Koerner’s Week 8 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s Week 8 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS & Straight-Up Picks article feature image

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  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to label confidence ratings for his Week 8 NFL picks.
  • Below you'll find 1-32 rankings for both straight-up and against-the-spread picks.
  • You'll also get access to a spreadsheet that will return personalized ratings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 8 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

NFL Week 8 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 8 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Vikings

Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 91.1%

2. Steelers

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 90.4%

T-3. Patriots

Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 88%

T-3. Rams

Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 88%

5. Saints

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

6. Lions

Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 75.7%

T-7. Texans

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-7. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-9. 49ers

Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

T-9. Colts

Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

T-11. Titans

Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-11. Packers

Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-11. Seahawks

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-11. Bears

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

15. Bills

Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

16. Eagles

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-17. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-17. Chargers

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Doug Pederson

T-17. Falcons

Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-17. Buccaneers

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-21. Panthers

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-21. Broncos

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-23. Raiders

Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

T-23. Jets

Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

25. Giants

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 24.3%

26. Cardinals

Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

T-27. Bengals

Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 12%

T-27. Browns

Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 12%

29. Dolphins

Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 9.6%

30. Redskins

Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 8.9%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

T-1. Jaguars

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ

T-1. Chiefs

Spread: +4.5
Opponent: vs. GB

T-3. Lions

Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. NYG

T-3. Chargers

Spread: +4
Opponent: @ CHI

T-5. Steelers

Spread: -14.5
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-5. Patriots

Spread: -13
Opponent: vs. CLE

T-5. Texans

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. OAK

T-5. 49ers

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. CAR

T-5. Titans

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. TB

T-5. Eagles

Spread: +2
Opponent: @ BUF

T-5. Falcons

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. SEA

T-5. Redskins

Spread: +16
Opponent: @ MIN

T-13. Rams

Spread: -13.5
Opponent: vs. CIN

T-13. Saints

Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. ARI

T-13. Colts

Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. DEN

T-13. Broncos

Spread: +6
Opponent: @ IND

T-13. Cardinals

Spread: +10
Opponent: @ NO

T-13. Bengals

Spread: +13.5
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-19. Vikings

Spread: -16
Opponent: vs. WAS

T-19. Seahawks

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ ATL

T-19. Bills

Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. PHI

T-19. Buccaneers

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ TEN

T-19. Panthers

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ SF

T-19. Raiders

Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ HOU

T-19. Browns

Spread: +13
Opponent: @ NE

T-19. Dolphins

Spread: +14.5
Opponent: @ PIT

T-27. Bears

Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. LAC

T-27. Giants

Spread: +7
Opponent: @ DET

T-29. Packers

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: @ KC

T-29. Jets

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ JAX

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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