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Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 6 on Sunday, October 18.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 6.
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NFL Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Steelers vs Buccaneers |
| Panthers vs Eagles |
| Jets vs Patriots |
| Bears vs Falcons |
| Ravens vs Browns |
| Saints vs Giants |
| Titans vs Colts |
| Cardinals vs Rams |
| Chargers vs Chiefs |
| Bills vs Raiders |
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Oh man! The weather alerts for this game are making me quite uneasy about touchdown scorers. When the projected wind gusts start to reach 20 mph or higher, that’s when I start to get worried about scoring via the pass.
If deep shots are out of the equation, let’s keep it on the ground for the Buccaneers and take QB Jalon Daniels at +400.
Through three games, we’ve all waited for Daniels to score his first TD — he’s had a carry inside the 10-yard line in all both starts.
If you wanted to take WR Emeka Egbuka at +300 or better, he’d be my next choice, but let’s take Daniels to use his legs in a windstorm.
Heavy winds or sunny skies, there’s absolutely no reason Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth should still be at +300 or better to score a TD. He’s coming off a two-touchdown game and he has scored in three of five games this season.
Like a lot of TEs now, Freiermuth is also the short-yardage tush push option for the Steelers and he leads the team with three end-zone targets to go with it.
Freiermuth is clearly trusted by QB Aaron Rodgers, and his aDOT is quite low to ensure Rodgers won’t have to bomb it deep to connect for a score.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge that my colleague Nick Giffen loves the under so much in this game, he’s actually looking to take alternate unders because of his model projections.
I jokingly mentioned “No Touchdown” at 100-1, and he said that’s absolutely on the table. So, we’ll sprinkle with a pizza bet on that market as well.
VERDICT: Jalon Daniels +400 | Pat Freiermuth +350 | Sprinkle on “No Touchdown” at +10000
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Panthers vs. Eagles
Hear me out: Quarterback Tanner McKee will be an upgrade for the Eagles.
This isn’t me disparaging Jalen Hurts (put the pitchforks away, Eagles fans), but more pointing out that a traditional pocket passer like McKee could elevate his pass-catchers when facing a porous defense like the Panthers'.
Carolina’s secondary remains ravaged with injuries and if you’re going to give me TE Dallas Goedert at +300 or better, I’m going to take it every time.
The Panthers have given up a TD to a TE in three of four games this season, and by all accounts, Goedert is fully healthy and the only Eagles TE that isn't on the injury report.
Even in his first game back in London, Goedert led the team in targets per route run, and with Hurts and Saquon Barkley out, Goedert is the only tush push option left for the Eagles.
My guy Jalen Coker is back! The Panthers third-year WR fully practiced all week after missing Week 4 and a bye in Week 5.
Coker should be fully ready to make an impact again, and because he lines up over 50% of the time in the slot, this is a much better matchup for him than WR Tetairoa McMillan.
McMillan will likely see plenty of CB Quinyon Mitchell, and those are the matchups I tend to avoid because the targets start to shift from outside towards the middle with the pass funnel defense.
McMillan might still be able to break free and score — but at +185, I’d rather take Coker.
VERDICT: Dallas Goedert +320 | Jalen Coker +300
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Jets vs. Patriots
The Patriots' passing offense finally found the magic over the last two games with QB Drake Maye, and he finally had a game where he didn’t throw an interception.
Facing the Jets this week, I expect the Pats to keep rolling, and the receiver that I think could see another TD look this week is Efton Chism at +650.
Chism has been bumped up to the WR3 now in this offense with WR Mack Hollins out — and even if A.J. Brown returns, he’ll likely be eased back in.
Chism has seen 10 targets over the last two games while catching a TD against the Bills, and he could be used on a lot more underneath routes or check downs from the slot with RB TreVeyon Henderson out.
Jets WR Garrett Wilson has been my go-to early this season for the Jets, and after scoring TDs in three of the first five games, we’re going to keep going back to him at this price.
Wilson is leading the Jets in nearly every receiver metric such as targets per route run, yards per route run, and first-read target share.
Facing the Patriots will certainly be an uphill battle with CB Christian Gonzalez back, but Wilson is too talented to warrant this price, and his usage is off the charts.
Another factor that may bode well for Wilson is the Patriots tend to use a lot of man coverage (second-highest rate), and his stats against man defenses this year are comparable to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
If you want to take a hard look at TE Kenyon Sadiq instead at +350, I’d strongly consider him after Wilson — but in a trailing game script on the road, the Jets could be in full-on throw mode in the second half.
VERDICT: Garrett Wilson +210 | Efton Chism +650
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Bears vs. Falcons
I have a long list of players who have fallen just short of the end zone in 2026, and Bears TE Colston Loveland is unfortunately on that list.
In Week 3, Loveland thought he scored a TD — it was overturned because he was downed at the 1-yard line.
Loveland may end up scoring this week, but if QB Caleb Williams is back and healthy, I’m taking him to score a TD instead.
Williams scored twice in the opener, and the Falcons may not be overly concerned with his scrambling ability coming off the hamstring injury.
The Falcons' run defense has been decent this year, but with Williams back, they won’t be able to load the box to stop it given how many receiving weapons the Bears have at their disposal.
This is another attempt to get ahead of the market, because if Williams is healthy and he scores, this will plummet below +300 going forward.
For the Falcons, I feel like I got lucky last week by tempting fate with TE Kyle Pitts. I was able to cash the TD bet, but it was a reception on a pass that wasn't really intended for him.
If you want to go back to Pitts this week, I understand, but I want a deep threat here — and that’s WR2 Jahan Dotson at +400.
In three games this year with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, Dotson has only seen 10 targets, but three were in the end zone, with one leading to a 31-yard touchdown catch in Week 4.
Dotson is exactly the type of receiver the Falcons need to take the top off the Bears defense. He leads the team in aDOT and deep targets (four).
The Bears have only allowed six passing TDs so far this season, but five of those were to wide receivers — and Chicago ranks 31st in defensive DVOA against the deep pass with seven completions of 40+ yards allowed.
VERDICT: Caleb Williams +350 | Jahan Dotson +400
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Ravens vs. Browns
I bet on Mark Andrews to score a TD against the Falcons, and in classic fashion, he dropped a pass in the end zone and then fumbled on his next target.
It was an absolute disaster class in a series of mishaps for Andrews. That being said, I can’t think of a better bounce-back spot than Andrews to rebound and catch a TD against the Browns in Week 6.
Andrews has dominated the Browns over the course of his career with 12 TDs in 16 career matchups against them. Cleveland is the team he’s scored the most on in his career.
Another factor is Tyler Huntley. Even though his passing TD went to a WR last week, he’s thrown 10 of his 14 career TDs to the TE position.
The injuries are starting to pile up for the Browns' run game with RB Quinshon Judkins nursing an ankle injury and RB Dylan Sampson now on IR.
The Browns' run game will likely be split between Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime if Judkins is out, and while they could ultimately still chew up some yards, I’d rather take QB DeShaun Watson at +500 to score his first TD of the season.
To his credit, Watson is continuing to use his legs to extend plays or scramble. He’s averaging just over seven carries per game while ranking third amongst all quarterbacks in total scrambles.
Watson has also been a bit more conservative in the red zone so far this year. He tends to throw it away or take off and run.
As a home 'dog in a divisional matchup, I’ll take my chances on Watson when we getting +500 or better.
VERDICT: DeShaun Watson +500 | Mark Andrews +290
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Saints vs. Giants
I have done pretty well this year when it comes to calling my shot for my favorite TD bet of the week (Trey McBride in Week 1, Tee Higgins in Week 4, Justin Jefferson in Week 5) — and in Week 6, my favorite TD bet is Giants TE Isaiah Likely.
The betting community has been awaiting this breakout ever since he was a member of the Ravens. We saw how impactful he could be when he was the TE1 in the offense.
Now with the Giants, we’re seeing Likely be treated more like a WR2 behind WR Malik Nabers, which means at +200, we’re seeing too high of a price for his TD prop.
In three games with QB Jameis Winston, Likely has led the team in targets per route run and has four red-zone targets — and he's currently coming off a two-touchdown game.
It’s always a bit of a rollercoaster with Winston under center, but if he’s got the green light to throw it downfield, then I want Likely in almost any matchup.
The Saints' passing offense can look like gangbusters one week, and then in other games, they look like they haven’t practiced together all season.
I’m hoping we see more of the former as I go back to WR Devaughn Vele.
Vele has been the certified WR2 in this offense. He’s running the same amount of routes as WR Chris Olave, while also ranking second in red-zone targets behind TE Juwan Johnson.
Vele is on the field so much now that he’s top 10 amongst all WRs in total routes run this year, and he has at least one end-zone target in four of five games.
If you prefer Johnson over Vele, that’s fine by me since both are showing value this week, but I’ll go with the WR this time.
VERDICT: Devaughn Vele +300 | Isaiah Likely +200
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Titans vs. Colts
The reclamation project on WR Laquon Treadwell by the Colts is a sight to behold. I figured he wasn’t long for the NFL but with Indianapolis, but he’s getting quality looks.
Treadwell has seen 14 targets over the last two games, and he has been lining up on the outside for the most part while WR Alec Pierce recovers from injury.
The Colts have managed ways to scheme up the offense for Treadwell, and with three red-zone targets and two end-zone targets in that span, this is hard production to ignore at +550.
Another factor is this is an indoor game against the Titans, which sets up well for him because he’s been targeted deep a lot (14.2 aDOT), and Tennessee ranks bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the deep ball and 31st against the pass overall.
Treadwell is my favorite Colt this week, but if you are looking for a fun angle, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine plays his former team for the first time since leaving in free agency. If you recall, he played five seasons with Tennessee and (improbably) scored nine TDs in 2024.
In almost every Titans game, all the TD value is on their side. Through five weeks, I’m 0-5 on picking Titans TD scorers — but I think we go to second-year WR Elic Ayomanor at +550.
While he is definitely at least third in the pecking order for Titans pass-catchers, they love finding ways to get him involved in the red zone.
Ayomanor has only scored one TD so far (Week 1), but he is the only Titan to see at least one red-zone target in all five games.
Part of the reason why we’re getting +550 is because the Titans offense has been so pitiful that almost any touchdown feels like a surprise rather than an expectation.
VERDICT: LaQuon Treadwell +500 | Elic Ayomanor +600
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Cardinals vs. Rams
At first, I was looking at ways to get creative with Cardinals TD scorers, but the more you dive into the data, it’s hard to pass on TE Trey McBride.
McBride is clearly the No. 1 receiving option in the offense with 10+ targets in each game, while leading the team with 10 red-zone targets.
Facing a Rams defense that will likely be out for blood after losing in Week 5, this could be a trailing game script the entire way for Arizona — and that will likely lead to QB Jacoby Brissett spamming McBride with targets for the majority of the afternoon.
The Rams really leave you with no choice with TD scorers because they’re so steamed at the top of the oddsboard. But because the pass offense is so prolific, you can sometimes find some hidden value with long shots like TE3 Davis Allen (+850) — but he’s only running routes at a 22% rate over the last two games, which means his opportunities are few and far between.
Instead, I think we just default to TE Tyler Higbee at +270.
Higbee has recorded five or more catches in each of the Rams' last three games — and today he faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed four TDs to TEs over their last three games.
VERDICT: Trey McBride +170 | Tyler Higbee +270
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Chargers vs. Chiefs
I know he’s old, and I know he’s past his prime, but Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is still heavily involved in the Chiefs' passing game.
Kelce has scored two TDs and leads the team in targets per route run. If the Chiefs are moving the ball downfield, he’s always going to be a red-zone threat and a key target for QB Patrick Mahomes.
Why I highlight that he’s old, the Chiefs are coming off their bye week, and veterans like Kelce tend to benefit from the rejuvenation more than ever.
The Chargers' offensive line is being held together by scotch tape and exercise bands at this stage of the season. Both of their starting tackles are injured after their center was hurt in training camp.
It’s hard to feel great betting on any Charger right now, but if you’re giving me RB Omarion Hampton at +270, this feels like a steal.
Hampton has scored in three of five games for the Chargers, and while RB Keaton Mitchell or RB Kimani Vidal have vultured some scores, this is still Hampton’s backfield.
Hampton has logged 12 red-zone carries this season. He is the only Chargers running back to carry the ball inside the 10-yard line and five-yard line.
Given the lack of receiving options for L.A. and the offense that head coach Jim Harbaugh typically likes to run, I’ll lean on Hampton to score another TD.
Hampton has technically only played 15 total games during the regular season, and he's scored in eight of them.
VERDICT: Travis Kelce +185 | Omarion Hampton +270
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Bills vs. Raiders
I love Brock Bowers. He’s a matchup nightmare and he should have another solid matchup against the Bills.
That being said, he’s being priced out of the TD market now with his odds to score around +100 at best.
I think now is the time where we pivot back to TE Michael Mayer at +350. Even though Mayer is the TE2, he’s basically just as valuable as a typical TE1 now because the Raiders have made it a point to line Bowers out wide more this year due to their lack of depth at WR, while Mayer assumes the traditional TE role.
The Bills haven't stopped anyone this season, ranking bottom five in passing TDs and scoring defense — and this game features the highest total (53.5) of the week.
If you’re giving me Josh Allen indoors against a shoddy pass defense that has allowed five TDs to WRs over the last two games, I’m going right for the top option — and that looks like WR Keon Coleman at +280.
Coleman is seeing the majority of targets with DJ Moore out, and it's trending that way again in Week 6 after Moore missed practice all week.
Coleman has scored in each of the last two games, leads the Bills with three end-zone targets, and has shown that he is capable of being a short-range threat (seven-yard TD in Week 5) or a deep threat (34-yard TD in Week 4).
VERDICT: Keon Coleman +290 | Michael Mayer +350
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