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We are officially settling into the heart of the NFL season.
After momentarily dropping into the Mariana Trench a couple weeks ago, we got back to our classic winning ways last week. We hit a couple of our big long shots, finished up 1.67 units on the week, and posted an 11.5% ROI.
That marks our fourth week out of five hitting at least a 10% ROI. For the NFL season, our bankroll is sitting pretty at +7.25 units with a 10% ROI on 72.31 units risked.
When you play escalators and mineshafts, you are going to have some peaks and valleys. But if we can reliably churn out double-digit ROIs month over month, we are in a great spot.
Let's get into my NFL Week 6 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 6 Picks, Props, Same-Game Parlays
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Panthers vs Eagles
This is one of the more weirdly intriguing games of the week, but it's also an awful scheduling spot. Philly is flying back from London with no rest in between, while Carolina is coming off a bye week.
The Eagles' roster is ravaged by injuries. They are likely without Saquon Barkley and edge rushers Jalyx Hunt and Jonathan Greenard again. Center Drew Kendall is questionable, which would mark their fourth missing offensive line starter — and then the breaking news: Jalen Hurts is out with a blood clot in his leg. It's a scary situation and means Tanner McKee will step in indefinitely.
I really wanted to just back a hot Panthers team, but the value has vanished. This line was Philly -6.5 on the preseason lookahead and has rocketed to Carolina -3.5.
Carolina is actually top 10 in offensive DVOA under coordinator Brad Idzik, but it could be fake since the Panthers compiled those numbers against Chicago, Atlanta with Cooper Rush, Cleveland, and Detroit.
My research shows the best way to bet tired teams returning from international trips has been the opponent's team total over. Opponents So, I am attacking this tired Philadelphia secondary with Bryce Young.
Young is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league against man coverage, but he smashes against zone. Vic Fangio's scheme is zone-heavy, and Jalen Coker (who excels against zone) is back for Carolina.
This once-proud Eagles defense is allowing 298 passing yards per game over their last three outings, second-most in the NFL.
Young is averaging an absurd 317 passing yards per game this season, clearing 287+ yards in all four games. His 227.5-yard line is way off the market.
The bet: Bryce Young Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetRivers)
Escalator bets: Young 250+ Passing Yards (+155 at BetRivers) / 275+ Passing Yards (+285 at BetRivers)
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Jets vs Patriots
The market continues to be low on the Jets. I make this line closer to Patriots -5, so Jets +7.5 crosses a couple of crucial key numbers.
I don't even think the Jets are a good team — I just think they are competent. They have been highly competitive in all five games this year, so why wouldn't they be here?
The way you beat this Jets team is by running the ball. New York ranks 26th in run defense DVOA) The problem? The Patriots aren't running well, starting tackle Will Campbell is out, and TreVeyon Henderson is expected to miss this game, removing their explosiveness.
Aaron Glenn's secondary has been surprisingly strong. Veterans Minkah Fitzpatrick and Brandon Stephens have stabilized the unit, while second-year corner Azareye'h Thomas and safety Dane Belton are breaking out.
I lean toward the Under and the Jets, and you certainly don't prefer a Jets ticket chasing Drake Maye in a shootout, so I'll play them together.
The bet: Jets +7.5 & Under 43.5 SGP (+265 at Fanatics)
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Titans vs Colts
The Colts are touchdown favorites against the Titans, and they absolutely should be. Indy has ripped off six straight wins against Tennessee, averaging 31.8 points per game in that stretch, including 38 and 41 points last year.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen is an incredible 18-4 against teams that finish below .500, and that will obviously include the Titans this year. This looks like a great teaser leg.
You always want to target running backs against the Titans. Tennessee allowed 17 rushing touchdowns to running backs last year, second most in the NFL. The lead back facing Tennessee has scored a touchdown in three of five games this year.
The Titans only allowed multiple touchdowns to a single running back twice last year, and they only allowed 100 rushing yards twice. Both times, it was Jonathan Taylor.
Some matchups, you know exactly who you are looking for. Taylor’s last three games against the Titans are absurd: 29/218/3, 17/102/3, and 12/153/3.
Taylor's prices are properly inflated — his yardage prop is the highest on the board, and his anytime TD is north of -250) — so we are skipping the median and playing just escalators.
Taylor already has three multi-touchdown games this season, and eight of the Colts' 11 offensive touchdowns this year are rushing scores. He scored 3+ touchdowns in all five of his multi-TD games last year.
Taylor has scored in 13 of his last 20 games, and in eight of those games, he scored at least twice.
The bet: Jonathan Taylor 2+ Touchdowns (+205 at DraftKings)
Escalator bet: Jonathan Taylor 3+ Touchdowns (+900 at FanDuel)
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Buccaneers vs Steelers
The Steelers are way overrated in the market. Pittsburgh is sitting as a 2.5-point favorite, but I have these teams ranked back-to-back in my power ratings, which means I actually have the Bucs favored here. I make the line Tampa Bay -2 even with Jalon Daniels running the offense instead of Baker Mayfield.
The total is below 40, and this game looks windy. Points will be at a premium, which inherently helps the underdog. Wind puts extra emphasis on the running game, and I trust Tampa Bay's rushing attack more, especially with Daniels a threat to take off.
The Bucs' elite offensive tackles will help negate the Steelers' pass rush and give the rookie quarterback a chance.
Pittsburgh's defense is entirely unimpressive, and Tampa's D has been better thus far. The Bucs are also coming off extended rest after a huge season-saving win on Thursday Night Football over the Cowboys.
Aaron Rodgers has shown he likes to attack the middle of the field, and Todd Bowles' defense is typically weak there.
The Bucs have ranked in the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed to tight ends for four straight seasons. They have allowed 3+ catches to a tight end 22 times in their last 22 games, 4+ catches 14 times, and 5+ catches 10 times. That's Pat Freiermuth's music, so let's play his receptions.
This is my biggest spread differential of the week and an easy Tampa Bay pick. However, I don't love backing an undrafted rookie quarterback in a coin-flip game at -110 juice. If things go bad here, they could go really bad.
Let's make it worth our while. Since 2015, of the 142 home 'dogs of under three points that won straight up, 86 of them (60%) won by 7+ points. Also, 11 of the last 15 Steelers losses have come by 7+ points. When the Steelers don't have it, they really don't have it.
I'll play an alternate Bucs line and pair it with Freiermuth's production in a trailing game script against Tampa Bay's pressure.
The bet: Bucs -6.5 (+330 at Fanatics)
The bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365)
Escalator bet: Freiermuth 5+ Receptions (+270 at FanDuel)
The SGP: Buccaneers -6.5 & Pat Freiermuth 5+ Receptions (+1068 at FanDuel)
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Cardinals vs Rams
There are plenty of reasons to talk yourself into the Cardinals. Alaric Jackson is out for Los Angeles, it's a short week for the Rams, and Arizona's offense looks kind of good, right?
Don't overcomplicate this. You know exactly which team is better. Just take the Rams.
Los Angeles has won 16 of its last 19 against the Cardinals. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than seven points. Fifteen of the 19 were won by double digits, including Rams victories by 17 and 28 points last year.
This is just what the Cardinals do against good football teams: they get killed. The Cardinals lost by 24 to Seattle and Detroit this year, and trailed San Francisco by 17 in the second half before a backdoor garbage-time cover.
Since the midpoint of last season, Arizona is 1-13. That stretch includes blowout losses of 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 24, and 28 points— all to good teams.
Keep the handicap simple.
The bet: Rams -12 (Fanatics)
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Bills vs Raiders
The market has overcorrected on the Raiders.
Las Vegas has lost two in a row but played Kansas City mostly even before getting exposed by Drake Maye. I am not convinced the Bills can attack this Las Vegas defense in the same way Maye just did. Buffalo does not feature the same explosive downfield passing ability.
The old Sean McDermott defense was elite against tight ends and limited explosives. This year's unit does neither.
Brock Bowers should have another big game, and the Raiders will score points.
Buffalo's defense is also tired. They were on the field for 78 plays and 37 minutes of possession against the Rams on Monday Night Football, and now have to turn around on a short week.
Weeks 6-7 underdogs of 7 points or less playing against teams that are 80+% ATS like Buffalo are an incredible 41-16-1 ATS (72%), covering by an average of 5.4 points.
I make Buffalo less than a field-goal favorite, so getting +5.5 gives us several key numbers.
Even if I am wrong and Buffalo is vastly superior, the back door is wide open with this defense.
The Bills rank near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive metric, especially against the pass, and have left the door open in all five games this year. Only their win against a tired Detroit defense came by more than one score.
The bet: Raiders +5.5 (bet365)
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Chargers vs Chiefs
This total has already dropped three points from 45.5, but it has not fallen far enough. This is a weird rivalry that always seems to produce close, low-scoring grinders.
The Chargers have won outright or kept it to a one-score game in 11 of their last 12 against Kansas City. The last five matchups averaged a total of 33.4 points, with four of those five going under 42.5 and three finishing below 30.
The Chiefs had won 19 of 22 in this series before the Chargers swept them last year, winning the Brazil opener and then again in game where Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL.
The Chargers cannot score on anyone right now. They’ve posted 14, 14, 16, 23, and 17 points this year — and that 23-point game was sitting at 13 until eight minutes of garbage time against Seattle.
The Chargers are last in offensive DVOA, Justin Herbert looks completely lost, and the entire offensive line is injured. There are even rumors that Adam Gase might replace Mike McDaniel soon.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are severely lacking juice. They are missing Tyquan Thornton and likely Rashee Rice. Kansas City is just going to grind out a boring win against a quietly solid Chargers defense.
The Under trends here are staggering. I have found eight strong situational trends pointing to the under in this spot — the most I’ve ever seen in Bet Labs.
Since 2022, Mahomes home unders as a favorite are 23-8 (74%).
It looks windy, and windy unders over the last five seasons hit at 61%. When the total is under 44, Herbert unders are 62%, and Jim Harbaugh unders are 39-26 (60%, the best in the system). Totals with a line drop to between 39 and 44 hit the under at 55% on a large sample.
The Chargers are 4-1 to the under this season, with four of their games landing right at 40 points.
The bet: Under 42.5
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Cowboys vs Packers
This is one of those days where we are actually waiting all day for Sunday Night.
There will be points. If you play fantasy football, start everyone. This is the highest total of the week (53.5 and rising) and features the fastest projected tempo. It is hard to imagine either defense getting many stops.
Dallas' offense has been exactly as good as everyone hoped, while the defense has been just as bad as everyone feared. Jordan Love is going to relentlessly attack downfield.
Dallas has only won one of its last 12 games against Green Bay in this rivalry, but the main theme here is points. These teams tied 40-40 last year in a classic, and the last six meetings have produced totals of 80, 80, 59, 58, 76, and 65, an average of 69.7 points.
You can play the over or even some alts, but with that price so high, why not just play some prop overs?
We were a week early on our Jordan Love escalator, as he exploded for 367 yards last week against the Bears. He has 2+ passing TDs in all five games this season and 300+ yards in three of them. Unfortunately, that's all priced into Love's props already.
But if Love has 300+ yards and multiple scores, who benefits? The entire passing offense filters through Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft. Since Kraft lacks explosiveness in his injury return and Love is big-game hunting, we want the receivers.
Watson has games of 143 and 147 yards, with three 96+ yard performances. He already has six touchdowns in five games and has become Love's go-to red-zone target.
Watson's Anytime TD price (+135) hasn't caught up to his production yet, and he has already recorded two multi-touchdown games this year.
Golden has topped 95+ yards in three games, recording a 40+ yard catch in all three. Dallas just allowed catches of 45, 52, and 64 yards its last two games, and last year, the Cowboys surrendered 14 catches of 40+ yards — including a 46-yarder to Golden.
Why pick one when you can just play both? Love has had two quiet games and three monster performances. Look at how Watson and Golden fared in his three big games:
- Week 1: Watson 6/147/2 | Golden 6/95
- Week 3: Watson 7/96/1 | Golden 5/100/1
- Week 5: Watson 6/143/2 | Golden 6/123
For both Watson and Golden, their three best games of the season happened at the exact same time. They're not taking away from one another. When the Packers pass well, they're both producing.
By pairing them together, we are actually getting a negative correlation bonus. Sportsbooks assume that if one receiver has a massive game, it eats into the yardage of the other.
But against this Dallas defense, all things are possible.
We are literally nine yards away from these two hitting 100+ yards each in three separate games this season.
The bets: Christian Watson Anytime TD (+135 at DraftKings) / Matthew Golden Longest Reception 40+ Yards (+350 at bet365)
Escalator bet: Watson 2+ TDs (+950 at DraftKings)
The SGP "BOGO" Bets: Watson & Golden 80+ Receiving Yards Each (+550 at BetRivers) / 90+ Receiving Yards Each (+1000 at BetRivers) / 100+ Receiving Yards Each (+1800 at BetRivers)
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Week 7 Lookahead: Chiefs vs Seahawks
Both of these teams are playing in games this week where the totals have dropped 2+ points and are continuing to fall — and both teams could easily struggle to hit 40 combined points in their respective matchups.
The Chiefs stayed below 44.5 points in 11 of 17 games last year. How many times have we seen this exact Patrick Mahomes primetime script? Slow, grinding drives against two great defenses that completely chew up the clock.
Seattle's offense has lost its explosiveness this season, and while Kansas City has found some juice, the Seahawks' defense is built to contain it.
The 44.5 total is crucial because every number between 40 and 44 is a key number. Grab the under in next week's Sunday Night Football game now.
Week 7 Lookahead Pick: Under 44.5 (FanDuel)
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