be cooking if its offense can find a bit more consistency.

The Falcons get an early bye now, helpful for a young team, and then we'll see plenty of this team with two night games against the Bills and 49ers after the bye. That's a tough stretch, but the schedule gets a whole lot softer the rest of the way from there.

Atlanta is one of six teams to have outgained its opponent in every game this season. The other five — Bills, Packers, Rams, Chargers, and 49ers — are a pretty good group of peers to keep.

VERDICT: Atlanta's defense is ahead of its offense, so if the offense starts to catch up with the schedule softening up late, there will be opportunities to invest in this team's future.

Tier 3 — Is Last Year Still in There Somewhere?

5. Minnesota Vikings

Wins: Bears, Bengals
Losses: Falcons, Steelers

The Vikings have been a tough team to get a handle on.

Minnesota has been pretty bad for the first three quarters of three of its four games now, all but the Bengals blowout. The Vikings stole one of those games late in Chicago, but Minnesota is certainly closer to being 1-3 than 3-1. The only safe win was thanks to five Cincinnati turnovers.

Still, this might end up being the worst four-week stretch of the season for Minnesota.

The Vikings have been inundated with injuries. The offensive line is in sorry shape. C Ryan Kelly has been in and out of the lineup and will likely miss awhile. LT Christian Darrisaw is finally back, just in time for RT Brian O'Neill to leave hurt. Both guards have missed time. The defense has had injuries up and down the roster and is still missing key linebackers. And, of course, J.J. McCarthy is out.

Minnesota wraps up two weeks in Europe before an early bye the team badly needs, and if the Vikings can get there at 3-2, it will give this team a chance to get healthy and figure out its offense during the break. The return of Jordan Addison can only help, and it's probably time to reintegrate McCarthy into the lineup since Carson Wentz still shows zero internal clock in the backfield.

It won't be easy. After the bye, the Vikings play the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears, Packers, and Seahawks. That's a brutal stretch and could mean Minnesota is hoping for something like 6-6 at best before a trip around the rest of the NFC East (Commanders, Cowboys, Giants) and a pair of home games against Detroit and Green Bay. That final stretch will decide the season.

Minnesota's defense and special teams have been terrific. The offense is letting the team down. But a healthier line and the return of McCarthy and Addison should raise both the floor and the ceiling, and this is still a top-10 power rating on paper.

VERDICT: Don't give up on the Vikings yet, but it's a long, tough road ahead against a brutal schedule. Sunday in London might be a must-win game against the Browns.

6. Denver Broncos

Wins: Raiders, Bengals
Losses: Colts, Chargers

The Broncos cruised 28-3 on Monday night in front of a bored national audience, but this team has been pretty underwhelming thus far.

Denver's only other win came by one score in a home game against Cam Ward's debut, and though the two losses look like coin flip results, the Broncos were badly outplayed in both games by the numbers.

The offense looked pretty good against a bad Bengals defense, but Denver entered Monday night 31st in Success Rate on the season, ahead of only the terrible Texans. Denver's defense has been good but not elite, throttling bad offenses like it did last season but more than beatable against both Indianapolis and Los Angeles.

Denver's offense still has a lot to prove, and the defense has to show it can get the job done against playoff opponents. Denver has a soft month-long stretch after a trip to Philadelphia this week, but the Broncos might be underdogs in their final seven games of the season. If this offense can't find some more consistent answers, it puts a lot of strain on a no-longer-unbeatable defense every week.

VERDICT: The AFC means life for Denver, otherwise the Broncos would rank a few spots lower. This team is not playing playoff-caliber football.

Tier 4 — Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder

7. Chicago Bears

Wins: Cowboys, Raiders
Losses: Vikings, Lions

What you think about the Bears so far probably depends a lot on what you want to see.

Caleb Williams is clearly improving. He's managing the pocket much better and starting to find more accuracy on downfield passes, and Ben Johnson is consistently scheming receivers open. Rome Odunze looks like a star.

There's not much else to get excited about yet, though. Williams is still hit or miss, and the run game continues to be totally MIA. The revamped offensive line has been a bit disappointing, and the defense remains a disaster.

Chicago hits the bye week at the perfect time. The Bears badly need to get some rest and health for this defense, and it's an early chance for Ben Johnson to evaluate things after four weeks and see where this team is at.

The Bears could well have won the opener against Minnesota, but they probably lose to the Raiders this week too if not for Geno Smith repeatedly giving them the ball. It feels like 2-2 is about the right mark for this team, but that's also not great in a conference with 12 teams at that number or better, nor in a division where the Bears are still clearly worst of the four.

Chicago has a big opportunity coming out of the bye. First is a potential revenge game in Washington, whose Hail Mary stopped this team from getting to 5-2 last season and sent them into a tailspin. The Saints are beatable up next, and suddenly games against the Ravens and Bengals after that could be perfectly timed if both QBs are out.

It hasn't always been pretty, but there's a world where Chicago pulls things together during the bye and suddenly gets to 6-2 heading into November.

VERDICT: I'm not exactly heading back to Bears Island, but Chicago survived this September stretch and gets some luck with the early bye to get healthy and a winnable October schedule with three star quarterbacks banged up. Could Chicago's luck be turning?

8. Washington Commanders

Wins: Giants, Raiders
Losses: Packers, Falcons

We probably know less about the Commanders so far than any team on the list.

Washington cruised to easy wins against the moribund Giants and Raiders but also got thoroughly outplayed by the Packers and Falcons. That's pretty much par for the course, especially considering Jayden Daniels missed two of those games and played hurt in a third.

The Commanders are probably fortunate to sit at 2-2 considering the influx of injuries to Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and across the defense so far. Washington's run defense has actually been quite stout, and its rushing attack has surprised again like it did last season under Kliff Kingsbury.

Some of the underlying metrics here are actually pretty strong in Washington's favor. The Commanders rank top six in DVOA, rushing offense, and run defense. Washington has also had an elite special teams unit thus far. I believe in the special teams, but I'm skeptical on the rest of the metrics, especially against the soft schedule so far.

Washington plays three of its next four on the road against the Chargers, Cowboys, and Chiefs, with a home Monday night game against the Bears in between. We'll learn plenty more soon.

VERDICT: The Commanders, Broncos, and Seahawks are the three coin-flippiest teams to make the playoffs at books, with Washington slightly favored to miss and Denver slightly favored to make. I'll use this space to make a bet on the third team. I love Seattle to make the playoffs at -115 (ESPN Bet) and have already bet Seattle against the Bucs Sunday too. FTN would have Seattle -200 to make the playoffs.

9. Arizona Cardinals

Wins: Saints, Panthers
Losses: 49ers, Seahawks

The Cardinals have yet to play a game with more than a five-point margin, so 2-2 on four coin flips sounds about right.

But that should not feel like an inspiring outcome against this schedule — two against the Saints and Panthers, plus a third against a backup QB in Mac Jones.

Arizona has arguably been outplayed in every game, even against that soft schedule. The Cardinals are one of only five teams to be outgained in every single game this season.

Arizona's rushing attack has not been there and appears to badly miss departed run coordinator Klayton Adams, along with James Conner, of course. Kyler Murray remains hit or miss at all times.

Arizona's defense has been its relative strength so far especially against the run, but those defensive metrics have come against Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, and Sam Darnold. This team doesn't really have a strength right now. It's not bad but it's not good either, and that's maybe a worst-case scenario for a team that really needs to pick a direction.

The Cardinals are heavy favorites to get to 3-2 against the Titans, but then they play three of four on the road in Indianapolis, Dallas, and Seattle with a visit from the Packers in between. Arizona is already 0-2 in the division, alone at the bottom of the NFC West, and the NFC has 12 teams at 2-2 or better.

VERDICT: It's hard to feel good about the Cardinals in the loaded NFC. Arizona has lost its rushing identity and doesn't  have any real strength to hang its hat on.

Tier 5 — 2-2 In Name Only

10. Cincinnati Bengals

Wins: Browns, Jaguars
Losses: Vikings, Broncos

There's not much debate about which team belongs last on the list after the Bengals were drubbed 76-13 the last two games.

It looks like a lost season in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow out, and it might finally be time to move on from Zac Taylor, maybe even trade Tee Higgins.

This team never had any defense or blocking to speak of, and it seems clear Jake Browning isn't good enough, even with all those weapons. Cincinnati is the worst rushing team in the league, and Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase can only do so much if they don't have anyone to get them the ball.

Cincinnati is lucky to even be 2-2. They stole wins against the Browns and Jaguars and weren't good in either game. The Bengals have just 821 yards of offense through four games, with three of them under 200, and have allowed 1,591.

This team isn't good. I know it, you know it, and the books know it. Cincinnati is +600 to make the playoffs even at 2-2, and FTN has the Bengals at 9% to make the postseason, about the same as the Browns.

VERDICT: Cincinnati was -160 to miss the playoffs even after a 2-0 start, once Burrow got hurt. Probably shoulda grabbed that ticket while it was available. It's over.

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About the Author

Brandon Anderson is a staff writer at the Action Network, specializing in NFL and NBA coverage. He provides weekly NFL power rankings and picks for every game, as well as contributing to NBA analysis, regularly appearing on the BUCKETS Podcast. With a deep background in sports betting and fantasy football, Brandon is known for spotting long-shot futures and writing for various outlets like Sports Illustrated, BetMGM, and more before joining the Action Network.

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